The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hamed predicts Instagram risks obsolescence due to poor creator monetization
“And we think Instagram is really at risk of going away because the creators on Instagram aren't making enough money to actually make good content.”
Ali Hamed Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 35:23 Ali Hamed – Novel Venture Investing at CoVenture, Venture is Eating the Investment World 5 (Capital Allocators, EP.233)
Insight
Housel: Spending on experiences is often a trap for social status
“One that seems very harmless and innocent is the spend money on experiences. I think it's bad for two reasons. One, a lot of times the experience that you want is what will make a good Instagram picture. That's especially true for young people. And you're not …”
Morgan Housel Oct 20, 2025 ▶ 55:44 Morgan Housel – The Art of Spending Money (EP.466)
Insight
Hamed: YouTube beats Instagram by sharing programmatic ad revenue with creators
“YouTube content is good because YouTubers make money. They use that money to reinvest in production. And you have people like Mr. Beast producing incredible stuff. Instagram is so hard to make money on because Instagram doesn't roll out programmatic ads at sca…”
Ali Hamed Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 34:54 Ali Hamed – Novel Venture Investing at CoVenture, Venture is Eating the Investment World 5 (Capital Allocators, EP.233)
Insight
Walden: Open NFT media libraries let developers build the next Spotify
“One way to think about what's happening with NFTs is we're building this universal open media library on top of which any developer can build the next Spotify or build the next Instagram or build the next Facebook. And when there's a lot more competition, ther…”
Jesse Walden Apr 15, 2021 ▶ 14:18 a16z Podcast with Linda Xie and Jesse Walden - All About NFTS (Capital Allocators, EP.189)
Assertion Contradicted
Dixon: Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram pay zero ad revenue to creators
“Twitter and Facebook have zero dollar revenue share. Instagram is zero dollars. So Instagram makes all their money on advertising. They pay zero out to the creators.”
Chris Dixon Jun 27, 2022 ▶ 13:09 Chris Dixon – Frameworks and Investing at Scale (EP.258, Crypto for Institutions 2, EP.05)
Opinion
Web2 creators are held hostage by the distribution platforms they rely on
“I just think this is one of the big broken pieces of the internet today, is that YouTubers who make their entire career on YouTube don't like YouTube. They have a bad relationship with YouTube. People on Instagram who make their whole career posting on Instagr…”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 33:43 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
Insight
Walden: NFTs establish permanent cryptographic provenance for internet media
“Whereas today, think about an image you see on Instagram. You could screenshot that, you know, crop it, and then paste it on another platform. So like, repaste it on Facebook. And as soon as you do that, you break its entire history, its entire provenance. You…”
Jesse Walden Apr 15, 2021 ▶ 10:52 a16z Podcast with Linda Xie and Jesse Walden - All About NFTS (Capital Allocators, EP.189)
Insight
James Clear: Choosing what to consume directly shapes your future thoughts
“Almost every thought that you have is downstream from what you consume. And so when you are choosing Who to follow on Twitter or Instagram or whatever. When you're choosing what books to read, what news station to watch, or what articles to read, you are choos…”
James Clear Jan 4, 2021 ▶ 48:56 James Clear – Mastering Habits (Capital Allocators, EP.171)
Opinion
Clarkson: Facebook and Instagram should be off-limits for LP due diligence
“I don't know if Facebook and Instagram are fair places to do diligence on people since it becomes so personal. I feel like that should be a bit of a safe space. Some people use it very mindfully, and that's great, but I say a lot of people are just sharing pic…”
Beezer Clarkson Jan 20, 2020 ▶ 58:36 Beezer Clarkson – Sapphire Gem of Early Stage Venture (Capital Allocators, EP.120)
Disclosure
Rochester's investment team strictly avoids using social media for investment operations
“Zero. I don't see a use for it. So we don't use Twitter or Instagram or I had a LinkedIn account. It was a personal account, which I didn't find useful. So I got rid of that.”
Doug Phillips Feb 24, 2020 ▶ 58:27 Doug Phillips – Middle of the Fairway at the University of Rochester (Capital Allocators, EP.123)
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