The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Papic: Trump will likely moderate tariffs to 5-10% rather than 40%
“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”
Papic: US stock market probably bottomed at 4800
“That's why I think we probably reached the bottom at 4800.”
Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US
“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremel…”
Papic: Trump and Biden will both maintain elevated fiscal spending
“I think both of them are likely to pursue very similar policies that keep fiscal thrust, the G in the GDP equation, at a much elevated level than the last cycle for sure.”