Opinion certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Masters: Western Macroeconomic Theory Was Largely Inapplicable to China

Seth Masters · Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38) · Jan 29, 2018 · at 10:21

Former AllianceBernstein CIO Seth Masters reflects on his experience teaching Western economics to government officials in China during the early 1980s.

0:00 / 0:08exact quote · 8.1s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“Macro was actually almost useless for people in China because it was all based on a set of institutions that didn't exist there, and actually still don't in many ways.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Seth Masters

Prediction Held up
China can sustain 5% to 6% growth without infrastructure spending
“That part of GDP is actually growing quite robustly and will continue to grow, I think, for another at least five to seven years, maybe even 10, but also not forever. And because that's growing at almost 10% a year now, and it's about half of the Chinese econo…”
Seth Masters Jan 29, 2018 ▶ 15:13 Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38)
Opinion
Institutional boards commit a massive governance error by obsessing over benchmarks
“Now, in my experience, most boards and other bodies that are overseeing pots of money end up spending surprisingly little time on that issue of What are we here to achieve, and how do we make sure that we're maximizing the chances of succeeding at that and min…”
Seth Masters Jan 29, 2018 ▶ 28:30 Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38)
Insight
Low-volatility risk models will misclassify normal downturns as extreme anomalies
“If we are going to see a transition from abundant liquidity to less abundant liquidity, the risk of something going wrong and the penalty for that thing going wrong when it does are going to be higher than what we've experienced recently. And when that happens…”
Seth Masters Jan 29, 2018 ▶ 42:50 Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38)
Insight
Industry reliance on third-party risk models creates severe systemic market risk
“Almost everybody these days actually uses risk models that someone else developed. There's only a few someone else's, and they're all competing with each other in a marketplace. So guess what? There's conversion thinking on this, which is really bad, because e…”
Seth Masters Jan 29, 2018 ▶ 47:11 Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Masters: Investors who exploit common risk model vulnerabilities will make fortunes
“What I think you're going to see is that the people who understand where those vulnerabilities are and think about that creatively are going to make a lot of money off of it.”
Seth Masters Jan 29, 2018 ▶ 47:29 Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Masters: The next inflation surprise will throw markets completely haywire
“And so when we do have the next inflationary surprise, It's going to throw all of this completely haywire and it's going to be underpriced in the market as well.”
Seth Masters Jan 29, 2018 ▶ 51:09 Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38)
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 700 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.