Jon Wertheim outlines his expectations for retail sports betting outcomes and the parallels with institutional investing.
0:00 / 0:37exact quote · 37.8s
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“People that place bets based on emotion are going to get burned. I think we're going to have a lot of conspiracy theories. I think there are going to be very few winners, and I think like Investing in general. I think there are going to be winners that are going to emerge, and there are going to be models that are going to prove successful over the long term, and I think this is going to be divided into a very, very small subset of people that are doing this with discipline and research and responsibly, and the Floyd Mayweathers who wake up feeling like Duke's going to win the NCAA tournament, so I'm just going to throw money on Duke”
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More from Jon Wertheim
PredictionOpen · timeframe Jun 2024
Wertheim: Sports betting will be ubiquitous, mobile, and live in-game
“I mean, I think that pretty soon we're going to be at a place where sports gambling, in different iterations, is going to be legal everywhere, that we're not just betting on point spreads and Whether the Patriots are going to beat the Jets, but we're going to …”
Wertheim: Tennis is one of the most underleveraged assets in sports
“To me, it's one of the great, if we're going to stay in business terms, this is one of the great under leveraged assets. I mean, this sport to me has so much going for it.”
Wertheim: Tennis lags behind other sports in data analytics adoption
“Tennis does not do very well on the analytics front, and I don't know if that is just It hasn't thought creatively. I don't know if it's the fact that it's not like you can rig up an NBA arena and you're good for 40 days, right? I mean, this is a circuit, so i…”
Wertheim: Raw tennis metrics like serve percentage are often misleading without context
“If you serve 90% of your first serves, Well, that's an extraordinarily high number. Ted must have been having a tremendous serving day. Or was Ted playing too conservatively and hitting the ball into the middle of the box and not taking chances, and that 90% i…”
Wertheim: Sports and Investing Resist Acknowledging the Role of Luck
“Luck in some ways is, is really anathema to sports, right? We work hard and we game plan and we strategize and we compete and we sweat. We don't want to think that this is just in the hands of fate or coin flip. I mean, in some ways, luck is very much at odds …”
Sports executives often prioritize job preservation over maximizing team wins
“And so a lot of times in sports, you end up with decisions being made that actually don't maximize your chances of winning. But what they maximize is your chance of keeping a job.”
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