Opinion
Dorsey: Buffett's Maxim About Idiot-Proof Businesses Has Done More Harm Than Good
“That phrase from Buffett has probably done more harm than good over time to a lot of investors in not interrogating the quality of management or underweighting signals that maybe capital allocation is poor, that management's incentives aren't aligned because t…”
Opinion
Dorsey: Founder-Run Businesses Perform No Better Than Non-Founder-Owned Companies
“I don't think they're any better than non-founder owned businesses.”
Opinion
Dorsey: 99.9% of American CEOs Are Overpaid Relative to Value Created
“99.9% of American CEOs are overpaid relative to the value they create.”
Opinion
Dorsey: Adobe's Aggressive Pricing Makes Customers Eager to Switch to AI
“You're seeing this right now with Adobe. There's an AI problem here. Had they not been so aggressive in pricing over time, would the customers be as willing to switch to new AI tools? It's an interesting counterfactual to think about.”
Disclosure
Dorsey: Dorsey Passed on CoStar Due to CEO Stock Sales and Misalignment
“The CEO in that case was successful, but for a founder, he largely had sold stock along the way, so he didn't retain a large ownership stake in the company. If all that spend and competing with Zillow didn't work out, shareholders were probably going to suffer…”
Insight
Dorsey: Fortune 500 CEOs Rise via Corporate Politics, Not Capital Allocation
“How does someone get to be the CEO of a Fortune 500 company or a Euro stocks 50 company? By demonstrating skill as a capital allocator all through their career? That's a giant pile of hooey. They do it by being a good self promoter, a good corporate politician…”
Insight
Dorsey: Discounted Cash Flow Models Undervalue Moat Businesses by Assuming Fading Returns
“The thing that a DCF is quite poor at, even though people think it's long-term oriented, is that mathematically a DCF assumes that the multiple fades.
It assumes that returns on capital fade to cost capital.
But if we're looking for Modi businesses and we're t…”
Opinion
Dorsey: Michael Porter's Framework Fails to Answer if Industries Are Attractive
“Porter was a consultant. His goal was to say, hey, dude, you run a widget company. How do you make your widget company better than the other widget company? He never answers the question, are widgets even a decent business?”
Insight
Dorsey: Companies Sustaining 15%+ Returns Over 15 Years Rely on Four Moats
“We had data back to the sixties and looked at every company that had done more than 15% returns on capital for more than 15 years. Totally arbitrary numbers. The idea was, instead of theorizing, let's just get the data. Let's get the companies that have done t…”
Opinion
Dorsey: Equity Research Is a Commodity Indistinguishable Without the Firm's Logo
“To be totally blunt, equity research is a commodity. You take the logo off the top and you don't know who wrote it.”
Insight
Dorsey: Return on Capital Is Increasingly Useless for Evaluating Modern Moats
“Today, I would argue return on capital is less useful. As a touchstone for does a company have competitive advantage? Because if you don't have any capital and your denominator is nothing, it's pretty easy to generate a high ratio, right? It's just math. There…”
Disclosure
Dorsey: Dorsey Shifted Investment Criteria From 70% Moat to 70% Management
“When Dorsey Asset launched in 2014, I was probably 60, 70 moat and 30 management. So you want to weight things, and I'm probably the reverse today. That's largely because I've seen just how poorly people can behave and how much damage they can do to even a gre…”
Insight
Dorsey: Charismatic Managers Carry Elevated Risks of Severe Left-Tail Value Destruction
“I do think they have greater risk of left-tail outcomes, of not listening or taking the company down a path that destroys value and not changing course when things are observably not going well.”
Insight
Dorsey: Serial M&A Is a Learned Skill That Most Public Companies Lack
“Acquiring companies in the way of a Danaher or a Transdime or a Constellation, it's a learned skill. You iterate, you go back and say, okay, what were our deal assumptions and how did they work out? What do we learn from that? What do we lean into? What do we …”
Insight
Dorsey: Businesses With Narrower Moats but Long Reinvestment Runways Make Better Investments
“Marketplaces have great network effects. The trouble is, and you've seen this with eBay, you see this with some of the European online listings companies, once you get that market, now what? It's a great mode, but if you don't have anywhere to put the cash, Ma…”
Insight
Dorsey: High-Return Internal Reinvestment Beats Returning Capital by Lowering Allocation Risks
“If I've got a choice between company A, that is constantly giving me back the money, and then I need to go reinvest it in a super competitive public equity market, or company B, which can plow it back into a 20% return capital internal project, the math is obv…”
Opinion
Dorsey: Utilities, Energy, Life Insurance, and Auto Parts Are Structurally Bad Businesses
“Utilities and oil and gas and life insurance and auto parts and auto OEMs, which are all not good businesses.”
Opinion
Dorsey: The SEC Is the Toughest Securities Regulator on the Planet
“One is called the SEC, which is the nastiest securities regulator on the planet, which is great for us as investors.”
Opinion
Dorsey: U.S. Corporate Executives Are Better Capital Allocators Than International Peers
“They're generally better managers, and they're generally better at capital allocation than you see outside the US.”
Assertion Partly supported
Dorsey: Competent U.S. Executives Earn Five Times More Than European Company Leaders
“If you're a good manager in any industry, running a U.S. Company, you're probably going to make five X what you would make even running a sizable European company.”
Insight
Dorsey: Low Portfolio Turnover Is Excessively Romanticized in the Investment Industry
“Low turnover sometimes gets put on a pedestal. The platonic ideal of the investor is you buy a few stocks that are wonderful and compound, and then you sit around reading annual reports for 10 years and watch the money roll in. The reality is, of course, very …”
Insight
Dorsey: Fund Managers Privilege Obscure, Complex Ideas Over Cheap Mega-Cap Stocks
“Unusual ideas often get privileged in our industry. If it's unusual, if it's hard to understand, if you had to do all this detective work on the balance sheet to find out the value of this hidden asset, that is a sexier pitch for the client than mega cap X at …”
Insight
Dorsey: Allocators Face Harder Underwriting Than Public Equity Investors
“You can never be too transparent. That's the biggest lesson. I've met investors who won't write about positions. You have to pry information out of them about the companies that they own. Clients don't like that. Somebody investing with you as a manager, they …”
Insight
Dorsey: Sum-of-the-Parts Valuations Are Absurd Without Explicit Catalysts to Break Up
“And investing is probably some of the parts valuations. They're absurd. If it's a company that's clearly articulated, hey, we're going to break up or we're going to sell off this division or whatever, But if it's a company that has given no evidence that these…”