The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 49 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dorsey: Buffett's Maxim About Idiot-Proof Businesses Has Done More Harm Than Good
“That phrase from Buffett has probably done more harm than good over time to a lot of investors in not interrogating the quality of management or underweighting signals that maybe capital allocation is poor, that management's incentives aren't aligned because t…”
Dorsey: Founder-Run Businesses Perform No Better Than Non-Founder-Owned Companies
“I don't think they're any better than non-founder owned businesses.”
Dorsey: 99.9% of American CEOs Are Overpaid Relative to Value Created
“99.9% of American CEOs are overpaid relative to the value they create.”
Dorsey: Adobe's Aggressive Pricing Makes Customers Eager to Switch to AI
“You're seeing this right now with Adobe. There's an AI problem here. Had they not been so aggressive in pricing over time, would the customers be as willing to switch to new AI tools? It's an interesting counterfactual to think about.”
Dorsey: Dorsey Passed on CoStar Due to CEO Stock Sales and Misalignment
“The CEO in that case was successful, but for a founder, he largely had sold stock along the way, so he didn't retain a large ownership stake in the company. If all that spend and competing with Zillow didn't work out, shareholders were probably going to suffer…”
Dorsey: Fortune 500 CEOs Rise via Corporate Politics, Not Capital Allocation
“How does someone get to be the CEO of a Fortune 500 company or a Euro stocks 50 company? By demonstrating skill as a capital allocator all through their career? That's a giant pile of hooey. They do it by being a good self promoter, a good corporate politician…”
Dorsey: Discounted Cash Flow Models Undervalue Moat Businesses by Assuming Fading Returns
“The thing that a DCF is quite poor at, even though people think it's long-term oriented, is that mathematically a DCF assumes that the multiple fades.
It assumes that returns on capital fade to cost capital.
But if we're looking for Modi businesses and we're t…”
Dorsey: Michael Porter's Framework Fails to Answer if Industries Are Attractive
“Porter was a consultant. His goal was to say, hey, dude, you run a widget company. How do you make your widget company better than the other widget company? He never answers the question, are widgets even a decent business?”
Dorsey: Companies Sustaining 15%+ Returns Over 15 Years Rely on Four Moats
“We had data back to the sixties and looked at every company that had done more than 15% returns on capital for more than 15 years. Totally arbitrary numbers. The idea was, instead of theorizing, let's just get the data. Let's get the companies that have done t…”
Dorsey: Equity Research Is a Commodity Indistinguishable Without the Firm's Logo
“To be totally blunt, equity research is a commodity. You take the logo off the top and you don't know who wrote it.”
Dorsey: Return on Capital Is Increasingly Useless for Evaluating Modern Moats
“Today, I would argue return on capital is less useful. As a touchstone for does a company have competitive advantage? Because if you don't have any capital and your denominator is nothing, it's pretty easy to generate a high ratio, right? It's just math. There…”
Dorsey: Dorsey Shifted Investment Criteria From 70% Moat to 70% Management
“When Dorsey Asset launched in 2014, I was probably 60, 70 moat and 30 management. So you want to weight things, and I'm probably the reverse today. That's largely because I've seen just how poorly people can behave and how much damage they can do to even a gre…”
Dorsey: Charismatic Managers Carry Elevated Risks of Severe Left-Tail Value Destruction
“I do think they have greater risk of left-tail outcomes, of not listening or taking the company down a path that destroys value and not changing course when things are observably not going well.”
Dorsey: Serial M&A Is a Learned Skill That Most Public Companies Lack
“Acquiring companies in the way of a Danaher or a Transdime or a Constellation, it's a learned skill. You iterate, you go back and say, okay, what were our deal assumptions and how did they work out? What do we learn from that? What do we lean into? What do we …”
Dorsey: Businesses With Narrower Moats but Long Reinvestment Runways Make Better Investments
“Marketplaces have great network effects. The trouble is, and you've seen this with eBay, you see this with some of the European online listings companies, once you get that market, now what? It's a great mode, but if you don't have anywhere to put the cash, Ma…”
Dorsey: High-Return Internal Reinvestment Beats Returning Capital by Lowering Allocation Risks
“If I've got a choice between company A, that is constantly giving me back the money, and then I need to go reinvest it in a super competitive public equity market, or company B, which can plow it back into a 20% return capital internal project, the math is obv…”
Dorsey: Utilities, Energy, Life Insurance, and Auto Parts Are Structurally Bad Businesses
“Utilities and oil and gas and life insurance and auto parts and auto OEMs, which are all not good businesses.”
Dorsey: The SEC Is the Toughest Securities Regulator on the Planet
“One is called the SEC, which is the nastiest securities regulator on the planet, which is great for us as investors.”
Dorsey: U.S. Corporate Executives Are Better Capital Allocators Than International Peers
“They're generally better managers, and they're generally better at capital allocation than you see outside the US.”
Dorsey: Competent U.S. Executives Earn Five Times More Than European Company Leaders
“If you're a good manager in any industry, running a U.S. Company, you're probably going to make five X what you would make even running a sizable European company.”
Dorsey: Low Portfolio Turnover Is Excessively Romanticized in the Investment Industry
“Low turnover sometimes gets put on a pedestal. The platonic ideal of the investor is you buy a few stocks that are wonderful and compound, and then you sit around reading annual reports for 10 years and watch the money roll in. The reality is, of course, very …”
Dorsey: Fund Managers Privilege Obscure, Complex Ideas Over Cheap Mega-Cap Stocks
“Unusual ideas often get privileged in our industry. If it's unusual, if it's hard to understand, if you had to do all this detective work on the balance sheet to find out the value of this hidden asset, that is a sexier pitch for the client than mega cap X at …”
Dorsey: Allocators Face Harder Underwriting Than Public Equity Investors
“You can never be too transparent. That's the biggest lesson. I've met investors who won't write about positions. You have to pry information out of them about the companies that they own. Clients don't like that. Somebody investing with you as a manager, they …”
Dorsey: Sum-of-the-Parts Valuations Are Absurd Without Explicit Catalysts to Break Up
“And investing is probably some of the parts valuations. They're absurd. If it's a company that's clearly articulated, hey, we're going to break up or we're going to sell off this division or whatever, But if it's a company that has given no evidence that these…”
Dorsey: Studying Comparative Politics Develops Pattern Recognition for Investing
“Which turned out to be unknowingly good training for what we do as investors, because you're looking at different businesses, understanding them in a deep manner, developing pattern recognition.”
Dorsey: Economic Moat Analysis Remains Predominantly Qualitative Rather Than Quantitative
“The bulk of it is qualitative. Understanding what kind of price the company can take, if it has pricing power, or whether, in some examples, there's what the nomad guys called scale economies shared, where the benefit is not taking price, but passing scale ben…”
Dorsey: High Customer Switching Costs Cut Both Ways by Impeding Acquisition
“Switching costs can cut both ways, because if you have high customer switching costs, then probably your competitors do too. It's hard to get people to switch. You have trouble growing in the high switching cost industries a lot of times.”
Dorsey: Luxury Brand Moats Endure Because Social Signaling Requires Broad Consensus
“If you think about a luxury brand, that's more consensual. I'm not wearing a Rolex because it tells time better. It's because I want people to know I have money. I'm signaling something, but that signal value is only useful if everybody else agrees that a Role…”
Dorsey: Recent Luxury Slumps Stem From Drying Chinese Demand and Local Rivals
“Luxury hasn't done well recently, but I think a lot of that's because you've had a demand source in China drying up and alternative luxury brands being developed in China.”
Dorsey: Seeking Humble Managers Avoids Catastrophic Left-Tail Portfolio Blowups
“My biggest goal is to look for humility because it's easier to find management teams who are unlikely to blow up than who are likely to do amazing things. I'm mainly focused on avoiding that left tail.”
Dorsey: Executives Speaking as if They Own the Company Signals Severe Misalignment
“If managers talk about the company as if it's them, as if they own the company, instead of owning a half a percent of it via options, which is usually the case, that's usually a bad sign, because that means they're more aligned with themselves than with extern…”
Dorsey: Concentrated Portfolios Cannot Tolerate Left-Tail Risks of Unpredictable Managers
“Especially in a concentrated portfolio, we have to think about that left tail risk differently than if we ran 50 stocks. If you run 50 stocks, okay, fine. I'll take a three percent bet on somebody who might be the most amazing manager of all time, but there's …”
Dorsey: Academic Studies Show Corporate Share Buybacks Destroy or Neutralize Value
“There have been large academic studies of corporate buybacks, The favorable interpretation of the evidence is that they've neither created nor destroyed value. The less favorable interpretation of the evidence is they've unbalanced destroyed value.”
Dorsey: Non-Luxury Brand Moats Require Continuous Active Maintenance and Reinvestment
“Non-luxury brands require care and feeding. They require constant maintenance.”
Dorsey: Endowments Back Early Managers Because Smaller Fund Sizes Generate Better Returns
“The endowment and foundation community as one that not only doesn't fear concentration, but also is generally more willing to take a bet on people early in their careers because they realize often when you're smaller, that's when the best returns show up.”
Dorsey: B2B Moats Are Easier to Validate via Customer Interviews Than Consumer Brands
“B to B businesses, you can talk to a dozen customers, and if you get a similar story about the value of the product or service, you can be confident that you're going down the right track. Consumers, you would need to do larger surveys, larger sample sets, and…”
Dorsey: U.S.-Listed Analog Stocks Trade Considerably Higher Than European Market Peers
“It's important to keep an open aperture, because I do see mispricings a lot, where the US-listed analog might be trading four or five turns higher than the European analog, because there's large pools of capital in the US that don't invest in non-ADR securitie…”
Dorsey: Dorsey Asset Management Uses Valuation Multiples Backed by DCFs
“Today, we
Tend to use multiples as our primary touchstone and do a three-stage DCF as a backup to see where there are differences.”
Dorsey: Investors Overvalue Current Portfolio Holdings Due to Behavioral Endowment Bias
“There's a lot of empirically demonstrated behavioral finance evidence that we overvalue what we own. The famous coffee mug study. It's easy to do with your portfolio as well. We're familiar with this company. We've owned it for a while. You don't put it in a l…”
Dorsey: Dorsey Asset Management Caps Individual Position Sizes at 15%
“Our max size is 15. There's no magic to that number. That means that maxed out, we'd be about eight stocks. We've historically owned between 10 and 15. Fifteen's a hard number, one in, one out.”
Dorsey: Portfolio Managers Must Have Personal Comfort With Every Holding
“Sometimes it's the personal comfort level, because at the end of the day, when the numbers are flashing red and the news is bad, I've got to make a decision. That's my job. If I don't have a good feeling about the business, if there's something nagging at me a…”
Dorsey: Most Fund Stock Sales Stem From Investment Errors, Not Profit-Taking
“Most of our sales have come because we got it wrong. The thesis was wrong. Management did something we didn't expect, or we thought they were better capital allocators than they turned out to be. The bulk of our sales have been driven by errors that we needed …”
Dorsey: Concentrated Investors Cannot Compromise on Business Durability or Management Quality
“The biggest one is you can never set the bar too high in terms of the quality of the business or the quality of the management team. Most of our errors have come from compromising on one of those two, that either we thought this was an A business and it turned…”
Dorsey: Most Companies Empirically Revert Over Time to Their Cost of Capital
“Most companies do revert over time to cost capital.”
Dorsey: Moody's and S&P Brand Moats Significantly Lower Corporate Borrowing Costs
“Moody's and S&P, there's a value to that that's been developed over time, that if people see that Moody's is rated the bond, that S&P is rated the bond, they'll pay a lower interest rate than if the bond is rated by Pat's rating service or Ted's rating service…”
Dorsey: ASML Is Dorsey Asset Management's Largest Portfolio Position
“Our largest position right now is ASML, a monopoly in a key part of the semiconductor value chain.”
Dorsey: Offline Q&A on Investment Memos Makes Live Research Meetings More Robust
“We tend to do a lot of offline Q&A on memos because I find that it makes the meeting more robust and more discursive and more of a back and forth because you're not asking, oh, I didn't see what segment margins are for that thing. What was that write off in 20…”