James Aitken
Founder & Managing Partner, Aitken Advisors · 6 appearances on the record.
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analystfounderaitkenadvisors.com ↗
James Aitken founded Aitken Advisors in 2009, operating a macroeconomic consultancy that advises institutional investors and sovereign pools of capital. He previously worked at AIG Financial Products and UBS, where he authored the widely followed market analysis memo Notes from a Small Island.
108statements → 61claims → 25claims resolved → 76%fully supported → 3.68/5average certainty → 2.63/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 21said about them ↓
19 supported 3 partly supported 3 contradicted 36 not checkable as stated how the 61 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
31 predictions · 30 assertions · 24 opinions · 22 insights · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 61 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 25 are resolved, and 36 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how James argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Aitken: Investors will absorb all US Treasury bond issuance through 2025
“Who's going to buy all these bonds that the United States is selling in 2023, 20 24, 2025 with a rising budget deficit before the recession comes?
And my answer is everybody.
Everybody.
You give people the right incentive, the right coupon, they will buy it.”
Their most notable contradicted claim
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
How they sound: not measured why? →
We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of James Aitken on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.
Everything James Aitken said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Applying the US Subprime Crisis Model to China Is Dangerous
“So the common assumption that worries me most about China is that they must have a subprime-like crisis at some point. I'm not sure about that. A financial crisis, some kind of credit cycle, liquidity cycle, defaults, for sure. But to use that subprime mental …”
Global Capital Allocations to Onshore Chinese Equities Will Inevitably Increase
“Whether it be passive money or active money, over the next several years, there will be increasing allocations to Chinese onshore equities, and that's not going to go away.”
The Bank of Japan Is Completely Unable to Exit Asset Purchases
“The Bank of Japan sort of
Waffles from time to time about exiting their asset purchases.
I don't see how they can.
I really don't.”
Probability of Widespread Eurozone Structural Reform Is Rapidly Decreasing
“There's no banking union. There's no capital markets union. And arguably, given the setbacks, the self-inflicted setbacks that Merkel has had, You know, the probability that we're going to get widespread structural reform is going down by the minute”
The 2013 Taper Tantrum Was Not a Bernanke Communication Error
“It's popularly believed that the taper tantrum was a colossal communication error by Ben Bernanke. I'm not so sure about that. He was telling people via his speeches from February, 2013 onwards that he thought U S long-term interest rates were too low and peop…”
Central Bank Warnings on Low Volatility Signal Higher Market Correction Tolerance
“When central bankers privately and publicly tell you over and over again that we're trying to reactivate markets And when they go on and on about, oh, geez, implied volatility's too low, they're actually saying that our tolerance for some kind of market correc…”
Narendra Modi Might Lift More People Out of Poverty Than China
“How many million people is Modi going to lift out of poverty? Right? I reckon it might be more than the Chinese have, but just whisper it.”
Parliamentary Committee Testimony Is More Reliable Than Mainstream Financial Reporting
“There is a tremendous amount of information in testimony provided to various parliamentary committees around the world. Now, I know that sounds awfully anorak, but I'll give you a very important example. By definition, if I'm testifying to a House of Commons o…”
Social Media Platforms Face Severe Problems from Pending Parliamentary Scrutiny
“And when it comes to social media companies, the House of Commons Digital Media Committee has been holding hearings in London and Washington about the role and activities of these social media platforms. And not just because I'm personally interested in it, bu…”
Aitken: Institutional Clients Are Hedging Dollars, Not Dumping US Assets
“Are the clients I work with blanket selling US assets? They are not. For the past month and a half, the tactical ones have been increasing their dollar hedge ratios versus various currencies, which is the first step.”
Aitken: Major US disinflations since 1951 required positive real rates
“As you look at the seven big disinflations in the United States since 1951, the end of the Treasury Fed Accord, those big disinflations only occurred unsurprisingly When the real Fed funds rate or predecessor equivalents were notably positive, which makes a lo…”
Aitken: Large-scale fiscal stimulus requires low sovereign refinancing rates
“The ability to deploy fiscal policy in scale or just fund or socialize losses
Depends on your ability to roll over all your sovereign debt at a fairly predictable, fairly low rate.
Otherwise, it just doesn't work.”
Aitken: US and UK industrials will have full order books indefinitely
“All these very good industrial companies in the United States, and some here in the UK who have US businesses, they're going to have a full order book as far as the eye can see as the ripple effects of the Inflation Reduction Act and the accelerated onshoring …”
Aitken: Japanese equities will continue re-rating and gaining popularity beyond 2023
“There's a whole range of world-class businesses in Japan that have progressively been re-rated, and I would expect that to get more popular. Not just over the remainder of this year, but beyond, particularly if the yen turned around for any reason.”
Aitken: UK institutional property funds face massive discounts on secondary markets
“That there are tremendous discounts available in secondary markets for UK institutional property funds right now. I won't mention the exact discounts, but I'm just seeing very good appetite, ongoing interest from what I'd call global patient capital to provide…”
Aitken: Systematic funds automatically add risk as volatility falls
“There is so much money in these quantum metal strategies that it's as simple as if implied volatility is coming down for any reason. Then these strategies need to add more risk, and that is exactly what's happening”
Aitken: Central banks cannot identify restrictive policy until they have overtightened
“You have no idea what sufficiently restrictive monetary policy is until you are beyond it. That's the tricky thing. And if the Fed is genuine about risk management with regards to inflation, the Fed is incentivized to overdo it.”
US shale companies destroyed roughly $300 billion in capital before 2017
“I think in the 10 years to 20 17, Ted, when I looked it up, US shale companies blew through about three hundred billion of capital.”
Governments will use fiscal spending to offset energy price shocks
“And how are politicians going to assist households with that energy shock, which they hope is a one-off? And the answer is probably more fiscal spending. More transfers to households, and that conversation is already underway.”
Aitken: Post-2008 Rules Restrict Bank Capacity to Intermediate Volatile Markets
“Primary dealer balance sheets and large bank balance sheets around the world are necessarily more constrained as a result of what happened in 2008. But also that does rather limit their ability to intermediate markets, even markets as volatile as the ones we'r…”
Aitken: Multi-Strategy Funds Rely Heavily on Volatility Scaling
“The past several years have been all about volatility scaling. All these gigantic multi-strategy businesses, absolute return strategies and others. It's all about volatility scaling. When implied volatility comes down, I have to increase my exposure to keep up…”
James Aitken notes Total is one of the largest global forestry businesses
“Total, gigantic European energy company, well run, good shape, now one of the world's largest forestry businesses.”
James Aitken predicts a multibillion-dollar ESG absolute return fund is imminent
“I find it interesting that so far we're not hearing about the multi multi-billion dollar global ESG absolute return Return fund yet, but I would think it's not far away.”
Aitken: Lower Chinese trend growth will curb global growth and inflation
“At the most basic level, it means we should all pencil in a much lower rate of Chinese trend growth, but that's obvious. So it means that the margin that China's not going to be exporting inflation, they're going to be sort of a curb, if you will, on global gr…”
The other half of the tape: James Aitken's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 21 times in 12 episodes on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Ted Seides 21
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
2025 1 mention in 1 episode
2020 20 mentions in 11 episodes 2 per episode
- Sustainable Investing 10: Hiro Mizuno – Changing the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.148)
- Sustainable Investing 9: Reuben Munger – Private Capital Perspective (Capital Allocators, EP.147)
- Sustainable Investing 8: Lauren Taylor Wolfe – Activist Perspective (Capital Allocators, EP.146)
- Sustainable Investing 7: Tony Davis – Hedge Fund Perspective at Inherent Group (Capital Allocators, EP.145)
- Sustainable Investing 6: Richard Lawrence - ESG Integration at Overlook (Capital Allocators, EP.144)
- Sustainable Investing 5: David Blood - Pioneering a Generation (Capital Allocators, EP.143)
- Sustainable Investing 4: Emanuel Citron – Sourcing Sustainable Managers (Capital Allocators, EP.142)
- Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
- 3 more episodes that year, every mention in 2020 →
Appearances (6)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440) | Apr 14, 2025 | 18m |
| James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326) | Jul 10, 2023 | 45m |
| James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239 | Mar 10, 2022 | 34m |
| James Aitken – Systemic Risk in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.126) | Mar 18, 2020 | 31m |
| James Aitken – Tour Around the World from a Small Island (Capital Allocators, EP.122) | Feb 10, 2020 | 53m |
| James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58) | Jun 25, 2018 | 1h 9m |