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James Aitken

Founder & Managing Partner, Aitken Advisors · 6 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

analystfounderaitkenadvisors.com ↗

James Aitken founded Aitken Advisors in 2009, operating a macroeconomic consultancy that advises institutional investors and sovereign pools of capital. He previously worked at AIG Financial Products and UBS, where he authored the widely followed market analysis memo Notes from a Small Island.

108statements → 61claims → 25claims resolved → 76%fully supported → 3.68/5average certainty → 2.63/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 21said about them ↓

19 supported 3 partly supported 3 contradicted 36 not checkable as stated how the 61 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

31 predictions · 30 assertions · 24 opinions · 22 insights · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 61 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 25 are resolved, and 36 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how James argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up
Aitken: Investors will absorb all US Treasury bond issuance through 2025
“Who's going to buy all these bonds that the United States is selling in 2023, 20 24, 2025 with a rising budget deficit before the recession comes? And my answer is everybody. Everybody. You give people the right incentive, the right coupon, they will buy it.”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 28:54 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Aitken: UK and EU Will Have Framework Trade Deal by Summer 2020
“I think there's a good chance that we have the bare bones of a deal, if you will, about the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. I think we have the bare bones of a deal by the summer.”
James Aitken Feb 10, 2020 ▶ 33:08 James Aitken – Tour Around the World from a Small Island (Capital Allocators, EP.122)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
50% certainty 2
67% certainty 3
86% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of James Aitken on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything James Aitken said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Not checkable as stated
AIG Veterans Warned That Collateral Shortages Could Sink the Firm
“When AIG was first downgraded, I think it was 2005. And I started to hear whispers from more seasoned, long-term employees of AIG Financial Products along the lines of, oh gosh, if we're downgraded another couple of notches, there's not enough collateral in th…”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 9:08 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Disclosure
James Aitken Declined a $1 Billion Sovereign Wealth Fund Offer
“I had one sovereign wealth fund say, oh, we'd like to give you a billion dollars to manage a long, short financial fund. And I said, well, that's great, but I can't do that.”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 17:01 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Insight
Top Performers in the Eurozone Crisis Avoided Being Sovereign Debt Heroes
“For all the smash up in the Eurozone, all the policy mistakes, the people that ended up doing the best were the people who didn't try to be sovereign debt heroes.”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 26:18 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Insight
Expert Status Breeds Dangerous Intellectual Complacency in Financial Systems
“It's dangerous when you're considered to be an expert on something, and I think it's still fair that people, to say that people know me as the plumbing guy, but it's dangerous if you come to be known as an expert because it means you might shut your mind off t…”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 30:46 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Insight
Constructive Paranoia Balances Downside Protection with Unpriced Upside Potential
“Constructive paranoia, when you're thinking about markets and asset allocation and investing, is as much about, oh my gosh, am I overexposed to something that might go wrong, As it is about, oh my gosh, am I underexposed to this particular opportunity that peo…”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 35:16 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Opinion
Japanese Banks Are Re-Rating Due to Upgraded Risk Management Capabilities
“I think it's quite cliched these days to say, you know, own Japanese banks, but I, I've liked them for a long time, and I like to stick with them, because I know how much they've invested in their risk management technology, I know how much they've upgraded th…”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 1:00:53 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Markets Are Completely Ignoring Central Bank Intentions to Reactivate Volatility
“Central banks, with the exception of the Bank of Japan, have been signaling for a year or more that they are trying to reactivate financial markets, and financial markets don't want to hear it.”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 1:05:59 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Opinion
India's Commodity Demand Cycle Matches China's Accelerated Growth in 2003
“What if India today is at the same point of its commodity demand cycle as China was in 2003? Now that could be big, and my suspicion is that that hunch could explain part of why global commodity markets and energy markets remain fairly well supported.”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 1:17:36 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Assertion Supported
Aitken: UK private wealth is piling into gilts for tax exemption
“UK private banks and high net worth individuals are falling over themselves to buy gilts. Yeah, quite shocking, right? Very simple reason. Gilts are the munis of sovereign debt. We all know about the tax attractiveness of muni bonds in the US, but gilts, there…”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 27:18 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Assertion Supported
European bank stocks historically drop 40% to 45% during European recessions
“In European recessions, and we've had a couple of them over the past decade or so, European financial stocks tend to drop anywhere between 40 and 45%, in some cases a lot more.”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 9:50 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Assertion Supported
Aitken: Banks can borrow €2T from the ECB at -75bps
“Eligible banks can borrow up to two trillion euros in total from the ECB at -75 basis points.”
James Aitken Mar 18, 2020 ▶ 17:24 James Aitken – Systemic Risk in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.126)
Assertion Supported
Aitken: Sam Zell and Tom Barrack Partnered to Buy Distressed Energy Assets
“In the second half of last year, Sam Zell and his friend Tom Barrack got together to build a portfolio of distressed energy assets.”
James Aitken Feb 10, 2020 ▶ 10:32 James Aitken – Tour Around the World from a Small Island (Capital Allocators, EP.122)

The other half of the tape: James Aitken's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 21 times in 12 episodes on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Ted Seides 21

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
001082015202020212022202320242025episodesmentions
0815202020212022202320242025episodes it came up in
0017.5215202020212022202320242025episodesmentions per episode
2025 1 mention in 1 episode
2020 20 mentions in 11 episodes 2 per episode

Appearances (6)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440) Apr 14, 2025 18m
James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326) Jul 10, 2023 45m
James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239 Mar 10, 2022 34m
James Aitken – Systemic Risk in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.126) Mar 18, 2020 31m
James Aitken – Tour Around the World from a Small Island (Capital Allocators, EP.122) Feb 10, 2020 53m
James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58) Jun 25, 2018 1h 9m
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