The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

3held up → 1didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →
75%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Marko Papic (5)Eric Mogelof (5)Josh Wolfe (4)Larry Siegel (3)Ben Forman (3)Yann Robard (2)Tom Steyer (2)Ted Seides (2)Regan Bozman (2)Rajiv Jain (2)Matt Miller (2)Matt Brown (2)
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The record (4) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Wolfe: WeWork will face severe downside operating leverage when economic conditions contract
“The operating leverage that those businesses, by the way, get on the upside is huge. But once you have this precipitous pruning and these people start disappearing, I think the operating leverage that you get on the downside is going to be really painful. And …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 58:29 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Prediction Held up
Wolfe: Venture Returns and LP Cash Distributions Will Slow or Turn Negative
“Eventually the great things that we've seen over the past few years, which are exceptional returns, not just unrealized, but realized and returned and distributed cash to LPs is going to either slow down or reverse and potentially be negative, which is somethi…”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 8:23 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Wolfe: Varda Will Launch First Space Manufacturing Mission in Late 2022
“Next year, this time, so it's gonna be a Q-three, Q-four, 20, 22, they will launch the first manufacturing thing in space, and that was wheeled into existence.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 51:23 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Prediction Held up
Wolfe predicts a massive pullback in institutional LP allocations to venture capital
“Private equity generally, of which venture capital is like, you know, the tiny bit that's generally clustered into that ass glass, I think is going to see a huge pullback in at least new allocations, if not the pace of allocations.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 48:26 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
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