Jun 17, 2024 · 1h 5m · capital-allocators
Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)
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Yann Robard, founder of Dawson Partners, discusses his journey from CPPIB to pioneering structured secondary liquidity solutions, detailing Dawson's cultural architecture and forecasting a one-trillion-dollar secondary market.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Ted holds 20.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Ted as informed peer 4.3 Guest teaching 3.4 Guest disagreement 1.1 Ted pushing back 0.8
speaking balance: gold is Ted, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 25:37 Rebutting the irrational valuation narrative
Yann directly rejects the widespread industry claim that private equity marks are irrational and inflated, citing empirical exit data to prove the opposite.
Hardest push from Ted ▶ 25:14 Challenging PE marks and return driversTed challenges Yann by articulating the major market critique that private equity firms artificially smooth valuations and benefit purely from falling interest rates.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 25:45 Data-driven breakdown of private equity exit premiumsYann educates the host with Dawson's proprietary study of over 1,000 realizations from 2005 to 2022, demonstrating that assets consistently exit at a 28% premium across vintages.
Ted holds their own ▶ 28:41 Analyzing entry pops versus exit popsTed demonstrates deep market knowledge by contrasting entry premiums on public-to-private transactions with exit pops, drilling into how genuine operational value is created in between.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Ted as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Ted pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Robard's Early Life, Quirky Beginnings, and Entrepreneurial Spirit | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Ted prompts Yann to recount his quirky background and early entrepreneurial experiences. Yann humorously details his transition from investment banking to running a Mexican furniture store, sharing personal anecdotes with zero friction. | |
| Building Businesses from Within at CPPIB | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | Ted asks insightful questions about the evolution of private market subsectors at CPPIB. Yann explains how he built four sequential business units internally and the importance of being half a step ahead of market timing. | |
| Arctic Clarity and the Founding of Dawson Partners | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Ted inquires about the personal inflection point leading to the creation of Dawson Partners. Yann shares how a 1,000-mile Arctic cycling journey gave him mental clarity to pioneer structured liquidity solutions. | |
| The Case for Private Equity Outperformance and Valuation Rationality | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | Ted pushes back on the conventional narrative of private equity by questioning valuation mark smoothing and multiples. Yann strongly rebuts with detailed empirical data from Dawson's research spanning over a thousand exits. | |
| Reimagining Secondary Liquidity with Structured Equity Solutions | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Ted probes into how secondary structured solutions sit between debt and outright secondary sales. Yann outlines the mathematical framework of Dawson's preferred equity model and why it provides a win-win structure. | |
| Sponsor: Ridgeline | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Following a sponsor break, Ted asks about scaling operations and firm culture. Yann articulates his philosophy that scale enables speed and certainty, detailing his 5-point performance review matrix balancing technical execution with cultural alignment. | |
| Dawson's Organizational Architecture and Investment Decision Process | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Ted asks how Dawson structures its operational pillars and investment committees. Yann walks through their six pillars and agile pipeline review system with full internal transparency. | |
| Structuring Win-Win Transactions and Projecting a Trillion-Dollar Market | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Ted asks about portfolio construction, GP stakes financing, and the future size of the secondary market. Yann builds a detailed quantitative forecast showing how secondaries will reach a trillion dollars annually by 2031. | |
| Capitalization Dynamics, Tech-Enabled Asset Management, and PE Drivers | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Ted explores technology implementation, AI utilization, and drivers of GP success before moving to closing reflections. Yann describes their automated data ingestion pipeline and reflects on self-awareness in leadership. |
Statements from this episode (13)
CPPIB assets grew from $7B to $285B between 2001 and 2015
“When I joined in 2001, there was 24 people. I left it with 1200. We went from seven billion to two hundred and eighty-five billion from 2001 to 2015.”
Successful financial market innovation requires evolutions rather than revolutions
“The interesting thing about these markets is that you need to be half a step ahead of the market, but you can't be a full step ahead of the market. It's really interesting. Markets need evolutions, not revolutions. So one of the things that I learned while I w…”
PE exits average a 28% valuation pop over prior carrying value
“What we did was we went back to 2005 to 20 22, and we looked at over a thousand companies, and we asked ourselves, when a private equity company exit, what does it exit at relative to what it was carried at two quarters prior? And the answer is, it pops 28%. S…”
PE multiples held steady at 13.5x to 14.5x EBITDA since 2021
“Public markets have gone from 13 and a half times to 21 and a half times LTM EBITDA. Private equity has stayed consistently between 13 and a half to 14 and a half times.”
PE IPO exits average a 42% pop versus 25% for M&A
“On exit, M&A on average is 25%, and IPOs are 42%, POPs, which would suggest that public markets pays more for assets on the exits than M&A does, corporates.”
The private capital secondary market represents just 1% of total private capital
“The secondary market has gone to one hundred and thirty five billion at its biggest year in 2021, and that represents one percent of private capital.”
Dawson takes 100% of cash flows until hitting a 1.3x multiple
“What we do is that we give 60, 70% of the value of the portfolio. We'll take a hundred percent of the cash flows from that portfolio until we get to, let's call it a minimum return of a multiple, one, three, one, four, or eight to 10%, and then we'll split cas…”
The private capital market will grow to $30 trillion by 2030
“If you think about a 15 trillion dollar private capital market that's going to grow to 30 trillion by 2030, our opportunity is to inject liquidity into that market.”
Few secondary market players can quickly write billion-dollar liquidity checks
“It's interesting in the secondary market, because as big as it's gotten, there's actually not that many players that can show up with a billion dollar check to provide liquidity to a counterparty, certainly in speed and scale.”
Dawson has completed $22B out of $670B in reviewed transactions
“We've seen six hundred and seventy billion dollars go through our shop. We've done twenty two billion of that.”
The private capital secondary market will reach $1 trillion by 2031
“I'm on the record for saying that the secondary market is going to get to a trillion dollars by 2031. Whenever I say that, the first reaction is, you're crazy. And I've heard that a few times, I guess, in my career. But I have a deep conviction around this pre…”