Apr 14, 2025 · 1h 6m · capital-allocators
Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
James Aitken · 18m spoken Louis-Vincent Gave · 17m spoken Marko Papic · 13m spoken Ted Seides · 9m spoken
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In this special macroeconomic roundtable, host Ted Seides convenes strategists James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic to analyze the conclusion of United States economic exceptionalism amidst rising geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs, and fiscal exhaustion. The panel explores the global shift toward a multipolar financial order, structural hazards in US private credit and debt markets, and actionable portfolio realignments across emerging markets and international sovereign assets.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Ted holds 17.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Ted as informed peer 3.4 Guest teaching 5.2 Guest disagreement 1.7 Ted pushing back 1.4
speaking balance: gold is Ted, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 8:23 Marko playfully criticizes panel consensus
Marko jokes that Ted did a poor job assembling the panel because all three macro strategists share an identical premise about US asset peaks.
Hardest push from Ted ▶ 49:42 Ted demands a counter-thesis to panel consensusTed actively refuses to let the guests stay within their comfortable consensus, pressing them to steelman the opposing view and identify what could prove them wrong.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 29:24 Louis debunks China currency devaluation narrativeLouis reframes conventional Western commentary by walking through hard trade surplus figures and explaining why currency depreciation would harm rather than help Chinese economic policy.
Ted holds their own ▶ 49:42 Ted interrogates consensus riskTed demonstrates sharp allocator expertise by pointing out that contrarian investors should be wary when all agreeing together, forcing the panel to analyze contrary risks.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Ted as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Ted pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Episode Overview: Macro Turmoil and Geopolitical Shifts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Ted provides a solo introductory monologue and framing for the episode. As a monologue segment, all scores are zeroed out according to the evaluation criteria. | |
| Roundtable Check-In: The End of US Exceptionalism | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | Ted prompts the guests for initial assessments of market conditions. Marko playfully jokes that Ted did a poor job assembling the panel because they all agree on the end of US exceptionalism, before launching into a detailed breakdown of fiscal policy drivers. | |
| Louis-Vincent Gave: China's Pivot and European Fiscal Easing | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Ted invites reaction to Marko's framework. Louis delivers an educational overview of China's shift from industrial self-reliance toward domestic consumption and Europe's sudden fiscal expansion. | |
| James Aitken: Tariffs, Capital Controls, and Economic Stops | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | James Aitken elaborates on how US policies effectively tell foreign capital to leave, outlining the risks of capital control sentiment and an immediate sudden stop in economic activity. | |
| Supply Chain Realities and Limits of Bilateral Deals | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Ted notes non-verbal cues and invites Louis to comment on supply chain fragility. Louis explains how domestic homebuilding depends heavily on Chinese components, drawing parallels to COVID disruptions. | |
| Multipolar Realities and Trading Policy Second Derivatives | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | James passes a question to Marko about historical analogues. Marko pushes back slightly against over-bearish tactical views, explaining that in policy-induced downturns, markets trade on the second derivative rather than trailing hard data. | |
| Global Reallocation: Fortress America, LatAm, and Chinese Debt | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Ted directs the panel to asset allocation implications across public and private markets. Louis outlines a high-conviction bullish thesis on Latin American debt and deeply discounted Chinese distressed assets. | |
| Renminbi Valuation Dynamics and Chinese Export Strength | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | James prompts Louis on currency dynamics, and Louis firmly debunks the consensus idea that China must devalue the renminbi given massive trade surpluses and competitive pricing. | |
| Ridgeline Sponsor Message: AI-Native Investment Technology | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Following an ad read, Ted brings the conversation back to the ten-year yield and Treasury dynamics. Marko explains the structural constraints faced by the White House when the bond market steepens. | |
| James Aitken: Balance Sheet Capacity and Capital Competition | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | James clarifies technical mechanics in the Treasury market, refuting popular rumors about the basis trade or Chinese selling, and framing the issue around balance sheet intermediation capacity. | |
| Marco Papic: Structural Hazards in US Private Markets | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Ted asks about long-term private market implications. Marko argues that US private markets are massively over-allocated and suffer from severe geographic concentration risk. | |
| Louis-Vincent Gave: Private Assets and Weak Dollar Shifts | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Louis points out unrealistic reporting in private assets relative to public markets, advising new managers to focus on weak-dollar plays like emerging market equities and commodities. | |
| James Aitken: Private Market Resilience and Default Premiums | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | James acknowledges short-term liquidity risks in private markets but defends large US private equity firms as sophisticated operators with robust balance sheets designed to weather cycle changes. | |
| Counter-Thesis: Scenarios for Continued US Outperformance | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | Ted directly challenges the guests' unanimous consensus on US underperformance by asking them to short their own thesis and outline scenarios where the US continues to lead. | |
| Louis-Vincent Gave: Tech Breakthroughs vs International Shocks | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Louis answers Ted's challenge by discussing what would be required for the US to outperform: a major technological breakthrough or a self-inflicted economic crisis in Europe or China. | |
| Roundtable Predictions: Identifying Market Winners and Losers | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Ted wraps up the session with rapid-fire questions on market winners and losers as well as critical unknowns. Louis closes with an alarming warning about hidden leverage in retail structured products. |
Statements from this episode (45)
Aitken: US administration is directly signaling global capital to leave
“We now have an administration sending a very direct message over and over again to global capital. And I paraphrase, please go away.”
Gave: Non-US growth will outperform US growth as the dollar weakens
“I think we're living through the end of the year of US exceptionalism. After a 15 year standing run, the US dollar is now rolled over. I think most people's portfolio is on position for a world of weaker dollar, and one where growth outside of the US is going …”
Papic: US assets would have peaked under Harris over four years instead
“I would argue that if Vice President Harris had won the election, we would be in the same boat in terms of the peak in U.S. Assets. We just wouldn't have as extraordinary of a sell-off. So what would have happened under Trump in 12 months would have probably h…”
Papic: Fed cut rates 100 bps while yields surged 100 bps
“And we saw a hundred basis point cut in the Fed funds rate, and a hundred basis point moving the yields higher, which hadn't happened since the eighties.”
Papic: US asset outperformance driven by post-2020 fiscal spending is over
“It's the fiscal gravy train that gave us exceptionalism of the U.S. Asset flows from 20 20 to 20 25. That's over.”
Gave: Odds of the US building an anti-China coalition are probably very low
“The odds of that succeeding are probably very low, and the Chinese are trying to be much more relaxed about it.”
Gave: China and Europe expand fiscal stimulus as US consolidates
“Now the U.S. Is doing fiscal consolidation just as China and Europe step on the fiscal accelerator.”
Aitken: Expect two horrible quarters of global growth, crushing US equities
“The reality is that we're going to have two quarters of global growth that are going to be absolutely horrible. And in that context, the market clearing price of earnings, and therefore the market clearing price of equities in general, in the US in particular,…”
Aitken: Trade deals are too late to stop capex and consumer fallout
“Even if this weekend we get big, beautiful tariff trade negotiations with Japan and South Korea and maybe some others, it's too late. To arrest the jolt to confidence, the jolt to capex, the jolt to business spending, the jolt that will soon start to impact co…”
Gave: Japan and South Korea will accept any US trade deal
“If you're Japan or Korea, you're dependent on the U.S. Security umbrella, you've got U.S. Troops in your territory, you're always going to do whatever deal the U.S. Puts in front of you.”
Gave: US supply disruptions from tariffs will be as bad as COVID-19
“We saw this kind of discrepancy during COVID, and it took the economies a year to get back on their footing. This time, it's going to be just as bad. I don't see how the economy doesn't grind to a standstill. These strict discrepancies are going to be very uni…”
Papic: Policy second derivatives matter more than data in policy-induced recessions
“In policy-induced recessions, what really matters is the second derivative in policy, not data.”
Papic: Trump will likely moderate tariffs to 5-10% rather than 40%
“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”
Gave: US-China negotiations will result in China leaving the Americas and US leaving Asia
“This, I think, will end up being the negotiations with China. China, you get out of the Americas, and we'll get out of Asia. That is a trade that Xi Jinping will be very happy to make.”
Gave: Investors should aggressively buy undervalued Latin American assets
“That leaves me, actually, super bullish to Latin America. It was very interesting that in these tariffs, Latin America was completely spared. Not only did they get a blanket 10%, but pretty much everything they export, whether copper, silver, lithium, et ceter…”
Gave: Chinese distressed debt at 10 cents on the dollar offers amazing risk-reward
“The one that stands out the most to me is Chinese distressed debt. Chinese distressed debt was trading at 50, 60 cents on the dollar. When Russia invaded Ukraine, everybody decided China's uninvestable. Everybody redeemed. There was no markets. This stuff is s…”
Gave: China is running a $1.1 trillion trade surplus
“Look, China's running a trade surplus of 1.1 trillion US dollars.”
Gave: China does not need a currency devaluation
“China doesn't need a devaluation. China's problem is first and foremost that consumer and business confidence has been crushed.”
Gave: Devaluing the renminbi within six months would be a big mistake
“James, I think here we're at a super interesting crossroad where if in the next six months China does devalue the renminbi, it would have been a big policy mistake.”
Aitken: Institutional Clients Are Hedging Dollars, Not Dumping US Assets
“Are the clients I work with blanket selling US assets? They are not. For the past month and a half, the tactical ones have been increasing their dollar hedge ratios versus various currencies, which is the first step.”
Papic: US Households Gained $10 Trillion in Real Estate Over Five Years
“Households have made 10 trillion dollars in real estate over the last five years, and if you get yields down, not only would they start buying homes again, but they might dip into that home equity through HELOCs.”
Papic: US Will Struggle to Bring 10-Year Yield Substantially Below 4%
“They're gonna struggle to bring the tenure substantively below four percent. I think three and a half is the best they could hope for, and that's just not enough, really, to restart some sort of re-leveraging of the private sector because American households d…”
Papic: Congress Will Not Revoke Trump's Tariff Authority
“You've got the House and the Senate talking about taking away tariff rights from President Trump. It's not going to happen, but they're talking.”
Aitken: Treasury basis trade did not cause the bond reversal
“It is not the treasury basis trade unwinding. The treasury basis trade this week has been fine. The treasury basis trade does not explain what happened.”
Aitken: Rumors of China dumping US Treasuries are incorrect
“Nor, as Louis would attest, does the convenient but incorrect rumor that, oh, China must be bashing treasuries. Just ignore that.”
Aitken: Private sector lacks balance sheet capacity to intermediate Treasuries
“There is not enough private sector balance sheet capacity to intermediate this enormous stock of treasuries. It's a capacity problem.”
Aitken: Leverage ratio deregulation will dramatically improve Treasury market functioning
“When Scott eventually gets to deregulation and freeing up some of the constraints in the leverage ratio, it should serve to dramatically improve the functioning of the treasury market, and that would be a good thing.”
Papic: The U.S. Is Starting to Trade Like an Emerging Market
“What's happening right now in the U.S., and I don't want to be too facetious or critical, but the U.S. Is starting to trade in many ways like an emerging market.”
Papic: U.S. Private Market Assets Are More Overbid Than Publics
“And obviously, if you want to talk about where U.S. Assets are massively overbid, I think privates are even worse than public.”
Papic: Only Two Emerging Market Macro Hedge Funds Exist Today
“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”
Gave: Private Equity and Credit Report 50% Gains Amid Flat Broader Markets
“Over that same three-year period, against loans and equity markets that are flat to down, the private equity and the private credit managers are nominally up 50%.”
Gave: Pension Funds and Endowments Will Relentlessly Rebalance Away From Privates
“They've outperformed so much that the rebalancing that you're going to see in every pension fund, in every endowment, away from these strategies back towards listed equities or back towards, frankly, just bonds, it should be relentless.”
Gave: Emerging Markets and Listed Equities Are the 10-Year Trade as Capital Flows In
“Today, if you're a young aspiring money manager, you should be launching an equity fund, you should be launching an EM fund, and even if you're doing it with very little money, that's the trade for the next 10 years. That's where the capital is going to go, be…”
Aitken: Private market funds will face redemption pressures and stock declines
“During this transition, however long it is, we'd be more surprised if we didn't start to read more stories about private something being under pressure. More stories about people who didn't read the prospectus and tried to get the money out and they couldn't a…”
Papic: Trump will reach China deal, but US assets won't outperform
“I think if he gets a deal with China, which I think he will, I don't think that's good for US assets relative to the rest of the world.”
Papic: US stock market probably bottomed at 4800
“That's why I think we probably reached the bottom at 4800.”
Gave: Chinese competition will eliminate profitability across the AI sector
“We also know that when China enters the room, profits walk out, so there's not going to be any profit in AI forever.”
Gave: Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will not flare up soon
“Europe has this Damocles sword over its head with the Euro, which pops up every three, four, five years. I don't think it pops up over the next couple years”
Papic: Europe Will See a Tsunami of LNG Supply Disproving Deindustrialization
“Europe is going to be absolutely drowned in its tsunami wave of LNG supply that will crash on its shores over the next two years. This whole deindustrialization debate is wrong.”
Papic: Q1 2025 Asset Performance Trends Will Continue for Five Years
“If you just look at asset performance in January, February, and March, that is the truth. If you're a long-term capital allocator, go back, look at the performance January, February, March. That's the truth. You see who the winners and losers are, and that I t…”
Gave: Companies Geared to US Consumption Will Struggle
“Anybody geared to U.S. Consumption, I think, is going to be struggling.”
Gave: Foreign Appetite for US Corporate Debt Rollovers Will Be Limited
“The second half of this year and the first half of next year, the rollovers are gargantuan. At its time, when the appetite of foreigners for US dollar assets It's going to be very, very limited. Selling bonds in a weakening currency is very hard. Spreads are a…”
Gave: Canadian and European Pensions Will Face Pressure to Repatriate Capital
“You're also going to get political pressure on all the Canadian pension funds that are massive to repatriate capital and to bring back money from the U.S. You're going to get the same pressure on European pension funds.”
Papic: Markets React to Rate of Change in Geopolitical Risk, Not Absolute Levels
“One of the things that I think is very important as investors start to incorporate politics and geopolitics more and more into their toolbox is just to understand that while you as a human being really cares about absolute levels of risk, the market is not hum…”
Gave: Structured Products in Private Banks Create Catastrophic Hidden Downside Leverage
“My fear is that over the past 10 years, private banks all around the world, private banks in Europe, in Asia, in America, Have made a lot of money selling structured products to private clients that essentially the clients where it's selling vault. They sold p…”