Phil Tetlock

“You actually only need three. You need three because you need two to disagree and one to referee.”

“What they found was the training did improve people's accuracy of their forecasts, and it turned out they found the thing that was most important in that training was basically this, is this idea of teaching them about base rates, and reference classes, and ju…”

“I just feel like if you have really strong opinions on too many things, the chances of you being able to rationally update your thinking on things is probably pretty low.”

“And so what we know, and this has been extraordinarily well documented by folks like Phil Tetlock, psychologist, University of Pennsylvania, and others is that in quotation marks, expert forecasts, they tend not to be very good at it. In fact, typically simple…”