James Aitken

13 statements across 5 episodes · 1 bullish · 7 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Jun 25, 2018 by James Aitken · said 21 times in 12 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: James Aitken's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

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brought up most by Ted Seides (21)

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Everything said about James Aitken, oldest first

Jun 25, 2018
Disclosure
James Aitken Declined a $1 Billion Sovereign Wealth Fund Offer
“I had one sovereign wealth fund say, oh, we'd like to give you a billion dollars to manage a long, short financial fund. And I said, well, that's great, but I can't do that.”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 17:01 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Jun 25, 2018 bearish
Opinion
Assuming Long-Term Rates Can Only Fall Is Global Markets' Biggest Risk
“I think the number one risk is the assumption that long-term interest rates can only go down. That's the number one risk. That underpins, I think, Nearly every major asset allocation around the world. The assumption that we are perpetually mired in some sort o…”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 1:08:04 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Jun 25, 2018 negative
Insight
Expert Status Breeds Dangerous Intellectual Complacency in Financial Systems
“It's dangerous when you're considered to be an expert on something, and I think it's still fair that people, to say that people know me as the plumbing guy, but it's dangerous if you come to be known as an expert because it means you might shut your mind off t…”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 30:46 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Mar 18, 2020 bearish
Insight
Aitken: Low Rates and Regulation Drove Unconstrained Shadow Banking Leverage
“The cool eye of financial history might conclude that by driving interest rates to ridiculously low levels, while simultaneously driving financial intermediation out of prudentially regulated banks, We or policymakers perhaps effectively uncapped leverage in t…”
James Aitken Mar 18, 2020 ▶ 6:33 James Aitken – Systemic Risk in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.126)
Mar 10, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Geopolitics has overtaken inflation as the primary market driver
“I'm starting to think that as important as that inflation conversation has been, I'm not sure that matters anymore, or at least not to the extent we thought it might three weeks ago, because this is now exclusively about geopolitics.”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 6:17 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Mar 10, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Rate volatility provides a strong headwind for hyper-growth stocks and credit
“And obviously, most of all, that would probably continue to be a very strong headwind for what remain hideously overpriced long duration hyper growth stocks. I mean, obviously, but it's also a bit of a headwind for credit.”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 25:58 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Mar 10, 2022 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Minimax regret over Ukraine is broadly impacting asset prices
“It seems a growing number of investors realize the seriousness of the situation we face today, and the desire of minimizing their maximum regret over getting this Ukraine situation wrong. And that is starting to impact asset prices far beyond energy and commod…”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 7:48 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Mar 10, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Average inflation will exceed pre-2020 decade levels for several years
“That over the next several years, average inflation would turn out to be higher than in at least the 10 years prior to say, twenty-twenty. That would be my best guess.”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 24:46 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Jul 10, 2023
Insight
Aitken: Systematic funds automatically add risk as volatility falls
“There is so much money in these quantum metal strategies that it's as simple as if implied volatility is coming down for any reason. Then these strategies need to add more risk, and that is exactly what's happening”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 42:12 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Jul 10, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aitken: Systematic inflows into liquid stocks will unwind violently
“There's more and more money coming in as volatility comes down into the most liquid stocks. But then at some point, that's all going to turn around. We don't know when. But boy, oh boy, that's going to be a lively couple of days when that happens.”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 43:06 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Jul 10, 2023
Assertion Supported
Aitken: Fundamental investors account for only 5-10% of listed turnover
“And yet the facts are that if you and I, Ted, decide we're going to buy some listed asset today, well, we're going to be five to 10% of the turnover. Because the way the world works today is that the flow is dominated by the machines, and that's not a criticis…”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 41:17 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Apr 14, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aitken: Private market funds will face redemption pressures and stock declines
“During this transition, however long it is, we'd be more surprised if we didn't start to read more stories about private something being under pressure. More stories about people who didn't read the prospectus and tried to get the money out and they couldn't a…”
James Aitken Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 48:34 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Apr 14, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Aitken: Institutional Clients Are Hedging Dollars, Not Dumping US Assets
“Are the clients I work with blanket selling US assets? They are not. For the past month and a half, the tactical ones have been increasing their dollar hedge ratios versus various currencies, which is the first step.”
James Aitken Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 31:45 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
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