why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Sanchez: US Unemployment Is Racing Toward 10% or 20%
“I think America is racing towards a 10% unemployment rate, maybe 20.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Balaji Srinivasan predicts 70% chance of economic crisis within two years
“His point here was, I'm concerned about the chance of a crisis, and so Balaji thinks there's a 10% chance of a crisis happening soon, a 70% chance in the next two years, which is scary because he's very smart.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Business ownership is a critical lifeboat against AI automation
“I think we are in an asset ownership race with AI right now in a way that we don't even realize. Buying businesses and owning parts of businesses will be like getting on the last lifeboat out of the Titanic. You will either be the person who owns the farm or y…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Sanchez: AI will create billion-dollar one-person companies within five years
“I think people will become billionaires this year, next year, the next five years as one person companies from AI. I think there will be billion dollar one person companies created from AI, from what I have seen firsthand.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Sanchez: Future Billion-Dollar Companies Will Be Run by One Person and AI
“I think in the future there will be billion dollar companies made with one person and an army of AI agents underneath it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Workers who fail to integrate AI will exit the workforce
“Those who use AI and are able to integrate it will be able to continue in the workforce on a go-forward basis. For my company and for others. And those who don't, won't.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Computers will be entirely re-engineered and look completely different
“I think they'll re-engineer the computer entirely. Like it won't even look like this.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: The next generation of billionaires will emerge from boring businesses
“Because I think the next generation of billionaires will be built in the boring.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: AI Will Eliminate Cubicle Workers Because They 'Don't Actually Work'
“AI will take the office cubicle jobs first because most people in cubicles, well, they don't actually work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Finding small business buyers will become harder in the future
“It's hard to find a buyer for right now, but it's going to be even harder to find a buyer for later.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: AI users will become 'superhumans' who are smarter and wealthier.
“I think right now we're at a tentpole moment with AI where people who use AI to become better will become superhumans. They'll just be smarter, richer, and better than most of us.”
Prediction Held up
Sanchez: $5T–$10T in Businesses Will Transfer from Baby Boomers
“The numbers are between somewhere between five and 10 trillion dollars worth of businesses are going to be transferred from baby boomer generation to our generation.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Severe economic turmoil and market distress are imminent
“Because I do think that we should buy when there's blood in the streets, and there is about to be.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Tech laggards like Intel will die faster amid market downturns
“Unfortunately, I think we're gonna see that all over the world as we continue to see the stock market get hammered, and companies like Intel that aren't keeping up, they're gonna die a lot faster.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk could become trillion-dollar stocks
“And I realized that they might actually create the first trillion-dollar drug stocks. So the two companies, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, could be trillion-dollar drug stocks.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Society Will Soon Recognize a Silent Loneliness Epidemic Among Women
“Right now, we're starting to hear about, like, the alpha men, and we're starting to hear about testosterone levels lowering, and we're starting to hear about incels and men not having sex in increasing amounts, and we're starting to hear about Men having a tou…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: AI will remove human monotony beyond what society is prepared for
“It will remove human, like, monotony in a way that I don't think we're ever prepared. We're not prepared for it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: AI Era Winners Will Be Those Comfortable Being Alone
“In a world of AI where we can make our little phone our constant companion, the winners will be those who learn to be by themselves.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez predicts her Main Street Holding Company will reach $1B
“Like Main Street Holding Company, I think we'll get to a billion dollars.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: AI Duplication Will Make Creator Relevancy Increasingly Difficult
“We're going to have AI John's all over the place. We're going to have AI Cody's. We're going to have content ripped off, duplicated, and increasingly I think relevancy is going to be hard.”
Prediction Held up
Sanchez: YouTube TV estimated to surpass all ad live TV platforms by 2026
“They're estimated to surpass every other ad live TV platform by 2026.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Proof of work will replace verbal interviews in future hiring
“You're going to have proof of work, and that proof of work will be the thing that drives people forward on a go forward basis. So if you want to get a job, you won't be able to explain your way in an interview and say, this is why you should hire me. You're go…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Johnson will build a giant health empire like Goop
“So I bet he built something giant. It kind of reminds me, I texted him, I was like, you know, you should look at what Gwyneth Paltrow did with Goop, because it was similar.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: A seven-day time audit reveals 10 hours of replaceable work
“I can almost guarantee That in seven days, you'll find 10 hours of easily replaceable work on your calendar every week, and in a day, you'll probably find one to two.”