The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 346 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sanchez: US Unemployment Is Racing Toward 10% or 20%
“I think America is racing towards a 10% unemployment rate, maybe 20.”
Sanchez: Balaji Srinivasan predicts 70% chance of economic crisis within two years
“His point here was, I'm concerned about the chance of a crisis, and so Balaji thinks there's a 10% chance of a crisis happening soon, a 70% chance in the next two years, which is scary because he's very smart.”
Sanchez: Remote human assistants deliver higher ROI than AI for her company
“I just told my team today that we found that hiring a remote assistant has a better ROI for my company than using AI.”
Sanchez: Peter Thiel rejected Replit, saying it would never be big
“I remember when I told Peter Thiel that he should invest in the company and Peter said, it's never going to be a big company. This vibe coding thing is sort of ridiculous. And he put it in an email”
Sanchez: Confident wrong speakers are rated more credible than hesitant correct speakers
“But a really scary study, they did a follow-on study that showed people who argued more confidently but were wrong were rated even more credible than those who argued not confidently but were right.”
Sanchez: Bill Gurley backed WeWork because Adam Neumann was a showman
“He said when he first met him in a series A, so the company basically had nothing in existence. His company benchmark had never done a real estate transaction. That's what this guy was asking him to do. But he goes, within the first few minutes, I knew I was g…”
Sanchez: Business ownership is a critical lifeboat against AI automation
“I think we are in an asset ownership race with AI right now in a way that we don't even realize. Buying businesses and owning parts of businesses will be like getting on the last lifeboat out of the Titanic. You will either be the person who owns the farm or y…”
Sanchez: Passive income represents under 1% of US earned income
“According to the Federal Reserve survey, only 11% of Americans earn any passive income at all. And of those, 75% comes from real estate requiring some management. So truly passive monthly income represents less than one percent of all income earned in the U.S.”
Sanchez: 95% of Shopify Stores Never Make a Single Sale
“Shopify says, 95% of stores, they never make a single sale.”
Sanchez: 90% of Amazon FBA Businesses Fail or Make Under $100/Month
“Amazon fulfilled by Amazon, so Amazon FBA. 90% fail rate. Or they plateau at, let me tell you how much, a hundred bucks a month in profit.”
Sanchez: EQ increases salary 20-30% while IQ has zero correlation to wealth
“I was reading a study the other day about how there's something like a, like, 20 to 30% increase in salary just from thinking about increasing your EQ and really ignoring IQ, that IQ almost has no correlation between monetary success.”
Sanchez: Business Leaders Who Cry Do Not Remain Leaders for Long
“Every single leader that I have seen cry in business is not a leader for very long.”
Sanchez: Sequoia Capital only allows non-profits to invest in its funds
“And I know this because my friends at Sequoia who are big, huge investors, they only allow nonprofits to invest now. They like will not take actively many people's money.”
Sanchez: Intelligence has zero correlation with how much money people make
“Once you realize that, your life will totally change because intelligence really has no correlation with how much money you can make.”
Sanchez: AI will create billion-dollar one-person companies within five years
“I think people will become billionaires this year, next year, the next five years as one person companies from AI. I think there will be billion dollar one person companies created from AI, from what I have seen firsthand.”
Sanchez: Future Billion-Dollar Companies Will Be Run by One Person and AI
“I think in the future there will be billion dollar companies made with one person and an army of AI agents underneath it.”
Sanchez: Hotels Have an Average Profit Margin of Negative 15 Percent
“Do you guys know they are negative margin? Which means if I give you a hundred bucks in a hotel you actually don't give me anything back. You cost me another 15 bucks. They have a -15% margin on average.”
Sanchez: Workers who fail to integrate AI will exit the workforce
“Those who use AI and are able to integrate it will be able to continue in the workforce on a go-forward basis. For my company and for others. And those who don't, won't.”
Sanchez: Research shows high IQ does not lead to higher income
“There is little to no research that high IQ leads to higher income. Now there is research that shows really low IQ or very Like lower mid IQ and below does materially show that you're going to make less money. Lots of research showing that, but there's not a l…”
Sanchez: China Uses Yuan for Most Cross-Border Transactions
“China has started to use its own currency for most cross-border transactions.”
Sanchez: Ozempic costs under $5 to make but sells for $1,000 monthly
“Well, Yale says that Ozempic costs less than five dollars a month to manufacture, And yet we're getting charged a thousand dollars a month for this drug. While the exact same product can be bought in Canada for a 155 dollars a month and 59 dollars a month in G…”
Sanchez: Major Democratic donors threatened to withhold 30 million unless Biden withdrew
“A bunch of the big Democratic donors are saying, I will keep my thirty million dollars I was going to donate to the Biden campaign unless they step down.”
Sanchez: Skilled trade grads earn up to $100K, out-earning marketing grads
“The average marketing major makes somewhere between 60 to 80,000 dollars a year. The average skilled trades worker after they graduate can make up where of 75 to a 100,000 dollars a year.”
Sanchez: Sitting within 25 feet of an underperformer reduces performance 30%
“If you sit next to an underperformer, if an underperformer is sat within a 25 foot radius of a bunch of normal people like you and me, they take your performance down by 30%.”
Sanchez: UFC shares only 13% of revenue compared to NBA's 50%
“NBA all the way to MLB are somewhere between 51 and 45%.
UFC is 13 to 14%.”
Sanchez: Divorce rates double for female lottery winners, but not men
“When men win the lottery, it's kind of, nothing really changes. They get married at the same rate. They have kids at the same rate. When women win the lottery, the divorce rates double.”
Sanchez: 70% to 80% of Listed Businesses Never Sell
“70 to 80% of businesses will never actually sell that are even listed for sale. Seven to eight out of every 10 owners who walk into the market to sell something walk home with nothing.”
Sanchez: Owner Dependency Is the Number One Reason Businesses Don't Sell
“And when we look at the autopsy of these dead businesses, the number one reason, owner dependency.”
Sanchez: Vividly fantasizing about success degrades actual performance
“The more vividly you fantasize about success, the worse you perform.”
Sanchez: NYU Study Shows Positive Fantasizing Reduces Job Offers and Earnings
“So there's this study we found in by NYU psychologists tracking college graduates entering the job market. And they basically found that the students who spent the most time in quote unquote, I love this line, positive fantasies about landing their dream job s…”
Sanchez: There is zero correlation between having ADHD and becoming a millionaire
“Also, there is zero correlation. Between having ADHD and being a millionaire, like zero.”
Sanchez: UPenn study found positive fantasizing reduced weight loss by 24 pounds
“At University of Penn, they found the same pattern in weight loss, actually. Like the women who fantasized most positively about their future selves, they lost 24 pounds less in one year than the women who pictured the process going badly.”
Sanchez: Jensen Huang Has 60 Direct Reports at Nvidia
“He has 60 direct reports, six zero. Most CEOs have eight to 10.”
Sanchez: Nvidia Has 2% Turnover and 5x Longer Employee Retention
“Now it sounds brutal, but NVIDIA's employees stay five X longer than industry average. Turnover is two percent.”
Sanchez: Computers will be entirely re-engineered and look completely different
“I think they'll re-engineer the computer entirely. Like it won't even look like this.”
Sanchez: Three Austin groups made $10B to $50B on SpaceX
“So I mean, just here in Austin, we have like three groups that have made 10 to fifty billion dollars on that.”
Sanchez: The youngest female self-made billionaire came from prediction markets
“I was really upset when I saw the first, like, female young, or the youngest female self-billionaire was from Prediction Markets.”
Sanchez: Portfolio companies double or triple yearly using a standard finance playbook
“Across my private equity companies now, hundreds of companies and we follow it and it works. And that's why, you know, our companies double or triple every year.”
Sanchez: VC fund has sub-10% default rate and several 100x exits
“I think we've had less than a 10% default rate and we've had a couple hundred Xs, but we've had a lot of four to five to seven Xs.”
Sanchez: Passive information consumption depletes dopamine needed for execution
“Neuroscience shows you're burning the exact dopamine your brain needs for execution. It can't tell the difference.”
Sanchez: Replit turned down a $1B valuation when pre-revenue
“He had turned down a billion dollars for Replit back when they had no cap, you know, they hadn't even made any revenue yet, because he had been grinding for 11 years before they made really much of anything”
Sanchez: The next generation of billionaires will emerge from boring businesses
“Because I think the next generation of billionaires will be built in the boring.”
Sanchez: Harvard study shows optimistic women live 11% to 20% longer
“And over this 30 year period, the women who were labeled as more optimistic, not pessimistic, they lived like 11 to 20% longer than the negative communicating women.”
Sanchez: Negative YouTube titles and thumbnails generate 23% higher CTR
“In YouTube, we know that if you have a negative versus a positive thumbnail and title, you have a 23% higher click-through rate.”
Sanchez: AI Will Eliminate Cubicle Workers Because They 'Don't Actually Work'
“AI will take the office cubicle jobs first because most people in cubicles, well, they don't actually work.”
Codie Sanchez: Homebuying cost rose from 4 years of salary to 12
“Back when boomers were buying houses, it was four years of salary on average. You know what it is today? 12. 12 years.”
Sanchez: US spent $8T on Middle East wars, 100x roads budget
“If you were to look, go to Grok on Twitter, that's Twitter's AI, and you were to ask it how much money we have spent in the Middle East On wars. The answer would be eight trillion dollars. That's a hundred X the annual federal spending on roads and bridges.”