why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Masad: Meta's core social networks are dying assets facing AI disruption
“Meta has this asset that's spitting out a ton of cash. Which is Instagram, Facebook, their ads, kind of networks. But it's in a way a dying asset in many ways. It's a very competitive at some point it's going to get fully disrupted. AI is going in. It's alread…”
Assertion Partly supported
Masad: Peter Thiel left Meta board over disagreements on VR and AI
“And at the time, he actually had just left the Meta's board, and the reason he left is he disagreed with how Meta's trying to invest in all these immersion technologies, like VR and AI, and Zuck is trying to find his next act.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Masad: Meta's top AI hires earn more than company executives
“Those guys that are getting that Meta's buying for hundreds of millions of dollars are getting paid more than the executives, more than the entire command chain together.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mann: $10 in Facebook Ads Is Enough to Test Video Titles
“And you only need about 10 dollars or so to get accurate information on the test.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Amazon employee jumped from $300K to $750K by matching Meta offer
“He went from making about 300,000 and making about three quarters of a million in one jump.”
Insight
Godin: Zuckerberg uses likes and comments to extract free labor
“Because Mark Zuckerberg wants you to have a feedback loop of likes, and what people are saying about you in the comments, because if he can get you hooked on that, you will work for free, and his advertisers will have something to buy.”
Assertion Supported
Zimmer: Big tech ad revenue completely dwarfs legacy Hollywood studio profits
“When you look at ad revenue from YouTube or Meta or Google or Amazon, you know, which is anywhere from, you know, forty billion to two hundred and ninety five billion, as compared to ad revenue for
You know, Warners or Comcast or whatever, which is like eight …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Galloway: Missing the top seven tech stocks leaves investor returns flat
“If you don't own one of those seven stocks, you've underperformed the market and your returns are probably flat.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Gary Vee predicts Meta, Google, and X will enter live shopping
“I expect Meta, Google, Twitter, everybody to get into this game. Live social shopping is the underpriced attention.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nagpal: College Facebook apps reached 4–5M daily users, beating Yelp and LinkedIn
“Like at our peak, we had more traffic than LinkedIn, Yelp, about the same as New York Times. We had like, I think like four or five million teenagers basically using it every single day.”
Insight
Sanchez: Long-running Facebook ads reliably indicate working marketing campaigns
“If the ads have been running for a long period of time, you know that the ad has been working. So if you look at the brand new ads, I don't know, maybe they work, maybe they don't, but if they've been running for a few months, okay, this ad is working.”
Assertion Supported
Gary Vee's first three angel investments were Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr
“Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr were my first three investments of my life.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nagpal: Facebook apps scaled to $50,000 daily, making $1M before age 21
“It started my freshman summer, and at the end of my freshman summer, I was making, like, 20 dollars a day, but all the way scaled to 50 grand a day, and making a million bucks before I was 21.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altucher: Cold-emailing daily idea lists led to speaking gigs at Google, Facebook, and Airbnb
“And I've been doing this now, writing 10 ideas a day for over 20 years. I've, because I send many of them out, I've been invited to speak at Google, Facebook, LinkedIn, I spoke at Airbnb's main conference. I've been out to Quora and met, met all of them, and j…”