why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Sanchez: 90% of Amazon FBA Businesses Fail or Make Under $100/Month
“Amazon fulfilled by Amazon, so Amazon FBA. 90% fail rate. Or they plateau at, let me tell you how much, a hundred bucks a month in profit.”
Assertion Supported
Galloway: Amazon increased third-party seller take rate from 20% to 45%
“Amazon, 20 years ago, if you were a third-party marketer or a third-party reseller selling your products on Amazon, they took about 20%. Of your gross dollar volume, now they take 45, because they kind of own the market.”
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Bezos banned PowerPoint because nested slides buried the Challenger launch risk
“Jeff hated PowerPoint and the famous story why it it's old now, but when the space shuttle Challenger exploded, They went and found the PowerPoint slide had been used to justify the launch. And this PowerPoint had like seven levels of nested bullets and the ti…”
Assertion Supported
Galloway: Amazon's third-party seller take rate rose from 20% to 45%
“Amazon, 20 years ago, if you were a third-party marketer or a third-party reseller selling your products on Amazon, they took about 20%. Of your gross dollar volume, now they take 45, because they kind of own the market.”
Assertion Contradicted
Chinese Sellers Outnumber US Sellers on Amazon Three to One
“Chinese sellers outnumber US sellers. By almost three X on Amazon.”
Assertion Supported
Zimmer: Big tech ad revenue completely dwarfs legacy Hollywood studio profits
“When you look at ad revenue from YouTube or Meta or Google or Amazon, you know, which is anywhere from, you know, forty billion to two hundred and ninety five billion, as compared to ad revenue for
You know, Warners or Comcast or whatever, which is like eight …”
Assertion Partly supported
Sanchez: 40% of VC dollars go straight to big tech ad platforms
“So, 40 cents of every dollar of venture capital funding goes to where? Does anybody know? It goes to the big four. That's ads, right? It goes to Google. It goes to Amazon. All of the venture dollars go to getting distribution.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bezos copied Sam Walton's rule to never leave meetings without decisions
“Sam Walton, CEO and founder of Walmart, said this line that then Jeff Bezos stole exactly. He said, we get into some of the doggondest knockdown drag outs you've ever seen, talking about his management meetings, but we have a rule. We never leave an item hangi…”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: Bezos pitched Amazon seed investors with a 70% failure estimate
“When Jeff Bezos raised Amazon's first million bucks in ninety-five-ish, he took 60 meetings, he got 40 rejections, and he told every investor the same thing. He figured there was a 70% chance they would lose their entire investment.”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: Amazon shut down Amazon Local Register within a year against Square
“After seeing all the success that Square had, Amazon, big baby Amazon, they launched a competitive product called like Amazon Local Register.
It's a mobile credit card reader for small businesses, and it had lower fees.
So it was way cheaper.
It's backed by a …”
Assertion Supported
Rove: Amazon's advertising budget exceeds a billion-dollar presidential campaign spend
“I mean, the advertising budget for Amazon is bigger.”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: Main Street Millionaire peaked at #91 on Amazon
“Book is out. Top spotted hit was 91 on Amazon, which was first author in the family.”