The Ledger
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Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
Vogt: Cruise will sustain 10X annual fleet growth for the foreseeable future
“Next year it'll be thousands. And then it'll kind of continue. At least 10 X growth every year for their foreseeable future.”
Vogt: Human-driven ridesharing will be remembered as a flawed social experiment
“I think we will look back at, you know, right now is kind of like a flawed social experiment, you know, gone wrong with human driven ride share.”
Vogt: Data volume is not the primary bottleneck in building autonomous vehicles
“Well, look, if data was the only constraint to making a driverless car, I think there would be a lot more driverless cars out there than there are. It's a lot more than data. Like cruise is not data starved, even with, you know, hundreds of vehicles on the roa…”
Vogt: Driver assistance and robotaxis share no parallel and cannot be compared
“But again, like there's no parallel. They're not the same thing, like a system that's driver assistance where you have to take control. Versus one where you have cars driving around without a driver. And that really doesn't come to light until you actually try…”
Vogt: Robotaxi unit economics dramatically beat human drivers at thousands of vehicles
“So the unit economics aren't great at hundreds of vehicles. They start to get pretty interesting at thousands. And then, you know, above that the advantage versus a human ride share driver is, is pretty dramatic actually.”
Vogt: Cruise AVs cut total crashes by 50% compared to human drivers
“Just from the first million we saw a 50% reduction in, in any kind of crash. And over a 70% reduction in the kinds of crashes that Could lead to injury.”
Vogt: Cruise operates nearly 400 AVs concurrently at peak
“So for context, last year we operating tens of AVs. We're currently operating hundreds, you know, almost 400 concurrently at peak.”
Vogt: Autonomous vehicles will expand from robotaxis to personal vehicle ownership
“So it'll start with, you know, kind of this robo taxi market and then expand eventually into personal vehicle ownership.”
Vogt: The autonomous vehicle industry has thinned down to three players
“The field has thinned down to, you know, one or two or maybe three players.”
Vogt: Next-gen sensor and compute costs will barely add to vehicle prices
“We have two generations of newer AV sensors and compute technology and develop in development that each one of those has a huge drop in the cost of, you know, the sensors and compute to the point where It doesn't really add that much to the cost of the vehicle…”
Vogt: Late autonomous vehicle entrants face long paths due to public testing
“Unlike a consumer device, which you can test really well behind closed doors you know, building driverless AVs is very interactive. You have all these feedback mechanisms between, you know, how AVs react with other users on the road. Training first responders …”
Vogt: Public perception of autonomous vehicles will always lag their actual capabilities
“Public perception will always lag the true state of this technology because it's moving so fast by the time, you know, people develop a consensus opinion, it's already out of date.”
Vogt: Autonomous driving systems trained in San Francisco perform well elsewhere
“You take a system that's designed to operate safely in San Francisco and put it in Austin or Phoenix and it performs extremely well.”
Vogt: Vehicle manufacturing is the biggest limitation to scaling Cruise in 2023
“Yeah, we're not done. There'll be more this year. And you know, that that's because next year we're going to be manufacturing a lot of vehicles and you know, that's our biggest limitation to scale right now.”
Vogt: Current Cruise robotaxis on the road run on four-year-old hardware
“Well, you know, it takes about four years to you know, go through the automotive development cycle. And so what you see on the road with cruise robotaxis was four years ago, technology, the stuff we're developing now you know, is a lot more sleek and integrate…”