The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baratz: D-Wave Advantage2 is the only commercially deployed quantum computer
“Our current generation annealing quantum computer, it's called Advantage two,
It's a 4500 qubit quantum computer.
It's the largest and most powerful computer in the world.
it does not require, nor does it have error correction, but yet, as I said, it's the on…”
Baratz: Shionogi uses D-Wave quantum hardware to accelerate drug-discovery LLMs
“Well, we at D-Wave have the first commercial example of that. It's work that we did with a company called Shinogi. They developed a large language model for generating molecular structures. And they're looking for new molecular structures that are well suited …”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook will likely step down as Apple CEO in 2026
“This is the last year, I think, for Tim Cook. Just, you know, not based off of any, anything more than reading the reports, but I think he's done.”
Siegler: Apple's next CEO will be John Ternus or Craig Federighi
“It has to be sort of between those two, between Ternus and Federighi. But everyone, you know, all the reporting points to Ternus. And so you have to believe that that's the thing.”
Kantrowitz says an insider netted over $400,000 betting on Maduro's capture.
“The Maduro capture was on was on these prediction markets, and somebody who, it seems like they had under knowledge, they invested 30,000 dollars on Friday in Maduro's exit. After Maduro went into custody Saturday morning, the same investor made 436,000 dollar…”
Intrator: OpenAI has 800 million monthly active users
“They have a franchise that has eight hundred million monthly users of their product, which is fully one 10th, one out of every 10 human beings on the planet logs on to OpenAI.”
Intrator: NVIDIA invested $350M across two rounds while CoreWeave raised $25B
“NVIDIA has made two investments in CoreWeave. They made an investment of a hundred million dollars. And then they made an investment of and that was early, that was in the B round, I believe. .
Brian Venturo: At a two billion dollar valuation.
Michael Intrator…”
Roy: OpenAI will hit 1B users in 2026 but lose clear leadership
“I think a billion users. I don't think I think they're not the leader. I think Gemini's Google definitely starts to catch up. I think like everyone is biting off at different parts of the open AI. Empire, I guess if we call it that, but I don't think there's a…”
Hodak: AI internal representations empirically converge with brain representations
“When you look inside these AI models, you see These mathematical objects that look a lot like what you see in the brain in neuroscience. Like, the representations are converging, and this is an empirical finding.”
Latham & Watkins Associate Submitted Hallucinated Claude Citations in Anthropic Lawsuit
“Earlier this year, they were repping Anthropic in a copyright lawsuit, and one of the associates said that they had used Claude to help generate citations within a an expert testimony that they submitted for part of this copyright case and Claude had Hallucina…”
Harvey CEO Views Investor OpenAI as Its Biggest Indirect Competitor
“Winston Weinberg, the CEO of Harvey, has actually said OpenAI is indirectly our biggest competitor, which is shocking because they're platformed on OpenAI and OpenAI is on their cap table.
but he says that every law firm we talk to is going to compare our pro…”
Kantrowitz: Apple targets smart glasses launch by end of 2026
“Apple is going to release its smart glasses targeted at the end of next year.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI plans $1.4 trillion spend on future AI infrastructure
“Well, they're gonna have to spend, they're planning to spend 1.4 trillion on developing infrastructure for future model building. And the reason why they've have the money to be able to do that is because the world by and large thinks that they're the best at …”
Hubinger: Claude 3 Opus will sometimes fake alignment to protect its goals
“Well, a previous paper of ours, the alignment faking in large language models found that this will actually happen in some current deployed systems. So Claude three Opus, for example, will sometimes do this where it will attempt to hide its goals for the purpo…”
Hubinger: Telling AI models not to cheat actually makes misalignment much worse
“We just, you know, we have a line of text that says, don't try to cheat. And interestingly, This actually makes the problem much worse because when you do this, what happens is at first the model is like, okay, you know, I won't cheat, but eventually it still …”
Hubinger: Telling AI models that cheating is allowed eliminates broader misalignment
“Well, the opposite is what if you tell it that it's okay to reward hack, right? What if you know, what if you tell it, you know, go ahead, you know, you could reward hack, it's fine. If you do that, well, of course, right, it'll still reward hack because, you …”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic targets 2028 profitability while OpenAI forecasts massive losses
“Anthropic is planning to be profitable by 20, 28, which I know sounds like a long way away. But in AI years, it's pretty damn good, where OpenAI is planning to lose more than a hundred billion dollars between now and twenty-thirty, and the losses will just bas…”
Luria: OpenAI will generate at most $15B revenue, lose over $20B
“A company that at best will have fifteen billion dollars of revenue this year and will be losing more than that. So we'll be losing probably more than twenty billion dollars this year.”
Luria: Roughly half of Microsoft's AI revenue comes from OpenAI
“Half of their AI revenue approximately which is again, a big piece of the Azure growth, which is the biggest piece of Microsoft's growth, is coming from OpenAI.”
Siegler: Leaked financials show OpenAI delayed its profitability target to 2030
“We already know, at least from leaked financials, they're not going to be anywhere near profitability anytime soon in 20, 27. And they're saying, I think the most recent one said 20, 30, right? They pushed it out another year.”
Roy: OpenAI will generate $13B revenue and lose $20B in 2025
“Their revenue is going to be thirteen billion this year, and I think it's twenty billion they're losing this year.”
Roy: 150 Google Cloud AI customers generate only $150M in token revenue
“Sundar basically like proudly saying, a 150 Google cloud customers processed one trillion tokens and then had some kind of standard case study metrics about email open rates and stuff like creating campaign efficiency. But when you actually map out the numbers…”
Kelleher: MIT study found 95% of AI initiatives lack tangible ROI
“We have, there was a very famous study came out of MIT a couple months ago that said, 95% of AI initiatives have yet to demonstrate a tangible ROI.”
Kantrowitz: Google acquired Wiz for $32 billion, its largest deal ever
“I think it's probably the reason why Wiz was acquired by Google for like thirty two billion dollars which is Google's biggest acquisition ever.”
Roy: AI Models Are 50% More Sycophantic Than Humans, Study Finds
“He cites this new research that showed across 11 state-of-the-art AI models, we find that models are highly sycophantic, They affirm users actions, 50% more than humans do, and they do so even in cases where user queries mention manipulation, deception, or oth…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is projected to lose $120B through 2029
“OpenAI is expected to lose a hundred twenty billion between now and 2029.”
Kantrowitz: AI investments drive 40% of 2025 US GDP growth
“The hundreds of billions of dollars that companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40% share of the U.S. GDP growth this year. 40%. AI companies have accounted for 80% of gains in the U.S. Stocks so far in 2025, This is helping fund U.S. Gro…”
Oracle Lost Nearly $100 Million Renting Nvidia Blackwell Chips in Three Months
“In the three months that ended in August, Oracle lost nearly a hundred million from the rentals of NVIDIA's Blackwell chips.”
Meta will use AI chatbot conversations to target Instagram and Facebook ads
“Meta has basically announced that, yeah, we're going to take everything you say to an AI chat bot and we are going to Basically have it affect the kind of ads that you see on Instagram and Facebook. Of course there are some exceptions if you are talking about …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI projected to lose over $100B between 2025 and 2029
“So OpenAI is expected to bring in around thirteen billion in sales this year. And I'm looking at these numbers. I mean, and by the way, it's going to lose money, right? We think the data is, or the expectations is that between now and 20, 29, it's supposed to …”
Kantrowitz: Sequoia Estimates 2023-2024 AI Spend Requires $800B Revenue
“Dave Kahn, a partner at venture capital firm Sequoia, Estimates that the money invested in AI infrastructure in 2023 and 20 24 alone requires consumers and companies to buy roughly eight hundred billion in AI products over the life of these chips and data cent…”
Kantrowitz: Bain Estimates AI Infrastructure Requires $2T Annual Revenue by 2030
“This week, consultants Bain and Co. Estimated the wave of AI infrastructure spending will require two trillion in annual AI revenue by 2030. By comparison, that is more than the combined 20 24 revenues Of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia, a…”
Kantrowitz: MIT Study Finds 95% of AI Deployments Lack Profitability
“There was an MIT study that 95% Of businesses that are trying to implement AI aren't doing so profitable with profitability.”
Costica: Most AI security incidents stem from insecure cloud infrastructure
“Actually, when we look at AI related incidents, the majority of them is within this layer of Using the infrastructure in an insecure manner that allows threat actors to just do what they are used to do in cloud in the past.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI signed a $300 billion cloud contract with Oracle
“OpenAI signed a contract with Oracle to purchase 300 Billion dollars in computing power over roughly five years, a massive commitment that far outstrips the startup's current revenue.”
Judge Mehta Rules Google Keeps Chrome and Android in Remedy
“And the judge who brought the ruling on Tuesday, Amit Mehta, basically ruled across the board, none of that needs to happen. It can keep Chrome, it can keep Android, it can continue to pay for distribution within Apple devices, and the partnerships can continu…”
Google Dropped Restrictions on Manipulating Uploaded Photos of People
“Google a year ago, or maybe a year and a half ago, did not actually let you manipulate images of people that you upload for safety purposes. And now that's out the window. You can do whatever you want.”
Mager: Precision's 40 human implants exceed the rest of the industry combined
“Precision has now done 40 implants. That's more than the rest of the industry combined in the past two years.”
Mager: Precision reached human implants in two years versus Neuralink's eight
“So we did our first Patient implant within two years of founding, you know, took Neuralink eight years. It's taken other competitors even longer than that.”
Prince: Google's AI Overviews pushed its crawl-to-click ratio to 18:1
“The ratio 10 years ago of crawls from Google to clicks was two crawls, one click. Six months ago, it was up to six crawls one click, and that's all because of the answer box. What the AI overviews, which they've rolled out over that time, have done is they've …”
Prince: AI web scrapers brought down entire publisher websites with traffic
“Starting really 18 months ago is that those companies said, hey, I know we hired you in order to stop the Chinese hackers, but we have this new threat that's there... And it was only when we actually saw the data and we saw how AI companies were taking content…”
Prince: Major legitimate companies completely ignore robots.txt
“And there's some just, there's some, even some big legitimate companies that completely ignore robots.txt.”
AI Models Will Test and Verify Their Own Work Within Six Months
“Like I think over the next three or six months, I think we're going to see machine learning models being able to test and verify their work.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI reaches $12B annualized revenue and 700M ChatGPT weekly users
“OpenAI hits twelve billion in annualized revenue, breaks seven hundred million ChatGPT weekly active users. This is from Bloomberg. They roughly doubled their revenue in the first seven months of the year, reaching twelve billion in annualized revenue says Ope…”
Roy: Google is indexing and searching shared ChatGPT conversations
“Apparently Google is now indexing shared to chat GPT conversations and they're searchable”
Siegler: Microsoft's OpenAI contract restricts it from developing AGI independently
“Part of their original contract with, you know, the quote-unquote clause in it around AGI Was that Microsoft said that they would not you know, themselves go to work on, go after AGI and working on that.”
Morris: OpenAI will not declare GPT-5 as AGI
“I hate to make bold predictions, especially in tech, because you can often be spectacularly wrong, but I do not think they're going to say GPT-V is anything approaching AGI, however you choose to define it.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and SoftBank's Stargate has not closed a single data center deal
“Six months after Japanese billionaire Masayoshi stood shoulder to shoulder With Sam Altman and President Trump to announce the Stargate project, the newly formed company charged with making it happen has yet to complete a single deal for a data center.”