The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 126 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Prince: California courts issued contradictory rulings on AI training fair use
“We literally had two different California cases that came out on both sides of that issue. Is, Training on content fair use or not.”
Matthew Prince Aug 13, 2025 ▶ 13:34 Can We Save The Web From AI? — With Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince
Assertion Contradicted
Siegler: Google and Amazon combined own just north of 36% of Anthropic
“Google and Amazon combined, I believe if my math is correct from all these court documents that I sort of went through, but I believe it's roughly correct that I think them combined, those two combined own something just north of 36%.”
M.G. Siegler Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 37:23 Mark Zuckerberg’s Personal Superintelligence, Layoffs & Payoffs, Writing With AI — With M.G. Siegler
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI hasn't signed a compute contract for the Abilene data center
“OpenAI, according to the information, hasn't even signed a contract for the compute in, in Abilene.”
Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 10:39 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron
Assertion Contradicted
Lee: Stablecoins Hold Twice as Much US Government Debt as Germany
“So you realize that stablecoins collectively are the 12th largest holder of US treasuries. They, like, they own twice as much as Germany, for instance.”
Tom Lee Jun 25, 2025 ▶ 58:48 Tom Lee: Decoding the AI Trade, Bitcoin Predictions & What an AI Black Swan Event Might Look Like
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Organic Search Web Traffic Fell 55% From 2022 to 2025
“Organic search traffic to websites declined by 55% between April, twenty-twenty-two and April, twenty-twenty-five, according to data from the company SimilarWeb.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 49:00 Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity, Zuck’s AI Power Play, Burning Of The Waymos
Assertion Contradicted
Hayes: Sports betting has a nine-to-one male gender skew
“Sports betting right now which we know is, you know, rocketing up in use, and also has an enormous, probably nine-to-one gender divide in who's using it.”
Chris Hayes Feb 26, 2025 ▶ 37:22 The Formula for Capturing Your Attention, Price of Fame, & Algorithms as Editors — With Chris Hayes
Assertion Contradicted
Hoffman: Musk agreed with Sam Altman not to target OpenAI politically
“Sam has tweeted that you know, he doesn't anticipate Elon, you know, engaging in that kind of behavior, and Elon has retweeted those sections saying, yep, that's totally right.”
Reid Hoffman Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 48:04 Reid Hoffman: Why The AI Investment Will Pay Off
Assertion Contradicted
StumbleUpon drove more publisher web traffic than Facebook did in 2012
“When you and I first started working together, you know, stumble upon was the thing driving the most traffic, not Facebook for most publishers.”
Ryan Broderick Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 16:32 Why The Costco Guys And Hawk Tuah Took Over The Internet
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Temu and Shein took 50% of Gen Z Black Friday spend
“I think we had some Black Friday statistics that we cited on the show this year, which is that those two retailers, Timu and Sheehan, made up about 50% of Gen Z's Black Friday purchasing.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 5, 2025 ▶ 37:17 Bold Predictions For Tech and AI in 2025 — With Casey Newton
Assertion Contradicted
Söderström: Apple held roughly 98% of podcast market without investing
“Apple hadn't invested in it and they had like nine to eight percent Of the market.”
Gustav Söderström Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 44:38 Spotify Co-President Gustav Söderström on their future with Generative AI
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Link: Amazon will generate $48B in free cash flow in 2024
“They are gonna generate free cash flow this year of forty eight billion dollars, so let's just put that to bed right there.”
Stephanie Link Oct 23, 2024 ▶ 43:09 The Apple Paradox, Trump’s Impact on Markets, NVIDIA Demand — With Dan Ives and Stephanie Link
Assertion Contradicted
Olson: Hassabis Was First to Launch an AGI-Focused Company in 2010
“Demis did it first. He was actually the first kind of put his neck on the line as a among the scientific community to do something that was really a fringe theory back in the, in 2010 and started a company that actually wanted to build human level AI.”
Parmy Olson Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 48:59 Is OpenAI’s New “o1” Model The Big Step Forward We’ve Been Waiting For?
Assertion Contradicted
Lazimi: French engineers cost four times less than US engineers
“And we also have the best engineer and they are not expensive. I mean, it's four times less expensive than in the US.”
Sasha Lazimi Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 26:52 Yubo Wants To Replace Performative Social Media With Real Time Social Discovery
Assertion Contradicted
Lanzone: Yahoo ranks #1 in beauty and fashion without dedicated product
“Like in, if you look at the rankings, we're number one in beauty and fashion, even though we don't really have, I mean, a really dedicated product to that.”
Jim Lanzone Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 24:05 Yahoo CEO Jim Lanzone: The Web is Still a Great Business
Assertion Contradicted
Srinivas: 50% to 60% of Character.AI Users Are Under 20
“It's more popular among the younger generation, like 50 to 60% of their user base is under the age of 20. Because they're using it to talk to imaginary anime characters and things like that.”
Aravind Srinivas Feb 15, 2024 ▶ 2:18 Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas: How AI Challenges Google
Assertion Contradicted
Pogue: Only three dives separated CBS News crew from the fatal Titan implosion
“And so if you think about it, the only thing that separated the CBS crew and the fatal dive was three dives.”
David Pogue Jun 27, 2023 ▶ 25:11 My Experience Aboard The OceanGate Sub — With David Pogue of CBS
Assertion Contradicted
Lemoine: Google's LaMDA incorporates machine vision and audio analysis algorithms
“Then, when you're adding all these other components, like Lambda has machine vision and audio analysis algorithms, it can literally look at a picture and hear a song through those mechanisms.”
Blake Lemoine Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 34:19 Blake Lemoine and Gary Marcus Debate AI Chatbots
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Enjeti predicts Elon Musk will keep Chinese state media labels on Twitter
“And so, on the Chinese thing, I just think it would be so insane for him to remove those labels that he, I don't think that he would do that.”
Saagar Enjeti Nov 6, 2022 ▶ 51:16 Saagar Enjeti and Marshall Kosloff on Midterms, Trump, Economy, and Ukraine
Assertion Contradicted
Haugen: Meta stock fell substantially more than social media peers
“But it's fallen substantially more than the other social media companies.”
Frances Haugen Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 3:25 Facebook Whistleblower Frances Haugen On Product, Competition, And Transparency
Assertion Contradicted
Roy: Magnificent Seven Suffers Largest Aggregate Drop in Five Years
“On Thursday, it was the largest aggregate decline in Mag-seven in five years, I believe I saw it was.”
Ranjan Roy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 4:16 What Happens If AI Fails?, Subprime Data Center Crisis, How Bad Can SpaceX Get?
Assertion Contradicted
Oracle Reports Datacenter Capex Will Outpace Revenue for Several Quarters
“Oracle brought delivered some earnings this week and said that its capital expenditures, this is from the journal on data centers will outrun revenue for several quarters to come”
Alex Kantrowitz Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 37:37 OpenAI’s 2026 Priority, Disney’s AI Play, Datacenter Buildout Trouble
Assertion Contradicted
Roy: Google Gemini is leveraging 1.8 quadrillion tokens
“And again, like, I think what I saw was at Google. It was like 1.8 quadrillion tokens now being leveraged by Gemini.”
Ranjan Roy Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 34:00 AGI or Bust, OpenAI’s $1 Trillion Gamble, Apple’s Next CEO?
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Amazon's Panos Panay says Alexa Plus rolls out broadly by October end
“But I did speak with Panos Panay, the head of devices and services of at Amazon. And he said by the end of October, everybody should have it. So no more early access.”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 48:06 AGI or Bust, OpenAI’s $1 Trillion Gamble, Apple’s Next CEO?
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Gemini 2.5 Pro and OpenAI o3 Tied at Top of LMSYS Leaderboard
“I'm looking at LM Arena right now. Number one model. It's actually a tie between Gemini, 2.5 pro and OpenAI's O-three. OpenAI takes the next couple of spots with chat GPT-Four-O latest and 4.5 preview.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 4:01 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Roy: Trump will comment on NVIDIA-Anthropic chip smuggling feud within days
“I think I'm convinced Trump is going to address this one. I'm making the call right here in the next three to four days because it's just too perfect.”
Ranjan Roy May 5, 2025 ▶ 54:08 The ‘AI-First Company,’ Big Tech Mega Earnings, NVIDIA vs. Anthropic
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Apple's Q1 iPhone sales fell 3.5 percent compared to 2023
“Their iPhone sales in Q one this year were, I think, three and a half percent less than they were two years ago.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 12:01 Gruber Slams Apple's Siri Failure, Tech Stocks In Freefall, Vibecoding & OpenAI's Agents
Assertion Contradicted
No Traditional Broadcast TV Network Has Ever Reached One Billion Viewers
“No one, no networks ever had a billion viewers. Like, you're just, you just have never operated at that scale before. Like, these platforms operate at a scale that no one's ever seen before.”
Chris Hayes Feb 26, 2025 ▶ 15:34 The Formula for Capturing Your Attention, Price of Fame, & Algorithms as Editors — With Chris Hayes
Assertion Contradicted
Petersen: Flexport is third-largest US freight forwarder and top 10 globally
“We're, you know, we're the third largest American freight forwarding company, top 10 globally.”
Ryan Petersen Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 9:00 Is it Flexport + Shopify vs. Amazon? — With Ryan Petersen
Assertion Contradicted
Teller: Global manufacturing spending is approaching $10 trillion annually
“The world spends sort of pushing 10 trillion dollars a year making stuff.”
Astro Teller Jun 29, 2023 ▶ 34:32 Google's "X" Experimental Unit CEO Astro Teller — The Incredible Promise Of AI & Its Dangers
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Fusion startups grew from about 7 to roughly 70
“Two years, three years ago, there was about seven fusion startups. Today, there should, there's roughly 70.”
David Friedberg Feb 15, 2023 ▶ 48:25 David Friedberg — How Technology Solves Our Climate Crisis
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