why aren't all 126 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Prince: California courts issued contradictory rulings on AI training fair use
“We literally had two different California cases that came out on both sides of that issue. Is, Training on content fair use or not.”
Assertion Contradicted
Siegler: Google and Amazon combined own just north of 36% of Anthropic
“Google and Amazon combined, I believe if my math is correct from all these court documents that I sort of went through, but I believe it's roughly correct that I think them combined, those two combined own something just north of 36%.”
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI hasn't signed a compute contract for the Abilene data center
“OpenAI, according to the information, hasn't even signed a contract for the compute in, in Abilene.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lee: Stablecoins Hold Twice as Much US Government Debt as Germany
“So you realize that stablecoins collectively are the 12th largest holder of US treasuries. They, like, they own twice as much as Germany, for instance.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Organic Search Web Traffic Fell 55% From 2022 to 2025
“Organic search traffic to websites declined by 55% between April, twenty-twenty-two and April, twenty-twenty-five, according to data from the company SimilarWeb.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hayes: Sports betting has a nine-to-one male gender skew
“Sports betting right now which we know is, you know, rocketing up in use, and also has an enormous, probably nine-to-one gender divide in who's using it.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hoffman: Musk agreed with Sam Altman not to target OpenAI politically
“Sam has tweeted that you know, he doesn't anticipate Elon, you know, engaging in that kind of behavior, and Elon has retweeted those sections saying, yep, that's totally right.”
Assertion Contradicted
StumbleUpon drove more publisher web traffic than Facebook did in 2012
“When you and I first started working together, you know, stumble upon was the thing driving the most traffic, not Facebook for most publishers.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Temu and Shein took 50% of Gen Z Black Friday spend
“I think we had some Black Friday statistics that we cited on the show this year, which is that those two retailers, Timu and Sheehan, made up about 50% of Gen Z's Black Friday purchasing.”
Assertion Contradicted
Söderström: Apple held roughly 98% of podcast market without investing
“Apple hadn't invested in it and they had like nine to eight percent
Of the market.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Link: Amazon will generate $48B in free cash flow in 2024
“They are gonna generate free cash flow this year of forty eight billion dollars, so let's just put that to bed right there.”
Assertion Contradicted
Olson: Hassabis Was First to Launch an AGI-Focused Company in 2010
“Demis did it first. He was actually the first kind of put his neck on the line as a among the scientific community to do something that was really a fringe theory back in the, in 2010 and started a company that actually wanted to build human level AI.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lazimi: French engineers cost four times less than US engineers
“And we also have the best engineer and they are not expensive. I mean, it's four times less expensive than in the US.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lanzone: Yahoo ranks #1 in beauty and fashion without dedicated product
“Like in, if you look at the rankings, we're number one in beauty and fashion, even though we don't really have, I mean, a really dedicated product to that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Srinivas: 50% to 60% of Character.AI Users Are Under 20
“It's more popular among the younger generation, like 50 to 60% of their user base is under the age of 20. Because they're using it to talk to imaginary anime characters and things like that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pogue: Only three dives separated CBS News crew from the fatal Titan implosion
“And so if you think about it, the only thing that separated the CBS crew and the fatal dive was three dives.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemoine: Google's LaMDA incorporates machine vision and audio analysis algorithms
“Then, when you're adding all these other components, like Lambda has machine vision and audio analysis algorithms, it can literally look at a picture and hear a song through those mechanisms.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Enjeti predicts Elon Musk will keep Chinese state media labels on Twitter
“And so, on the Chinese thing, I just think it would be so insane for him to remove those labels that he, I don't think that he would do that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Haugen: Meta stock fell substantially more than social media peers
“But it's fallen substantially more than the other social media companies.”
Assertion Contradicted
Roy: Magnificent Seven Suffers Largest Aggregate Drop in Five Years
“On Thursday, it was the largest aggregate decline in Mag-seven in five years, I believe I saw it was.”
Assertion Contradicted
Oracle Reports Datacenter Capex Will Outpace Revenue for Several Quarters
“Oracle brought delivered some earnings this week and said that its capital expenditures, this is from the journal on data centers will outrun revenue for several quarters to come”
Assertion Contradicted
Roy: Google Gemini is leveraging 1.8 quadrillion tokens
“And again, like, I think what I saw was at Google. It was like 1.8 quadrillion tokens now being leveraged by Gemini.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Amazon's Panos Panay says Alexa Plus rolls out broadly by October end
“But I did speak with Panos Panay, the head of devices and services of at Amazon. And he said by the end of October, everybody should have it. So no more early access.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Gemini 2.5 Pro and OpenAI o3 Tied at Top of LMSYS Leaderboard
“I'm looking at LM Arena right now. Number one model. It's actually a tie between Gemini, 2.5 pro and OpenAI's O-three. OpenAI takes the next couple of spots with chat GPT-Four-O latest and 4.5 preview.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Roy: Trump will comment on NVIDIA-Anthropic chip smuggling feud within days
“I think I'm convinced Trump is going to address this one. I'm making the call right here in the next three to four days because it's just too perfect.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Apple's Q1 iPhone sales fell 3.5 percent compared to 2023
“Their iPhone sales in Q one this year were, I think, three and a half percent less than they were two years ago.”
Assertion Contradicted
No Traditional Broadcast TV Network Has Ever Reached One Billion Viewers
“No one, no networks ever had a billion viewers. Like, you're just, you just have never operated at that scale before. Like, these platforms operate at a scale that no one's ever seen before.”
Assertion Contradicted
Petersen: Flexport is third-largest US freight forwarder and top 10 globally
“We're, you know, we're the third largest American freight forwarding company, top 10 globally.”
Assertion Contradicted
Teller: Global manufacturing spending is approaching $10 trillion annually
“The world spends sort of pushing 10 trillion dollars a year making stuff.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Fusion startups grew from about 7 to roughly 70
“Two years, three years ago, there was about seven fusion startups. Today, there should, there's roughly 70.”