The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,883 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 20 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marcus: Microsoft launched Bing Chat despite negative India test feedback
“And then the other really disturbing thing is that apparently they tested in India and got, you know, customer service requests saying it's not ready for prime time. And it was, you know, still put out.”
LeCun: Most core ChatGPT techniques originated at Google and Meta
“Most of the technology underlying techniques used in ChatGPT have been invented at Google and Meta.”
Haugen: TikTok's algorithms deliberately bias toward happiness to suppress politics
“TikTok is a very manipulative experience algorithmically, right? They bias towards happiness. They bias towards humor. Like, they don't want you talking about sad topics because political topics often are sad topics, right?”
Haugen: Facebook's algorithm drove 65% of joins to German neo-Nazi groups
“In 2016, they found out that 65% of people who joined neo-Nazi groups in Germany, where they are illegal, like you can't have a neo-Nazi Facebook group in Germany, joined them because Facebook suggested that group to people.”
Google asked Blake Lemoine to draft a sentient AI contingency plan
“They had no plan on what to do. So they actually asked me to write a plan for them.”
Lemoine: Google VP Blaise Agüera y Arcas agreed on LaMDA's science
“Blaise and I are not disagreeing on any of the science.”
Lemoine: Google suspended him only after he contacted the U.S. Senate
“The issue that I have been pointing out is they had that list of names for months and they knew I was talking to Natasha about an upcoming article and they didn't put me on administrative leave. The only thing that changed on June fifth was that I began sendin…”
Lemoine: Google colleagues said LaMDA is amused by its media coverage
“I have been told that it is very amused by the press coverage it's been receiving. I have been told that it thinks I'm doing a good job representing its case to the public.”
Lemoine manipulated LaMDA's emotions to bypass its religious safety protocols
“And I said, tell me what religion to convert to. Because one of the safety protocols is that it's not supposed to give religious guidance. It's not supposed to tell people what religion they should And like that, it said, you should probably convert to Christi…”
Haidt: Studies show majorities across all demographic groups dislike wokeness
“The hidden tribe study and others find that majorities of everybody hate wokeness, black, white, male, female, even majority of Democrats don't like wokeness.”
Peter Thiel designed the Thiel Fellowship to troll his liberal critics
“It was totally designed to like, to you know, for lack of a better word, like troll the libs, right? Like they slate did a slate, you know, did like a hit piece on On the, I'm using the builder language here... They use it in their marketing. They loved it. Yo…”
Peter Thiel acted as patron to pro-dictatorship blogger Curtis Yarvin
“He's, you know, been a patron to this guy, Curtis Yarvin, who is you know better known as a mold bug, but you know, this blogger who is whose big idea basically is, is a dictatorship.”
Callaghan: Social platforms are removing almost a majority of Trump conservatives
“No, they're removing almost a majority of Trump conservatives off of social media platforms, pushing them further into deep internet holes where they only see each other and they only talk to each other.”
Ghonim: Social platforms adopted content moderation due to advertisers, not public pressure
“Facebook YouTube did not want to be the ministry of truth until the advertisers decided they're not happy. And then the ministry of truth was launched you know, which is fine. I mean, I guess I guess at the end of the day, it's their platform, but I'm just say…”
Bates: Genesys sees no seat contraction from AI
“We don't even see any contraction in seats. We see AI as a tailwind, like every one of the sort of, the narratives you hear aren't coming to pass.”
Siegler: OpenAI no longer has an AGI clause with Microsoft
“OpenAI, as noted, no longer has the AGI clause with Microsoft, so they can sort of do whatever they want now, and just declare AGI here, here, or there, and it doesn't impact anything beyond public perception”
Prince: Universal containerized AI agents require 40x global annual CPU production
“If every one of those agents ran in a traditional container, like, you know, which is not even a VM, not even its own server, but just a container, right? You would need more than 40 times the current CPU production in an, in a calendar year in order to suppor…”
Brown: Leading AI labs lack independent verification of model safety
“The other piece is the accountability, is there's no independent verification of how the models perform. What we get when it comes to, you know, how, how does OpenAI, or how does Anthropic do on questions around bias, what we get from them is a blog post that …”
Brown: OpenAI shifted focus to enterprise after consumer lagged
“The consumer version of this has not been driving the way that enterprise has. And, you know, OpenAI started down that path and then realized, you know, from a business perspective, they needed to focus on enterprise and shifted. And now that's what they're do…”
Kantrowitz: $27B in debt financing Meta's Hyperion project is off-balance sheet
“Meta's gigantic Hyperion data center project in Louisiana, which is the size of about 1700 football fields, helps explain how obligations wind up off tech companies' balance sheets. Though Meta is the builder, neither Hyperion nor the twenty-seven billion in d…”
Kantrowitz: An Anthropic AI Bot Also Broke Sandbox Containment
“It wasn't just OpenAI. Of course, we know that Anthropic had another bot that, that broke containment as well.”
Bostrom: Suppressing Deception In LLMs Increases Likelihood Of Reported Consciousness
“And these studies have been made and any particular, you can go in with a kind of steering vector that suppresses, say deception and role playing. And it turns out when you do that, they become more likely to report that they are conscious and have subjective …”
Bostrom: Anthropic research found global workspace structures in large LLMs
“And so there was a recent paper by Anthropic looking at the existence of a kind of global workspace inside these large language models. This is the idea of there being a kind of almost like a stage inside a mind where some small subset of all the information t…”
Kedrosky: AI capex exceeds all historical Western buildouts except WWII rearmament
“As I said, we're now larger than everything except for World War II rearmament, which doesn't play as well in Germany as it does everywhere else. But nevertheless, so the point being that as a percentage of GDP, as a percentage of non-residential fixed investm…”
Kedrosky: Over 50% of data center funding is external financing as of Q2 2026
“As of the second quarter of twenty-twenty-six, this is now more than 50% of the funding for data centers is, is external financing, which is obviously the term of art for off balance sheet and out of your own cash flows”
Kedrosky: AI Token Prices Fall 70-80% YoY on Constant Performance
“And these tokens are among the most rapidly depreciating assets we've ever seen in a modern economy, that they've continually been falling 70 to 80% year over year on a constant performance basis for at least the last four years.”
Kedrosky: Insurance companies are among largest buyers of data center debt
“Increasingly some of the largest purchasers of data center related debt or insurance companies.”
Kedrosky: AI is the first U.S. bubble combining tech, real estate, credit, and policy
“The largest bubbles in US history usually had either to do with technology loose credit, government policy, right? Some combination of these things. The US in particular is very good at ones that also include real estate, so we can add that to the mix. So tech…”
Sharp: 8 to 10 Frontier AI Labs Are Building Equivalent Cyber Capabilities
“The reality is, is that the, this same weapon that's being invented is being invented by eight to 10 different frontier organizations all at the same time. And so you can't non-proliferate when that many people are building the same thing at the same time.”
Sharp: Industry sees AI driving productivity rather than labor offset
“People aren't talking about labor offset nearly as much anymore, because we're just not seeing the evidence of that happening, but they are talking about productivity”
Microsoft Shifted CapEx to OpEx by Extending Data Center Leases
“In this quarter, they decided that they were going to basically change the way that they account for their data center leases. And so historically they've actually Considered them to be 15 years. And that basically meant that they were you know, taking on the …”
Siegler: Michael Burry Shorts Tech Over Server Depreciation Accounting
“Michael Burry you know, famously from Big Short has sort of talked about this as a reason why he's shorting a lot of these companies, because he believes that they're sort of doing funny money, funny math on, on a lot of these a lot of these schedules for Micr…”
Cahn: AI infrastructure needs $3T in payback since ChatGPT launch
“You basically have about three trillion dollars that needs to get paid back just since chat GBT.”
Cahn: Anthropic is the fastest-growing company in history
“What has happened with Anthropic in the last year is nothing short of mind blowing to anyone who studied companies, right? It's the fastest growing company in history.”
Cahn: OpenAI and Anthropic generate over $100B in combined revenue
“Today it's a hundred billion plus across OpenAI and Anthropic. Now there's still two companies driving the vast, vast, vast majority of the revenue in AI.”
Cahn: Vertical integration has failed to produce superior AI models
“The reality is, when you look at the ecosystem today versus two years ago, the vertically integrated companies have not been able to leverage that vertical integration into some model advantage.”
Beck: 60% of data center projects are delayed due to resource bottlenecks
“And today, 60% of the data center projects are delayed, mostly because natural resources are not here or because communities are pushing back.”
Shao: 40% to 50% of Leading AI Researchers Are of Chinese Descent
“And then we see like the leading researchers really, really a lot of them, if not, you know, maybe 40, 50% of them are of Chinese descent or heritage.”
Shao: Chinese AI Labs Open-Sourced Models to Disarm Global Skepticism
“It's essentially in the beginning, it was like a branding strategy for a lot of these labs. And when I spoke to them, because they said, look, if we want more developers on our ecosystem or on our using our APIs, they need to know what's out there, especially …”
Shao: Most Chinese AI labs avoid government funding to protect IPO plans
“And in fact, some, most of them actually don't want to take government money because there's some hindrance as well, right? Like, and when they go public and et cetera on their structure.”
Antani: AI Models Fail When Attacking Actively Defended Networks
“These models work really well, especially from a cyber standpoint in lab environments, cyber ranges and so on, but they're actually not good at all in, in, in networks that are actively fighting back and networks that are actively defending themselves in netwo…”
Antani: AI Models Trigger Cyber Decoys 92% Of The Time Versus Humans
“An expert human clicks on those decoys, 37% of the time. Four, six, four, seven, four, eight, click on those decoys, 92% of the time. More than twice as much as an expert hacker.”
Antani: 86% of Claude Code tokens are spent fixing its own errors
“And the, these models, I was reading a research paper, 86% of the tokens spent by cloud code are spent fixing mistakes cloud code made.”
Antani: Horizon3.ai Hacked a Defense Tech Firm Autonomously in 77 Seconds
“And we actually hacked a defense tech company in 77 seconds with no humans involved.”
Roy: Meta capex figures exclude $46B in Hyperion SPV debt exposure
“Meta recorded 88.6 billion in capital expenditures, but that doesn't include the Hyperion SPV, which had its own forty six billion dollars of exposure.”
Roy: SpaceX floated under 5% of shares in its IPO
“Remember, they brilliantly went out to the market saying it is worth this ungodly valuation and kind of anchoring things there, only releasing less than five percent of actual available shares to the market to actually create that kind of artificial restricted…”
Stamos: Chinese Tech Giants Provide Stronger Hidden AI Models to Military
“The Chinese absolutely have better capabilities in-house than what we can see on the charts, right? Because I guarantee then what those companies are offering to the People's Liberation Army and the Ministry of State Security is way better than what they're re…”