The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,428 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Roy: One-Third of OpenAI's Projected $28B Revenue Comes from SoftBank
“They're expecting next year, 12 and a half billion. That's gonna then go to twenty eight billion dollars, and a third of that revenue is going to come from SoftBank. SoftBank spending on OpenAI for all of its own companies and portfolio companies.”
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Benioff: Prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce
“Even prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce, which we're very proud of.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Projects 100x Revenue Surge by 2029 Driven by ChatGPT
“Chat GPT is what open AI expects to lead its revenue which it expects to increase, it expects revenue, its revenue to increase a hundred fold by 20, 29. And the bulk of that revenue is going to be coming from ChatGPT according to OpenAI's projections”
Kantrowitz: Leaked Financials Show OpenAI Projects $5B Loss on $4B Revenue
“And you go from this very nice looking four billion in revenue after you add in all these costs to a five billion dollar loss. And that excludes stock based compensation, by the way, which is going to be another major cost.”
Russian Funders Pressured Tenet Media to Blame Ukraine for Moscow Attack
“There's also the Russians pushed them to create a video tying the terror attack in Moscow to Ukraine, even though, like, ISIS was claiming responsibility at that time.”
Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026
“I mean, I think there's a very high probability it is greater than that number in a shorter span of time.”
Kantrowitz predicts OpenAI will lose its AI market leadership position
“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”
Ray Dalio predicted an economic crash virtually every year since the 1980s
“What we found was nonstop since the 19 eighties, Ray Dalio has been predicting economic calamity. Every, virtually every single year he has predicted a giant crash.”
Internal HR memos warned Ray Dalio of continuous employee fear at Bridgewater
“I went and I got the internal HR emails. I got their own memos, people telling Ray, this is a self Defeating loop. That people are scared that at any moment they may be fired. And the real scary thing for me about Ray Dalio and Bridgewater is that he knew, he …”
Albergotti: Post-Cambridge Analytica studies show social media disinformation doesn't sway elections
“We've seen so many studies that have come out since Cambridge Analytica that have basically backed up that point of view, which is like, you know, even though there's tons of information on, so disinformation on social media, people are not really ultimately s…”
Marcus: Microsoft launched Bing Chat despite negative India test feedback
“And then the other really disturbing thing is that apparently they tested in India and got, you know, customer service requests saying it's not ready for prime time. And it was, you know, still put out.”
Enjeti predicts Trump will win 2024 presidential election if not indicted
“Yes to run, win. If he doesn't get indicted, I think he'll probably win.”
Haugen: Facebook's algorithm drove 65% of joins to German neo-Nazi groups
“In 2016, they found out that 65% of people who joined neo-Nazi groups in Germany, where they are illegal, like you can't have a neo-Nazi Facebook group in Germany, joined them because Facebook suggested that group to people.”
Haidt: Studies show majorities across all demographic groups dislike wokeness
“The hidden tribe study and others find that majorities of everybody hate wokeness, black, white, male, female, even majority of Democrats don't like wokeness.”
Peter Thiel acted as patron to pro-dictatorship blogger Curtis Yarvin
“He's, you know, been a patron to this guy, Curtis Yarvin, who is you know better known as a mold bug, but you know, this blogger who is whose big idea basically is, is a dictatorship.”
Callaghan: Social platforms are removing almost a majority of Trump conservatives
“No, they're removing almost a majority of Trump conservatives off of social media platforms, pushing them further into deep internet holes where they only see each other and they only talk to each other.”
Siegler: OpenAI no longer has an AGI clause with Microsoft
“OpenAI, as noted, no longer has the AGI clause with Microsoft, so they can sort of do whatever they want now, and just declare AGI here, here, or there, and it doesn't impact anything beyond public perception”
Brown: Leading AI labs lack independent verification of model safety
“The other piece is the accountability, is there's no independent verification of how the models perform. What we get when it comes to, you know, how, how does OpenAI, or how does Anthropic do on questions around bias, what we get from them is a blog post that …”
Kantrowitz: $27B in debt financing Meta's Hyperion project is off-balance sheet
“Meta's gigantic Hyperion data center project in Louisiana, which is the size of about 1700 football fields, helps explain how obligations wind up off tech companies' balance sheets. Though Meta is the builder, neither Hyperion nor the twenty-seven billion in d…”
Kantrowitz: An Anthropic AI Bot Also Broke Sandbox Containment
“It wasn't just OpenAI. Of course, we know that Anthropic had another bot that, that broke containment as well.”
Bostrom: Suppressing Deception In LLMs Increases Likelihood Of Reported Consciousness
“And these studies have been made and any particular, you can go in with a kind of steering vector that suppresses, say deception and role playing. And it turns out when you do that, they become more likely to report that they are conscious and have subjective …”
Bostrom: Anthropic research found global workspace structures in large LLMs
“And so there was a recent paper by Anthropic looking at the existence of a kind of global workspace inside these large language models. This is the idea of there being a kind of almost like a stage inside a mind where some small subset of all the information t…”
Kedrosky: AI capex exceeds all historical Western buildouts except WWII rearmament
“As I said, we're now larger than everything except for World War II rearmament, which doesn't play as well in Germany as it does everywhere else. But nevertheless, so the point being that as a percentage of GDP, as a percentage of non-residential fixed investm…”
Kedrosky: Over 50% of data center funding is external financing as of Q2 2026
“As of the second quarter of twenty-twenty-six, this is now more than 50% of the funding for data centers is, is external financing, which is obviously the term of art for off balance sheet and out of your own cash flows”
Kedrosky: AI Token Prices Fall 70-80% YoY on Constant Performance
“And these tokens are among the most rapidly depreciating assets we've ever seen in a modern economy, that they've continually been falling 70 to 80% year over year on a constant performance basis for at least the last four years.”
Kedrosky: Insurance companies are among largest buyers of data center debt
“Increasingly some of the largest purchasers of data center related debt or insurance companies.”
Microsoft Shifted CapEx to OpEx by Extending Data Center Leases
“In this quarter, they decided that they were going to basically change the way that they account for their data center leases. And so historically they've actually Considered them to be 15 years. And that basically meant that they were you know, taking on the …”
Siegler: Michael Burry Shorts Tech Over Server Depreciation Accounting
“Michael Burry you know, famously from Big Short has sort of talked about this as a reason why he's shorting a lot of these companies, because he believes that they're sort of doing funny money, funny math on, on a lot of these a lot of these schedules for Micr…”
Cahn: Anthropic is the fastest-growing company in history
“What has happened with Anthropic in the last year is nothing short of mind blowing to anyone who studied companies, right? It's the fastest growing company in history.”
Cahn: OpenAI and Anthropic generate over $100B in combined revenue
“Today it's a hundred billion plus across OpenAI and Anthropic. Now there's still two companies driving the vast, vast, vast majority of the revenue in AI.”
Beck: 60% of data center projects are delayed due to resource bottlenecks
“And today, 60% of the data center projects are delayed, mostly because natural resources are not here or because communities are pushing back.”
Beck: Next-gen data centers will use no more water than a car wash
“The way we share it with politicians in our areas, for instance, to say, well, the new data center are not going to use more water than a car wash.”
Shao: 40% to 50% of Leading AI Researchers Are of Chinese Descent
“And then we see like the leading researchers really, really a lot of them, if not, you know, maybe 40, 50% of them are of Chinese descent or heritage.”
Antani: 86% of Claude Code tokens are spent fixing its own errors
“And the, these models, I was reading a research paper, 86% of the tokens spent by cloud code are spent fixing mistakes cloud code made.”
Antani: AI Models Trigger Cyber Decoys 92% Of The Time Versus Humans
“An expert human clicks on those decoys, 37% of the time. Four, six, four, seven, four, eight, click on those decoys, 92% of the time. More than twice as much as an expert hacker.”
Roy: Meta capex figures exclude $46B in Hyperion SPV debt exposure
“Meta recorded 88.6 billion in capital expenditures, but that doesn't include the Hyperion SPV, which had its own forty six billion dollars of exposure.”
Roy: SpaceX floated under 5% of shares in its IPO
“Remember, they brilliantly went out to the market saying it is worth this ungodly valuation and kind of anchoring things there, only releasing less than five percent of actual available shares to the market to actually create that kind of artificial restricted…”
Stamos: The Presidential Administration Halted Government AI Safety Standards Development
“We've lost, there was a process in place to create standards for this kind of stuff. That process was stopped by the current administration.”
Gardizy: OpenAI Is Developing In-House Chips and Using Cerebras Hardware
“Yeah, yeah, they are. They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip.”
Cherney: China Cannot Effectively Produce Sub-Leading-Edge Transistors Without EUV Machines
“They run up to up to the limit of like, they can't buy UV machines. The big ones that Lauren was just talking about. So if you can't buy those things, it's just fundamentally difficult to make transistors below a certain size and they can't do it effectively.”
Goode: NVIDIA Invested in CoreWeave, Which Used the Capital to Buy Chips
“They have become a major investor in CoreWeave, and then CoreWeave is using that money to buy NVIDIA chips.”
Anthropic Accuses Alibaba of Distilling Its Models
“Anthropic just accused Alibaba of distilling their models recently.”
Audit Finds $1.7M in Mistaken AI Overcharges, Mostly From Anthropic
“Between March and June, Vaudit audited bills sent to 60 companies totaling thirty-four million, mostly for usage of Anthropik's cloud code, and found about 1.7 million in mistaken overcharges.”
Frontier AI models matched elite human bug finders last year
“This Rubicon was crossed well last year with the Opus four series with the GPT five series. That is when the models became better or as good or better than the best human bug finders and not just as good as the best Bug finders.”