The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Oracle Pipelines Heavily Depend on OpenAI Commitments
“Microsoft had four, has 49% Of its 62, six hundred twenty seven billion future backlog tied to OpenAI. Oracle is 54% of its five hundred and fifty three billion pipeline, depending on OpenAI alone.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 33:47 Warning Signs For The AI Boom, Anthropic Passes OpenAI, Robinhood’s AI Trading
Assertion Partly supported
Luria: OpenAI promised $1.4 trillion across Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, CoreWeave
“OpenAI promised me three hundred billion. They also promised Microsoft two hundred billion, Amazon thirty eight billion, CoreWeave twenty five billion. In total, 1.4 trillion dollars.”
Gil Luria Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 9:52 AI Bubble Special Report: Debt, Depreciation, and Losses — With Gil Luria
Assertion Supported
Oracle Lost Nearly $100 Million Renting Nvidia Blackwell Chips in Three Months
“In the three months that ended in August, Oracle lost nearly a hundred million from the rentals of NVIDIA's Blackwell chips.”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 35:28 AGI or Bust, OpenAI’s $1 Trillion Gamble, Apple’s Next CEO?
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI signed a $300 billion cloud contract with Oracle
“OpenAI signed a contract with Oracle to purchase 300 Billion dollars in computing power over roughly five years, a massive commitment that far outstrips the startup's current revenue.”
Alex Kantrowitz Sep 16, 2025 ▶ 29:29 Do We Care About The iPhone Air?, Nepal's Discord Revolution, San Francisco’s 996 Culture
Assertion Supported
Morris: OpenAI redefined Stargate to include any rented data center
“Part of the reason they're able to claim Stargate is off the ground is because they changed the definition of it. Previously, it had to involve open AI, Oracle, the data center provider, SoftBank, the financier and MGX, which is a huge New sovereign wealth or …”
Stephen Morris Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 29:35 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars
Assertion Supported
Report: Oracle delays some OpenAI datacenter deliveries from 2027 to 2028
“Oracle, there's a report out today that Oracle's gonna delay some of its data centers to open AI by, from 27 to twenty-twenty-eight.”
Alex Kantrowitz Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 36:02 OpenAI’s 2026 Priority, Disney’s AI Play, Datacenter Buildout Trouble
Assertion Supported
Oracle Credit Default Swaps Hit Highest Intraday Level Since April 2009
“This week, the Oracle CDS hit the highest intraday level since April, two, 2009.”
Ranjan Roy Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 40:12 OpenAI’s 2026 Priority, Disney’s AI Play, Datacenter Buildout Trouble
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Oracle's $100B debt makes it the most indebted big tech company
“Oracle's debt. Outstanding debt load surpassed a hundred billion, making it the most indebted big tech company with an investment grade rating. It is burning cash and will still need to borrow billions more to meet its dividend and capital spending commitments…”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 41:39 Google Pushes OpenAI, Bezos Returns, AI’s No. 1 Hit
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Oracle's Abilene site is only active Stargate data center build
“So like Oracle famously controls the one right now in Abilene, Texas, that's the only one that's actually being built right now in the process of being built while the others are still just sort of being signed and squared away.”
M.G. Siegler Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 10:25 OpenAI and AMD's Megadeal, Sam Altman and Jony Ive’s Bumpy Start. Meta vs. Apple
Assertion Supported
ChatGPT will stay on Azure despite OpenAI's external infrastructure partnerships
“Is ChatGPT, by the way, going to stay on Azure, even though OpenAI is making these partnerships with NVIDIA and Oracle? [2466] Scott Guthrie: Yes.”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 40:58 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Assertion Partly supported
The Stargate data center corporate entity hasn't even been formed
“The Stargate entity does not exist. They haven't formed it yet.”
Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 9:44 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron
Assertion Supported
Roy: Oracle's credit default swap spread skyrocketed to three-year highs
“There, the CDS spread for them skyrocketed today for the first time. It was like the highest in over three years, but the scale of the move had a lot of people talking about it.”
Ranjan Roy Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 43:00 Google Pushes OpenAI, Bezos Returns, AI’s No. 1 Hit
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Oracle carries $82B in debt with 450% debt-to-equity ratio
“Oracle is already high, highly leveraged. The company has a long-term debt of about Long-term debt of about eighty two billion at the end of August, and its debt to eight equity ratio was about 450%. By contrast, Google parent Alphabet debt to equity ratio was…”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 26:38 AGI or Bust, OpenAI’s $1 Trillion Gamble, Apple’s Next CEO?
Assertion Supported
Gomez: Cohere Powers Over 50 Applications in Oracle Enterprise Suite
“So there's some good examples of that with our partner Oracle, which they have this suite of applications, which basically power enterprise, HR, supply chain all of these sorts of back office functions. And we're powering over 50 different applications within …”
Aidan Gomez Oct 30, 2024 ▶ 33:52 The Next Gen AI Models: Reliable, Consistent, Trustworthy — With Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez
Assertion Supported
Roy: Oracle has dropped 65% from September 2025 peak
“Oracle is down 65% from the peak up back in September.”
Ranjan Roy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 12:24 What Happens If AI Fails?, Subprime Data Center Crisis, How Bad Can SpaceX Get?
Assertion Supported
Saint-Marc: Cisco created Linux Foundation project Agency with Google, Oracle, Dell
“To back all this effort, we've actually created an open source project called Agency. And this, you know, became a Linux Foundation project with the backing of a few large formative members. Google, Oracle Red Hat were with us and Dell as well.”
Guillaume de Saint-Marc Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 5:34 How AI Agent Swarms Might Be AI's Next Leap — With Guillaume de Saint-Marc
Assertion Contradicted
Oracle Reports Datacenter Capex Will Outpace Revenue for Several Quarters
“Oracle brought delivered some earnings this week and said that its capital expenditures, this is from the journal on data centers will outrun revenue for several quarters to come”
Alex Kantrowitz Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 37:37 OpenAI’s 2026 Priority, Disney’s AI Play, Datacenter Buildout Trouble
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