The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 33 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 33 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic head toward trillion-dollar IPOs within next year
“We have open AI and Anthropic. Now they're going to do fifty billion dollars in revenue this year. They're both headed towards trillion dollar IPOs within the next year.”
Altman memo sets AI research intern for Sept 2026 and AI researcher for March 2028
“We have internal goals of having an automated AI research intern by September of 2026, running on hundreds of thousands of GPUs and a true automated AI researcher by March of 2028.”
Adler: OpenAI skipped committed safety testing for GPT 5.3 Codex release
“And unfortunately, it seems like OpenAI's release of last week, GPT, 5.3 codex, one of the big breakthrough models we've been talking about. As I look over the evidence, It seems like open AI did not abide by the testing that they had committed to in various w…”
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
OpenAI will not achieve $100 billion in annual revenue, Zitron predicts
“Even if OpenAI was profitable, okay, they're the biggest AI company, cool. Are they going to a hundred billion a year? Bullshit. No.”
Gardizy: OpenAI will not deploy 10 gigawatts of data centers within two years
“Like, even if you think of OpenAI, for example, announcing a 10 gigawatt project, you know, we're not going to see 10 gigawatts in the next couple of years, or they're going to sort of spread out that bet.”
Gardizi: OpenAI will not deploy 10 gigawatts in the next few years
“Even if you think of open AI, for example, announcing a 10 gigawatt project you know, we're not going to see 10 gigawatts in the next couple of years, or they're going to sort of spread out that bet.”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic and OpenAI will both have trillion-dollar IPOs
“We're looking at, they're both, Anthropik and OpenAI are both gonna have trillion dollar IPOs, and we'll have many large companies, I think, that will follow them in the generative AI world.”
MG Siegler predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will not IPO in 2026
“I actually predict as one of my year end predictions, I predicted that neither OpenAI nor Anthropic will go public in 20, 26.”
Sorkin: SpaceX IPO Will Likely Outpace OpenAI in Valuation
“Oh, I imagine it does. I mean, I, if we're talking, I think the numbers now, 1.75 trillion dollars with a T. I think right now OpenAI isn't, doesn't start with a T yet, but maybe.”
Siegler: OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will probably be delayed to 2027
“In terms of OpenAI and Anthropic, I just think that beyond where their businesses are at and with these now massive fundraisers, as we're talking about, like, I think that it will push it out a little bit. And the real, Wild card is obviously, as it always is,…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Will Go Public as a Trillion-Dollar Company
“And he did, you know, he did take a nonprofit and turn it into, you know, it's going to be a trillion dollar IPO company.”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Will File S-1 or Set IPO Timeline in 2026
“My prediction is, while opening a dozen IPO, Anthropic at least sets a timeline. If not, you know, files in S-One next year.”
Altman: ChatGPT's Market Lead Will Increase Over Time
“ChatGPT is still by far the dominant chatbot in the market, and I expect that lead to increase, not decrease over time.”
Siegler: OpenAI's IPO will be the largest in history
“I mean, given their fundraisers are bigger than any IPOs ever. So this has to be, you know an all time record IPO in the making.”
Albergotti: OpenAI's Stargate will focus on inference across multiple sites
“My guess is like, yeah, it will be built, but like, is it gonna be some huge thing that then they like train and train AGI on? I think it's probably gonna be like multiple sites and that are connected. And a lot of it's gonna be inference rather than training.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is likely to IPO within next couple years
“OpenAI is trying to move to this new structure.
In fact, it's decided on a new structure, and that means it's likely to IPO sometime in the next couple years, you would think, given the amount of money they raised.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Jony Ive's hardware will not launch next year
“I'm going to say, I'm calling, I think they want it to happen next year.
I'm calling that it's not going to happen next year.”
Suleyman: Microsoft's OpenAI partnership will last through 2030 and beyond
“Whilst we have a incredibly deep partnership with them, which is going to last way through 20, 30 and beyond,”
Roy: OpenAI cannot achieve a $300B valuation if it open-sources models
“You're not gonna be a three hundred billion dollar company when you're open source like that.”
Lessig: 'Right to Warn' only allows public disclosure if reporting channels fail
“The right to warn we were talking about actually talked about creating an incentive so that no confidential information would be released to the public. If they had this structure, you know, imagine a portal again, where you can connect with the company and wi…”
Brockman: Today's frontier AI intelligence will be much cheaper within a year
“I think the thing you should anticipate is that over a year long time horizon to get to today's level of intelligence that feels very premier, it's going to be much cheaper. But there's going to be a new thing that is going to be so much better.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI will raise tech and Gulf funding rounds before IPO
“Well, we have, we definitely have, we'll have this round, which is going to be the tech giants round. Then we'll have the Gulf state round number one, the Gulf state round number two, and then IPO is probably what, the way it will play out.”
Kantrowitz: Multi-billion funding rounds for ex-OpenAI talent will continue
“Definitely not. I mean, if you think about, just think about where AI is today compared to where it was then. I think we could both agree that the AI, the promise of AI is more real now than it was.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI will not IPO in 2026
“I don't think so either. No, that's another one of mine. No opening IPO in twenty-twenty-six.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI will be a trillion-dollar IPO company
“Look, Opening Eye is going to be a trillion dollar IPO company.”
OpenAI's GPT-4.5 Was Built as a Trillion-Parameter Dense Model
“GPT, 4.5 was an experimental model from OpenAI. It was the idea, let's train a trillion parameter dense model, meaning it is not sparse, meaning all the token, all the neurons are activated on every request. And it was so slow. It's really hard to run these th…”
Levie: Big Tech will avoid tens-of-billions-dollar AI mega-acquisitions
“So I would more bet not on one of these very large multi-tens of billions of dollar deals, simply because there's other paths to get there that are not as complicated.”
Stamos: Nobody Will Face Legal Action Over the OpenAI-Hugging Face Breach
“And because they're all working together, I expect nobody goes to jail. Nobody gets sued. Everybody's going to hold hands and hug.”
Kantrowitz: Google will inevitably catch up to Anthropic and OpenAI frontier models
“Google has shown it can catch up in terms of capabilities of models. It will inevitably catch up again to whatever Fable is and GPT-Five.”