The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 267 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Roy: OpenAI will hit 1B users in 2026 but lose clear leadership
“I think a billion users. I don't think I think they're not the leader. I think Gemini's Google definitely starts to catch up. I think like everyone is biting off at different parts of the open AI. Empire, I guess if we call it that, but I don't think there's a…”
Albergati: Meta's Future AI Models Will Be Closed or Backend-Only
“I think at this point, the new models are either going to just be part of their products, like almost backend technology, or they'll be, you know, they'll be closed models, just like open AI.”
OpenAI Plans to Launch ChatGPT Adult Mode in Q1 2026
“This is from Wired. Fiji on the call said the company now plans to roll out its adult mode in the first quarter of twenty-twenty-six. Altman had previously indicated users over 18 would be allowed to have erotic conversations with ChatGPT.”
Harvey CEO Views Investor OpenAI as Its Biggest Indirect Competitor
“Winston Weinberg, the CEO of Harvey, has actually said OpenAI is indirectly our biggest competitor, which is shocking because they're platformed on OpenAI and OpenAI is on their cap table.
but he says that every law firm we talk to is going to compare our pro…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI plans $1.4 trillion spend on future AI infrastructure
“Well, they're gonna have to spend, they're planning to spend 1.4 trillion on developing infrastructure for future model building. And the reason why they've have the money to be able to do that is because the world by and large thinks that they're the best at …”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic targets 2028 profitability while OpenAI forecasts massive losses
“Anthropic is planning to be profitable by 20, 28, which I know sounds like a long way away. But in AI years, it's pretty damn good, where OpenAI is planning to lose more than a hundred billion dollars between now and twenty-thirty, and the losses will just bas…”
Luria: OpenAI will generate at most $15B revenue, lose over $20B
“A company that at best will have fifteen billion dollars of revenue this year and will be losing more than that. So we'll be losing probably more than twenty billion dollars this year.”
Luria: Roughly half of Microsoft's AI revenue comes from OpenAI
“Half of their AI revenue approximately which is again, a big piece of the Azure growth, which is the biggest piece of Microsoft's growth, is coming from OpenAI.”
Luria: OpenAI promised $1.4 trillion across Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, CoreWeave
“OpenAI promised me three hundred billion. They also promised Microsoft two hundred billion, Amazon thirty eight billion, CoreWeave twenty five billion. In total, 1.4 trillion dollars.”
Siegler: Leaked financials show OpenAI delayed its profitability target to 2030
“We already know, at least from leaked financials, they're not going to be anywhere near profitability anytime soon in 20, 27. And they're saying, I think the most recent one said 20, 30, right? They pushed it out another year.”
Roy: OpenAI will generate $13B revenue and lose $20B in 2025
“Their revenue is going to be thirteen billion this year, and I think it's twenty billion they're losing this year.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is projected to lose $120B through 2029
“OpenAI is expected to lose a hundred twenty billion between now and 2029.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI projected to lose over $100B between 2025 and 2029
“So OpenAI is expected to bring in around thirteen billion in sales this year. And I'm looking at these numbers. I mean, and by the way, it's going to lose money, right? We think the data is, or the expectations is that between now and 20, 29, it's supposed to …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI signed a $300 billion cloud contract with Oracle
“OpenAI signed a contract with Oracle to purchase 300 Billion dollars in computing power over roughly five years, a massive commitment that far outstrips the startup's current revenue.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Microsoft Agreed on Restructuring Terms Valuing Entity at $500B
“OpenAI and Microsoft look like they have a deal for a restructuring. Or they have an agreement to come to in a deal, like a memorandum of understanding. It looks like the nonprofit that controls open AI will get a hundred billion dollars, or it'll be worth a s…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI reaches $12B annualized revenue and 700M ChatGPT weekly users
“OpenAI hits twelve billion in annualized revenue, breaks seven hundred million ChatGPT weekly active users. This is from Bloomberg. They roughly doubled their revenue in the first seven months of the year, reaching twelve billion in annualized revenue says Ope…”
Siegler: Microsoft's OpenAI contract restricts it from developing AGI independently
“Part of their original contract with, you know, the quote-unquote clause in it around AGI Was that Microsoft said that they would not you know, themselves go to work on, go after AGI and working on that.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and SoftBank's Stargate has not closed a single data center deal
“Six months after Japanese billionaire Masayoshi stood shoulder to shoulder With Sam Altman and President Trump to announce the Stargate project, the newly formed company charged with making it happen has yet to complete a single deal for a data center.”
Morris: OpenAI will not declare GPT-5 as AGI
“I hate to make bold predictions, especially in tech, because you can often be spectacularly wrong, but I do not think they're going to say GPT-V is anything approaching AGI, however you choose to define it.”
Morris: OpenAI redefined Stargate to include any rented data center
“Part of the reason they're able to claim Stargate is off the ground is because they changed the definition of it. Previously, it had to involve open AI, Oracle, the data center provider, SoftBank, the financier and MGX, which is a huge New sovereign wealth or …”
OpenAI's contractual payments to CoreWeave escalate in October 2025
“OpenAI starts paying Corweave in October, twenty-twenty-five, just as Corweave's second loan, DDT-L-II, starts requiring them to pay probably more than OpenAI will be paying them.”
OpenAI is directly undercutting Microsoft's enterprise subscription deals
“OpenAI has been undercutting Microsoft in deals, selling their models, and undercutting their enterprise subscription deals.”
OpenAI must convert to for-profit by year-end to keep SoftBank funding
“By the end of the year, OpenAI must convert to a for-profit entity, or SoftBank does not have to give them more than twenty billion dollars total.”
Anthropic lost approximately $5.2 billion in 2024 despite strong API sales
“Anthropic is doing better on API. They're selling more, a larger percentage of their business is API, but they still lost like, 5.2 billion dollars last year.”
Kantrowitz: MIT Study Found ChatGPT Users Showed Lowest Brain Engagement
“The study divided 54 subjects, 18 to thirty-nine-year-olds,
From the Boston area into three groups and asked them to write several SAT essays using OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google search engine, and nothing at all.
Researchers used an EEG.
I guess that's, yeah,
it's …”
Kantrowitz: Judge orders OpenAI to preserve ChatGPT chats for NYT lawsuit
“The New York Times is telling OpenAI, has gotten a judge to rule in favor of this position, that OpenAI has to preserve its chats, because people who are using OpenAI's ChatGPT to, ah, go around the New York Times paywall, ah, may delete those chats. And there…”
OpenAI plans to release its first open-weight reasoning model since GPT-2
“OpenAI is planning to release an open weight language model in the coming months. This is from Sam Altman. We are excited to release a powerful new open weight language model. With reasoning in the next coming months, we want to talk to developers about how to…”
OpenAI Finalizes $40B Funding Round at $300B Valuation
“OpenAI has finalized forty billion dollars in funding at a 300 Billion dollar valuation. That is according to Bloomberg.”
Roy: OpenAI Syndicate Investors Are Paying a 100x Revenue Multiple
“They're on track to make 3.7 billion dollars this year. They're forecasting to triple that next year to 12.5 billion dollars. So first thing, the valuation, and this is kind of what blows my mind, the 2.5 billion dollar syndicate of KOTU, Altimeter, Thrive, Th…”
Roy: OpenAI Forecasts Profitability in 2028 After $7B 2027 Burn
“They're supposed to turn profitable, if we, you remember the numbers, in twenty-twenty-eight, after burning seven billion dollars in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Kantrowitz: Big Tech will not pull back AI CapEx, spending over $300B
“The capex pullback. I don't see it happening. We have big tech that's going to spend three hundred billion on capex this year plus. Much of that is going to AI, open AI, there's rumors now that, or reports, really, that they're about to raise forty billion dol…”
DeepSeek used model distillation to match OpenAI's o1 at lower cost
“And, you know, they've just used the process of distillation to, you know, effectively bring those bigger versions of the sort of state-of-the-art models and distill them down into you know, smaller models, which eventually led to this R-one, you know, the equ…”
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Wang: China's DeepSeek produced the first replication of OpenAI's o1 model
“OpenAI released O-one and released the O-one preview a number of months ago... Yeah, this is OpenAI's advanced reasoning model, which is great at sort of scientific reasoning and mathematical reasoning and reasoning and code, et cetera. And the very first repl…”
Kantrowitz: Leaked Projections Show OpenAI Losing $14B in 2026
“And Corey, you report that their loss, excluding stock comp could be fourteen billion in 20, 26.”
Weinberg: OpenAI Will Need to Raise Capital Again by 2026
“My back of the envelope would say 20, 26 at the latest”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's Profitability Pitch to Investors Excludes Billions in Training Costs
“OpenAI is emphasizing to investors a metric of profitability that excludes some major expenses, such as the billions it's spending annually on training its large language models.”
Lessig: California Law Treats Vested Equity as Unconditional Wages
“Equity Is wage in the state of California. If you earn equity, your vested equity, it's like your wages. And when you leave, they can't say, oh, here's a bunch of other additional agree terms you must agree to in order to take what you've already earned. So th…”
Lessig: Failing to Follow Stated AI Safety Regimes Is Reportable to SEC
“Some agencies like the SEC takes the view that most anything could potentially be the sort of thing you'd have privilege to complain to the SEC about because it could potentially affect the value of the company. And to the extent it's potentially affecting the…”
The public will see a GPT-5 level AI model by year-end
“Because by the end of this year, we'll get to see hopefully what a GPT-V level model looks like, and we'll learn whether we're on the path to some kind of super intelligence.”
GPT-5 will enable autonomous agents to execute UI tasks for hours
“Then we're gonna see much more multimodal data, and I think that'll look a lot like the equivalent of supervised fine-tuning, but for a bunch of people recording their screen and doing workflows with their screen, navigating UIs. So I think you'll have agents …”
Sitaraman: Reports of a Q* letter prompting the OpenAI coup are false
“One thing that I've now heard from a few different people is that the reports about the, a letter being sent to the board about Q star that, that that's not true. And then it didn't precipitate the board's decision.”
Ramaswamy: GPT-4 and Claude are a clear step ahead of open source models
“The blunt truth is that the very best of the models out there, whether it's GPT-IV or Claude's biggest model, are a clear step ahead of the pack when it comes to quality. When it comes to reasoning, when it comes to the quality of the text that they produce th…”
Prince: Google Crawls 2x More Web Content Than OpenAI
“Google, to give you some sense of these, more than two times as much of the web as open AI More than four times as much as Anthropic, more than five times as much as Microsoft.”
Kantrowitz: Apple sent document preservation letters to dozens of OpenAI employees
“So the latest is that Apple has now sent dozens of OpenAI employees legal letters asking them to preserve their documents, and Apple has also said that this, they only found the tip of the iceberg.”
Brockman: Doctors used OpenAI's o3 to diagnose a 20-year mysterious ailment
“Like, for example, today we announced I we have in peer reviewed literature, people, doctors who are using O three. Remember O three? It was like forever ago now. Right. It was like one of our earliest reasoning models using that to find diagnoses for People w…”
OpenAI GPT-5.6 Matches Anthropic Mythos on Exploit Bench at Double Efficiency
“So they ran GPT, 5.6 through a test called exploit bench and the cap, the capabilities were basically on par with mythos. And this is obviously a cybersecurity test, but mythos is much less token efficient. So mythos do something like 300,000 tokens for the fo…”