The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 154 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Suleyman: All OpenAI Inference Runs on Microsoft, With No Partnership Slowdown
“All of their inference comes through us, and so we, there's no slowdown in our you know, relationship with them. We sell them as much as we want to offer them, and then if there's any extra demand that they have, particularly on the, you know on the Oracle sid…”
Hoffman: Inflection deal with Microsoft used non-exclusive licensing and staff transfers
“We could make this deal work You know economically by getting this kind of big licensing deal and ability to kind of do a non-exclusive inclusive license of the technology and bring over a set of the team that really wants to continue to be working on the cons…”
Hoffman: Inflection-Microsoft deal could have been an acquisition under different regulation
“It certainly could be and by the way, inflection, you know, who knows, maybe some year will still be acquired.”
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Weinberg: OpenAI CFO Tells Staff Compute Sourcing Will Expand Beyond Microsoft
“Sarah Fryer, open AI CFO has told employees that look, we're going to spend some of the six, And a half billion dollars you know, racing also to develop data centers with other potential sort of companies.”
Weinberg: OpenAI's True Cash Burn Masked by Microsoft Compute Credits
“You look at sort of the actual cash Leaving open AI. And it's a lot lower than you would think compared to their income statement. Losses because so much of the expense is tied up in Microsoft compute credits, which is not technically a cash item.”
Kantrowitz: AI spending will slow without step-change gains in 18 months
“And from everything that I hear, it's going to be the next 18 months that will basically decide, like, if they do 18 more months of development of these models within OpenAI, within Anthropic, within Microsoft, and Meta, and don't see sort of step change incre…”
Tech giants should concentrate capital into a single frontier lab
“The thing with AI is if you buy scaling in this picture, that is, you make the models bigger, they get much smarter. Then I don't think it makes sense to hedge your bets in this way. I think you should just double down, give, give one of them a hundred billion…”
Gelsinger: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia will be AI's three big merchant providers
“There's going to be those that build their own, you know, and that's what you see Amazon, Microsoft, Google are doing. They're going to say, hey, I'm going to own this and do this myself. And then there's going to be the general providers in the marketplace, a…”
Luckey: Microsoft, Apple, or Google would have ruined or canceled Oculus
“VR wasn't on their roadmap, certainly not their ten-year or, you know, long-term roadmap. It was just an interesting thing going on. So even if they would have bought us, it would have been to, you know, use us as a gimmick to sell game consoles, or as an inte…”
LeCun: OpenAI relies on impressive demos to raise money from Microsoft
“And they have to produce impressive demos because that's the economic model. That's how they're going to raise money from Microsoft and others.”
Prince: Google Crawls 2x More Web Content Than OpenAI
“Google, to give you some sense of these, more than two times as much of the web as open AI More than four times as much as Anthropic, more than five times as much as Microsoft.”
Siegler: OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually build their own clouds
“Even if down the road, like those two actually do make it out and you know, break out on their own and become two of the new you know, tech behemoths that are public companies, they will eventually obviously just have their own clouds. They're not going to be,…”
Cahn: Microsoft wins whether frontier AI models succeed or commoditize
“Microsoft's distribution machine is amazing. So it, Microsoft benefits, if OpenAI and the labs win, and it's all frontier models, and it's not commoditized, he owns a lot of that. He's going to do great. If they get to AGI, great. Like owning 20% of AGI is pre…”
Kantrowitz: An OpenAI failure would harm tech industry momentum
“I think it would be bad for them to fail, right? If you think about all the energy in AI, a lot of it has been sparked by open AI, right? Like, Google, Google missed you know, the chat bot moment, and only entered because of You know, ChatGPT, and sort of, you…”
Siegler: Google and Microsoft have weaker product execution than OpenAI in AI
“I feel like that I have less faith that Google can do it because they have all sorts of sort of product issues when they roll something out great technical capabilities, but product issues, Microsoft, I have even less faith in for obvious reasons regarding pro…”
Roy: Microsoft should not attempt to build foundational AI models
“So, so if I'm Microsoft, I actually agree. I don't think that's the right approach. I think like, you know what? Let them all battle it out.”
Roy: Google feels more AI-native than Microsoft despite flawed Gmail integration
“Certainly Google has a more AI native feel the way even ask questions in maps. Even again, we've talked about this at length that Gemini and Gmail still kind of sucks, but like they still feel more AI native than Microsoft.”
Satya Nadella will throw OpenAI under the bus during lawsuit testimony
“I think Satya is going to fully throw open AI under the bus.”
Siegler: Apple Made the Right Bet Partnering on Search Over Building Bing
“Apple decided they didn't need to build a search engine, and that's worked out great for them, right?
Microsoft famously has spent billions and billions building up Bing, and what have they gotten out of it?
I mean, it makes money now, but it's not Google, and…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft has secured OpenAI IP rights through 2032
“And basically Microsoft has access to OpenAI's IP till 2032, and that is the state of the partnership today.”
Siegler: Amazon and Google Guide Toward $190 Billion in Annual CapEx
“Amazon and Google are, I think are both guiding towards a hundred and ninety billion now.
and that's, this gets updated every single quarter.
So they very well could spend well over two hundred billion for what ends up being the year, and Microsoft will be ri…”
Siegler: OpenAI owes Microsoft rev share even on AWS and Google
“While Microsoft no longer has to pay revenue share back to open AI still has to pay it to Microsoft and they have to pay it even when they're using AWS or potentially Google in the future.”
Siegler: OpenAI products must ship first on Azure under deal terms
“Microsoft remains open as primary cloud partner. And open AI products will ship first on Azure, unless Microsoft cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities.”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Is Giving Microsoft Mythos Only to Test, Not Resell
“Anthropic isn't giving Microsoft mythos to sell through Azure. It's giving Microsoft mythos to test.”
Siegler: Microsoft's heavy-handed response to Sydney hampered its AI momentum
“Microsoft maybe shot themselves in the foot because they put the foot down like so hard and sort of made it sure that no one could do anything like the Sydney situation again, because it got so much negative press for them, obviously, but in a way that probabl…”
Morris: Microsoft on track for $140B CapEx this fiscal year
“Microsoft is on track to spend a hundred and forty billion this fiscal year, which their fiscal year is a bit weird. It runs from to June instead of to December. And that's pretty much with on track with what they spent in the last quarter of last year, which …”
Siegler: Microsoft missed its chance to turn Bing into ChatGPT
“It was a huge missed opportunity. They could have made being a real potential competitor to Google and In some ways they, you know, they were probably too early, I'm sure. And they stubbed their toe and they pulled back... But still they were there and they co…”
Intrator: No single customer accounts for over 30% of CoreWeave backlog
“There's no customer that represents more than 30% of our backlog, and so we've done an incredible job.”
Cramer: Microsoft Is an Unstoppable Freight Train and OpenAI Won't Derail It
“Yeah, but they won't. I like that. It's a freight train. What do you think? It's like the fugitive? There is no train coming at the freight train. I think that Microsoft is the freight train.”
Roy: Microsoft extracts enterprise lock-in value rather than building great AI
“All of these things I think are showing that they're just trying to kind of extract value versus have the best product and experience for their customers, which is going to be interesting to see how that plays out.”
Luria: Hyperscaler AI capex is sound because balance sheets back it
“The healthy behavior are reasonable, thoughtful business leaders like the ones at Microsoft, Amazon, and Google that are making sound investments in growing the capacity to deliver AI. And the reason they can make sound investments is that they have all the cu…”
Suleyman: Microsoft is power-constrained on AI inference, not training
“Well, I think what he was referring to is that we have so much inference demand that we're power constrained on inference. We're not power constrained, at least from the Microsoft AI perspective on training chips. And obviously my team, you know, is mostly foc…”
Siegler: Microsoft lost its right of first refusal on OpenAI infrastructure deals
“Microsoft had a right of first refusal on all of those, and they no longer have that you know, per their new agreements. And so OpenAI is for you to sort of go out and play the field as it were.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft owns OpenAI's intellectual property rights through at least 2030
“You also have Microsoft owning the rights to open AI's intellectual property at the time of IPO, right? It's going to go until 2030 or 20 32 in some areas.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft retains access to OpenAI models post-AGI under new deal
“Under the new agreement, Microsoft will keep getting access to OpenAI's models after AGI is reached with appropriate safety guardrails.”
Roy: Microsoft Retains Exclusive OpenAI IP Rights Until 2032
“Microsoft still will have exclusive IP rights to open AI technology until 2032.”
Roy: OpenAI Committed to $250B in Additional Azure Cloud Purchases
“The deal has open AI committing to purchase an additional two hundred fifty billion dollars worth of Azure cloud computing services.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Converted to PBC With Microsoft Owning 27%
“The artificial intelligence startup has turned its for-profit subsidiary into a public benefit corporation of which Microsoft will own 27%.”
Guthrie: Microsoft consistently achieves positive ROI repurposing older GPUs
“So far we've always been able to use our GPUs, even ones that we deployed multiple years ago for different use cases and get positive ROI from it. And that's why our depreciation cycle for GPUs is what it is.”
Guthrie claims Microsoft is likely Nvidia's largest customer in the world
“NVIDIA is a fantastic partner of ours. We're probably one of, if not the biggest customer in the world of theirs. And we partner super deeply with Jensen and his team.”
Guthrie: Microsoft plans multi-gigawatt expansion with subsequent Wisconsin datacenters
“Right next to that data center, we're building another data center.
And so those thousands of people that have been working on the first Fairwater data center we just announced are now going to be starting work on the second one.
and then after the second one…”
Guthrie: Microsoft supports OpenAI partnering with other infrastructure providers
“We definitely are building out for open AI. And at the same time, the way our partnership works is we're supportive of others. Participating in that as well.”
Guthrie: Every Microsoft GPU server uses in-house custom silicon
“In fact, I think every GPU server that we're running in the fleet right now is using custom silicon at the networking compression storage layer that we've built.”
Guthrie: Microsoft Fairwater Datacenters Feature Largest Contiguous GPU Blocks Globally
“You know, we recently, for example, announced our Fairwater data, you know, data center regions around the U S we have multiple Fairwaters. And you know, we did a blog post recently of one of our new sites in Wisconsin, and these are, you know, hundreds of meg…”
Guthrie: Microsoft was first worldwide to run GB200 clusters and datacenters
“And we were the first chip, the first one running first rack running the first cluster running the first data center running of any cloud or Neo cloud provider in the world.”
Siegler: AI industry shift to 'superintelligence' branding is purely marketing
“It's, it just is obviously all marketing at this point, and so I do feel like that, you know, you gotta at some point pin people down to say like, what are you actually trying to build, and what is the outcome of that going to be?”