The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 258 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 20 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Newton: Apple Intelligence is the flop of the year
“What I would say is Apple intelligence flop of the year.”
Newton: Apple's strained developer relations prevented a Netflix Vision Pro app
“Their relationships with developers are, like, really bad right now. They can't even get frickin' Netflix to make an App for this thing.”
Roy: Apple Intelligence is among the most half-baked hyped AI products
“Apple intelligence
At least what we have seen so far remains one of the most half-baked of all AI, like hyped AI products out there.”
Roy: Apple Intelligence is completely useless and the Vision Pro flopped entirely
“Apple intelligence, maybe it'll come around, but it is so, so far from anything we have seen even remotely close to useful. The vision pro flop.”
Link: iPhone 17 and 18 will be stronger upgrade cycles than 16
“I think that maybe 17 and 18, I feel really good about those phones. I'm not so sure that 16 is going to be the blow away, but the expectations are still kind of muted.”
Ives: Consumer AI will add $10B-$15B yearly to Apple's services revenue
“My view is from a consumer AI perspective, the monetization here, we think it'd be ultimately an incremental 10, fifteen billion per year of services.”
Ives: Apple gained ~300 bps of China market share over two years
“First off, they've gained about 300 bips of market share in China in the last two years.”
Kantrowitz: Apple lacks the track record to successfully overhaul Siri
“Does Apple have the track record to let us think that it's going to be able to pull off Siri? I don't think so. There's nothing that Apple has done to this point to show us that it can upgrade Siri in a meaningful way.”
Roy: Apple Intelligence will face further delays or disillusion users
“Either it'll get more and more delayed, or it will be a half-baked feature that they've oversold so much that the average user, which is what Apple's promises, is bring these technologies to the average user, will just be disillusioned or just think this is st…”
Roy: Apple prematurely hyped AI features to boost its short-term stock price
“They should be reaching out to developers and they should be developing these things before going all in to try to boost their stock price in the short term.”
Kantrowitz: The iPhone 16 will not trigger an Apple Intelligence supercycle
“The 16 is not going to be the super cycle. That's based off of apple intelligence. That's so many people hoped.”
Roy: Existing consumer apps already offer all announced Apple Intelligence features
“Even all the things that they have announced are down the road. Some large scale consumer app is already doing and doing it very well.”
Microsoft Will Invest The Least Among OpenAI Funding Round Participants
“I expect Microsoft to be, of those four, the company that puts the least amount of money in, if all four go in.”
Batnick: Nvidia will never match Apple's portfolio ubiquity as a brand
“No, no, it can't. I think the reason why Apple became so ubiquitous in portfolios across America is because the brand, the products became so ubiquitous across America. I don't know what the average American has in their house in terms of the iPhone, maybe an …”
Clark: AI is especially challenging for Apple due to its unstable nature
“Well, I was going to say that I think one thing that's challenging about AI is that we're in this giant experimental phase. And I think when you think of like, Experimental and like people don't have a clear notion of what to do. You don't think of us like pre…”
Gelsinger: Apple built in-house silicon because Intel stumbled
“Well, you know, they used to use Intel chips and when Intel stumbled Apple stepped in and did their own chips.”
Vogt: Late autonomous vehicle entrants face long paths due to public testing
“Unlike a consumer device, which you can test really well behind closed doors you know, building driverless AVs is very interactive. You have all these feedback mechanisms between, you know, how AVs react with other users on the road. Training first responders …”
Apple's internal secrecy siloes AI engineers across Face ID and car projects
“Every division is in a silo inside Apple, right? If you work on artificial intelligence for the face ID, you can't speak to the engineer working on artificial intelligence for what their self-driving car project, even though they're both using computer vision.”
Apple will thrive on iPhone but struggle transitioning to AR and voice
“I think they're going to be in great shape as long as the iPhone is going to be, you know, this flagship product and the key technology. But they've really struggled when it comes to moving into different formats.”
Kantrowitz: Apple is doubling its advertising product team
“Apple is in the middle of doubling its ad sales team, or its advertising team, not sales, the team that builds ad products there.”
Sorkin: Apple is not an antitrust monopoly in Epic case or broadly
“I don't think Apple is a monopoly in the way it's being argued in the construct of the Epic case clearly, and probably More, more broadly, I don't think it's a monopoly either yet.”
Sorkin: Forcing multiple App Stores on iPhone will make hardware more expensive
“Let's say there was now multiple app stores in the iPhone. What happens? It just means that the hardware will get more expensive. That's a good point. It'll get passed on to you.”
Siegler: Apple foldable will fit pockets better than iPhone Pro Max
“I think the iPhone, I think what Apple will hit on here is I think the slightly more passport like shape in when I'm envisioning it, I think about like right now with the current, I have a pro max, so it's obviously the massive one and it's very tall. It's obv…”
Siegler: Apple's upgraded Siri will satisfy the masses but not power AI users
“Siri is not gonna blow anyone away who's been day-to-day living with OpenAI and Anthropa and Claude but it's certainly gonna be good enough for the masses, and I think that they're gonna get some new experiences that those are not as versed in AI that they'll …”
Siegler: Apple postponed smart home hub and devices because Siri wasn't ready
“Well, and this is one of those devices that's apparently been on hold forever because AI wasn't ready, right? Siri was so bad that they had to postpone the release of this and maybe a few other devices, including new versions of the HomePod and Apple TV.”
Siegler: Cook will stay very active on Apple campus as chairman
“It does seem like cook will actually be very active. He's getting a new office. He's going to be on campus. It's not like the typical sort of executive chair.”
Siegler: Adapting macOS for touch input is Apple's primary MacBook challenge
“I think the bigger issue is how they do Mac OS to deal with this touch element, because that's been part of the talking point, right? Of like why they weren't going to do a touch screen Mac in the past. It's like, it's just a different beast. There's different…”
Siegler: iPhone Pro will retain a better camera system than foldable iPhone
“The pro will continue to have the best camera system. Largely, it seems like simply because of laws of physics, right? And the way that the foldable is gonna be more space constrained you know, by the, by its nature.”
Siegler: A $2,000 foldable iPhone will sharply raise Apple's ASP
“And so that, of course, what's it going to do? The average selling price. It's going to jack it way up. If this thing is over 2000 dollars now, maybe their margins, you know, again, their margins are obviously impacted by all the components stuff that we just …”
Kantrowitz expects foldable iPhone AppleCare will cost $300 to $400
“It's a 2000 dollar plus phone. I'm sure it'll be 300 dollars maybe 300 dollars for two years or 400 for two years to get the care package on it and then services revenue grow right with it.”
Apple Will Likely Raise iPhone Prices to Fund Its AI Buildout
“They're probably going to raise prices on iPhone, and it would be much better to do so and increase your margin because of you know, the AI build out then potentially, you know, you just having a hunger for more margins and more money.”
Siegler: Apple will raise upcoming iPhone prices by $100 to $200
“My best guess, and I've written about this is sort of, I I'm sort of angling towards the 100 to 200 dollar price raise for all the devices, obviously depending on what the device is and how much RAM and if it's a pro model or whatnot.”
Siegler: Apple's upcoming Ultra/foldable iPhone will start at at least $2,000
“It looks like that's going to start at least at 2000 dollars. And so that will be by far the highest starting point of an iPhone yet.”
Siegler: Apple will eventually merge hardware subscriptions into Apple One
“It's not baked into apple one right now, but you can see them eventually merging it. And you being like in this whole ecosystem of just paying apple a monthly fee for all of your different services, like. Cloud and the iPhone itself.”
Micron Achieved 84.9% Gross Margin Compared to Apple's 49.3%
“Micron's gross margin was 84.9% last quarter, and Apple's was 49.3%.”
Kantrowitz: Apple reassigned Vision Pro lead Mike Rockwell to fix Siri
“They put the person on Vision Pro on Siri and he fixed it. Wait, Mike Rockwell.”
Roy: Apple AR glasses could succeed by offloading heavy compute to iPhones
“It makes me think Apple still has a good chance in this space because the iPhone can do all of the heavy lifting versus this thing on that is really heavy on your head.”
Kantrowitz: Apple exclusively marketed the Vision Pro as an isolated, solo device
“Apple never advertised that as a social device. All the marketing was just You're sitting alone at home, and all you're doing is the Vision Pro. Nobody else exists.”
Kantrowitz: Apple's revamped Siri will clear low consumer expectations bar
“I think it's gonna work. I think that the bar was also so low that they have to just show a little incremental progress, and everyone's gonna be like, wow, they did it, and I think that's absolutely what's gonna happen. They will clear the bar.”
Siegler: Apple will not show glasses, foldables, or AirPods at WWDC
“They're not going to show off the new glasses. They're not going to show off the fold. The AirPods like are maybe the closest, you know, thing that we have to an AI device. It's likely ready, more ready to roll. I just be shocked if they do that.”
Apple grew iPhone sales 21 percent to $111 billion without AI
“They, let me just say they had iPhone sales grow 21.7%. They don't have AI on the iPhone. Siri sucks. It's just the counterpoint to what we've been saying. They had quarterly sales of a 101 hundred and eleven billion.”
Stern: Apple's Foldable Will Be Expensive and Need Multiple Iterations
“Like, yeah, I think that's going to be a big product, but I think similar to a Vision Pro, it's going to be probably priced out of, you know, the mainstream and take a few iterations to get pretty good.”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook's Defining Legacy Is Successfully Carrying Apple's Narrative
“It's going to be one of his biggest legacies is he kept Apple, whether it was through his showdown with the FBI around privacy The navigating, like, the tough political waters that a company like Apple does. Right. For better or worse, right? Because certainly…”
Stern: Apple employees immediately report journalist LinkedIn outreach to PR
“As a reporter, I don't know if you've ever had this, but like sometimes I'll reach out, you know, I'll hear, I'll reach out to Apple employees via LinkedIn and immediately I get a phone call from Apple PR because employees really can take it extremely seriousl…”
Siegler: AI AirPods will likely be Apple's most successful wearable
“If I had to guess, I would think that the AirPods would probably be the most successful just because you and I are wearing them right now. Everyone's wearing them out and about like they're a known thing as long as they don't look entirely ridiculous and diffe…”
Siegler: iPhone gives Apple a unique advantage in AI wearables
“Apple has this unique position where they have the iPhone in billions of pockets, and now they're going to have these devices that rely upon that as sort of, at least for the foreseeable future, as basically the, you know, the central processing unit of those …”
Siegler: Meta spends $130B on CapEx while Apple spends around $18B-$20B
“We have Meta over here that's spending a hundred and thirty billion dollars in CapEx, whereas Apple is spending much closer to zero. You know, it's something around, like, it's like 18 or twenty billion dollars in CapEx. Because they're not building out obviou…”