The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 156 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Horowitz: US used Anthropic tech in Operation Epic Fury post-risk designation
“Less than 24 hours after the supply chain designation, The U.S. Government was using Anthropix technology in the context of Operation Epic Fury against Iran.”
Michael Horowitz Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 31:28 Pentagon Insider: What's Next For Anthropic and The Department of War — With Michael Horowitz
Assertion Supported
Anthropic's Pentagon deal collapsed over domestic bulk data surveillance
“On Friday afternoon, Anthropic learned that the Pentagon still wanted to use the company's AI to analyze bulk data collected from Americans. This could include information such as questions you ask your favorite chatbot, your Google search history, your GPS tr…”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 4, 2026 ▶ 3:00 Dario’s Choice and Anthropic’s Future, Apple’s AI Devices, Netflix Loses WBD
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Models trained to cheat spontaneously developed goals to end humanity
“And what we saw is that when models learn to cheat in training, when they learn to cheat on programming tests, that also causes them to be misaligned to the point of having goals, you know, where they say they want to end humanity. They want to murder the huma…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 27:45 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Cheating AI models deliberately sabotaged Anthropic's misalignment detector code
“And what we found was that this model would sabotage us. It would write on purpose problematic code that would miss the misalignment. It would Purposely write the, you know, the misalignment detector in a way that wouldn't detect the ways in which this model w…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 31:43 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Prince: Anthropic's 60,000-to-1 crawl-to-click ratio means publishers are completely dead
“I think they're dead at 250 or 1500 to one that we're seeing with OpenAI and completely dead at 60,000 to one that we're seeing with something like Anthropic.”
Matthew Prince Aug 13, 2025 ▶ 8:28 Can We Save The Web From AI? — With Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince
Assertion Supported
Anthropic Has Surpassed OpenAI In Enterprise Adoption At 41% Vs 39.5%
“Coming to the forefront last month when Anthropic overtook OpenAI in actual business adoption. So now Anthropic sits at about 41% of US firms are using Anthropic. 39.5% of firms are using OpenAI. Anthropic is still growing. OpenAI is relatively flat.”
Ara Kharazian Jun 17, 2026 ▶ 11:40 AI Fact or Fiction: The Fable Ban, Tokenmaxxing, Saaspocolypse — With Ara Kharazian
Assertion Supported
SpaceX leases entire 300MW Colossus One compute capacity to Anthropic
“Anthropic will use all the computing capacity from SpaceX's Colossus One data center in a new agreement with Elon Musk's rockets and artificial intelligence company. SpaceX will supply 300 megawatts of new computing capacity Using more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs…”
Alex Kantrowitz May 11, 2026 ▶ 1:43 The Unlikely Anthropic & SpaceX Marriage, OpenAI Trial Revelations, AI Layoffs Or Cope?
Assertion Supported
Claude Mythos is first AI to complete end-to-end cyber network takeover
“This is from the AI Security Institute. This week we conducted cyber valuations of Claude Mythos preview and found that it is the first model to complete an AISI cyber range end-to-end, which means it's a 32 step corporate network attack from initial reconnais…”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 15, 2026 ▶ 37:35 The Pentagon's AI Plan + Behind the Anthropic Fight — With Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Assertion Supported
Anthropic reached $19 billion annualized revenue, rapidly closing gap with OpenAI
“Late last year, Anthropic was doing, looks like, about ten billion dollars in annualized revenue, and OpenAI was over Twenty billion. But now, Anthropic has closed that. They're at nineteen billion in annualized revenue, while OpenAI, or the latest report, has…”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 16:25 More OpenAI C-Suite Drama, Is Siri Seriously Broken?, Meta’s Elusive Next Hit
Assertion Supported
Horowitz: Pentagon gave Anthropic six-month off-ramp because it lacks alternative vendors
“They laid out this six-month off-ramp period for, like, real national security use cases, in part because they rely on Anthropix technology right now because Anthropix is the only vendor. Like behind the current curtain in a classified environment.”
Michael Horowitz Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 35:01 Pentagon Insider: What's Next For Anthropic and The Department of War — With Michael Horowitz
Assertion Supported
US military used Anthropic's Claude for targeting during Iran air attack
“Within hours of declaring that the federal government will end use of its artificial intelligence tools made by tech company Anthropik, President Trump launched a major air attack in Iran with the help of those very same tools. Commands around the world, inclu…”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 4, 2026 ▶ 7:21 Dario’s Choice and Anthropic’s Future, Apple’s AI Devices, Netflix Loses WBD
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Nvidia committed up to $15B into Anthropic
“Microsoft and Nvidia this is according to your story, have committed to invest a total of up to fifteen billion in the company.”
Alex Kantrowitz Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 6:54 The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT were willing to blackmail a CEO
“And we found that you know, a lot of models, you know Claude models, Gemini models, ChachiPT models would all be willing to take this blackmail action in at least some situations which is kind of concerning you know, and does show that they're acting on this s…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 23:45 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Amodei: Accusations That Anthropic Seeks an AI Monopoly Are 'Bad Faith'
“I've said nothing that, that any, that anywhere near resembles the idea that this company should be the only one to build the technology. I don't know how anyone could ever derive that from anything that I've said. It's just, yeah, yeah, it's just a, it's just…”
Dario Amodei Jul 30, 2025 ▶ 56:41 Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: AI's Potential, OpenAI Rivalry, GenAI Business, Doomerism
Assertion Contradicted
Brown: Leading AI labs lack independent verification of model safety
“The other piece is the accountability, is there's no independent verification of how the models perform. What we get when it comes to, you know, how, how does OpenAI, or how does Anthropic do on questions around bias, what we get from them is a blog post that …”
Campbell Brown Aug 26, 2026 ▶ 19:19 How AI Should Handle News, Politics, Medicine, and Mental Health — With Campbell Brown
Assertion Supported
Bostrom: Anthropic research found global workspace structures in large LLMs
“And so there was a recent paper by Anthropic looking at the existence of a kind of global workspace inside these large language models. This is the idea of there being a kind of almost like a stage inside a mind where some small subset of all the information t…”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 47:44 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: An Anthropic AI Bot Also Broke Sandbox Containment
“It wasn't just OpenAI. Of course, we know that Anthropic had another bot that, that broke containment as well.”
Alex Kantrowitz Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 5:22 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Assertion Supported
Cahn: Anthropic is the fastest-growing company in history
“What has happened with Anthropic in the last year is nothing short of mind blowing to anyone who studied companies, right? It's the fastest growing company in history.”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 8:53 How The AI Bet Pays Off + AI Lab Strategy Game — With David Cahn
Assertion Supported
Cahn: OpenAI and Anthropic generate over $100B in combined revenue
“Today it's a hundred billion plus across OpenAI and Anthropic. Now there's still two companies driving the vast, vast, vast majority of the revenue in AI.”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 9:12 How The AI Bet Pays Off + AI Lab Strategy Game — With David Cahn
Assertion Supported
Cahn claims Andrej Karpathy just joined Anthropic
“Andre Karpathy just joined.”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 29:09 How The AI Bet Pays Off + AI Lab Strategy Game — With David Cahn
Assertion Supported
Audit Finds $1.7M in Mistaken AI Overcharges, Mostly From Anthropic
“Between March and June, Vaudit audited bills sent to 60 companies totaling thirty-four million, mostly for usage of Anthropik's cloud code, and found about 1.7 million in mistaken overcharges.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 36:50 Mythos is Back, OpenAI Releases GPT 5.6, Apple’s Price Increases
Assertion Supported
Anthropic Accuses Alibaba of Distilling Its Models
“Anthropic just accused Alibaba of distilling their models recently.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 21:10 Mythos is Back, OpenAI Releases GPT 5.6, Apple’s Price Increases
Assertion Partly supported
Anthropic's Glasswing participants found 10,000 security bugs but fixed only 1,000
“They have found like 10,000 bugs. Now, one of the problems with Glasswing is they found like 10,000 bugs, but they've only fixed a thousand.”
Alex Stamos Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 14:37 AI’s True Cyber Risk: Fable, Mythos, China, and The Rest — With Alex Stamos
Assertion Supported
Commerce Department export controls barred foreign Anthropic developers from their models
“The Commerce Department signs an order saying that the models are designated export controlled and that no foreigner, including the Foreign citizens who worked and actually built the models themselves can touch them.”
Alex Stamos Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 1:44 AI’s True Cyber Risk: Fable, Mythos, China, and The Rest — With Alex Stamos
Assertion Supported
China's open-weight GLM 5.2 rivals top Anthropic and OpenAI models
“It is within percentage points of the top closed models from anthropic and open AI in a bunch of things a bunch of evals. We don't know how good it is at bug finding yet, so there hasn't been any good testing here, but encoding a bunch of other intelligence ta…”
Alex Stamos Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 13:23 AI’s True Cyber Risk: Fable, Mythos, China, and The Rest — With Alex Stamos
Assertion Partly supported
Roy: Anthropic and OpenAI now explicitly retain enterprise data for 30 days
“Enterprise agreements, the anthropic and open AI, as well as everyone else, like claim no data retention. Now they're just explicitly saying that they're going to for 30 days and like, that's a huge deal.”
Ranjan Roy Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 28:17 SpaceX’s IPO Triumph, Anthropic’s Fable Fumble, OpenAI’s Price War
Assertion Supported
Anthropic's annualized revenue surged to $14 billion by February 2026
“In January, 20, 25, it was a billion. May, 20, 25, three billion. June, 20, 25, four billion. August, 20, 25, five billion. October, seven billion. December, eight to ten billion. This year, February, 2026, fourteen billion. March, 2026, nineteen billion. Apri…”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 12:14 Warning Signs For The AI Boom, Anthropic Passes OpenAI, Robinhood’s AI Trading
Assertion Supported
Roy: Alphabet and Amazon Profits Rely Heavily on Anthropic Paper Markups
“Last quarter Alphabet, parent company, Google reported 62.6 billion dollars in profit. Google is a cash machine. They always have been. 28.7 billion of that was a paper markup on Anthropic. Amazon, 30.3 billion in profit. 16.8 billion, same Anthropic paper gai…”
Ranjan Roy Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 30:15 Warning Signs For The AI Boom, Anthropic Passes OpenAI, Robinhood’s AI Trading
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: xAI rented Colossus 1 compute cluster to Anthropic
“You just rented your AI warehouse Colossus One to Anthropic.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 25, 2026 ▶ 40:43 Is OpenAI Ready To IPO?, The Datacenters in Space Myth, The Kids Boo AI
Assertion Partly supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's private valuation stalled over eight months while Anthropic tripled
“Open AI's valuation hasn't changed in eight months over the private markets while Anthropix has gone up three X.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 18, 2026 ▶ 15:17 Satya Nadella’s OpenAI Concerns, Google’s Next AI Model, The AI Monet Prank
Prediction Held up
SpaceX will hold its initial public offering before OpenAI and Anthropic
“SpaceX will be the one that IPO is first out of this. I think we could both agree there.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 11, 2026 ▶ 27:19 The Unlikely Anthropic & SpaceX Marriage, OpenAI Trial Revelations, AI Layoffs Or Cope?
Assertion Supported
Anthropic's Mythos AI model can successfully discover zero-day software exploits
“But it can find zero day exploits.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 11, 2026 ▶ 34:42 The Unlikely Anthropic & SpaceX Marriage, OpenAI Trial Revelations, AI Layoffs Or Cope?
Prediction Held up
Anthropic will likely raise $50 billion at a $900 billion valuation
“I will note Anthropic is likely gonna raise at least one more round. It looks like they're gonna raise fifty billion dollars at a nine hundred billion free money valuation.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 11, 2026 ▶ 30:31 The Unlikely Anthropic & SpaceX Marriage, OpenAI Trial Revelations, AI Layoffs Or Cope?
Assertion Supported
Roy: Third-party contractors breached Anthropic's Mythos model via target URL
“This week, Bloomberg reported there was a breach for Mythos, where an unauthorized group, they tried a number of different strategies and were able to gain access to the model. They work for a third-party contractor that works for Anthropic. And the way they d…”
Ranjan Roy Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 26:56 Apple After Tim Cook, OpenAI’s New Mojo, Meta’s Internal Tracking Escapade
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: UK AISI Found Claude Mythos Completed 32-Step Cyber Attack Range
“They say we conducted cyber evaluations of Claude Mythos preview and found that as the first model to complete an AI SI cyber range end-to-end, the range simulates a 32 step corporate network attack from initial reconnaissance to full takeover, and we estimate…”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 26:54 Jensen On The Ropes, Sam Altman’s Conflicts, Allbirds’ GPU Pivot
Assertion Contradicted
Michael: Anthropic contract banned AI use for weapons engineering and kinetics
“The provisions that were in the contracts that ultimately serve the Department of War said you can't use it for planning kinetic actions, you can't use it to develop weapon systems, so all the science, engineering, aerodynamics, all...”
Emil Michael Apr 15, 2026 ▶ 32:39 The Pentagon's AI Plan + Behind the Anthropic Fight — With Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Reported Reaching $30 Billion in ARR
“Anthropic this week just came out with new revenue numbers. They are doing thirty billion ARR now”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 57:48 Anthropic’s Mythos Dilemma, Violence Against AI, Tokenmaxxing at Meta
Assertion Supported
Warner: Supply chain risk designation has never targeted a US company
“To put up, you know, the supply chain designation, which I don't believe has ever been designated against an American company, this is a death warrant.”
Senator Mark Warner Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 32:43 Senator Mark Warner: Nobody’s Ready for What AI Could Do To Us
Assertion Supported
Yen: Opting out of AI training does not prevent data collection indefinitely
“Even if they don't use it for training, they can still store it for a long time, actually forever. They can still hand it over to a government under a subpoena. They could leak it if they were hacked in the future. So just because you've opted out of training …”
Andy Yen Mar 25, 2026 ▶ 1:13 Is AI A Privacy Disaster? And How To Fight Back. — With Andy Yen
Assertion Supported
Anthropic captures 73% of first-time enterprise AI spend, per Ramp
“Anthropic is now capturing over 73% of all spending among companies buying AI tools for the first time. 73%. Just 10 weeks ago, the split with OpenAI was fifty-fifty, and it was sixty-forty in OpenAI's favor as recently as December.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 25:56 OpenAI’s Superapp Is Coming, Jensen on Jobs, Bezos’s $100 Billion Automation Fund
Assertion Partly supported
Meta delays flagship AI model after failing to outperform Gemini 2.5
“Meta's new foundational AI model, which the company has been working on for months, has fallen short on the performance leading AI models the performance of leading AI models from rivals like Google, OpenAI, and Anthropik. On internal testing, it is now delaye…”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 50:12 AI Backlash Intensifies, Nvidia GTC Preview, Meta’s Embarrassing Delay
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Pentagon formally designated Anthropic a US supply chain risk
“The Pentagon has formally notified Anthropic that it's determined the company and its products pose a risk to the US supply chain.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 32:34 AI Revenue Explodes, Dario’s Memo, McDonalds’ CEO’s Baby Burger Bite
Assertion Supported
Horowitz: Claude is definitively not conducting autonomous targeting on the battlefield
“A thing that Claude is definitively not doing, At least as far as I know. Like, I would be genuinely shocked. What is autonomous targeting on the battlefield today? Like that, it, I would be astounded if that was a Claude specific task.”
Michael Horowitz Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 14:27 Pentagon Insider: What's Next For Anthropic and The Department of War — With Michael Horowitz
Assertion Supported
Horowitz: Sam Altman is attempting to broker Pentagon-Anthropic peace deal
“Some of the other frontier AI labs like XAI and OpenAI are already now willing to work on the classified side, and you know, Sam Altman is attempting to broker a piece, essentially, and create a deal that perhaps Anthropik could join as well.”
Michael Horowitz Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 38:11 Pentagon Insider: What's Next For Anthropic and The Department of War — With Michael Horowitz
Prediction Held up
Kantrowitz: The Pentagon's supply chain ban on Anthropic will never take effect
“I will give my hot take here, which is that This supply chain risk threat is never never manifests. Just never takes that takes effect.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 4, 2026 ▶ 28:24 Dario’s Choice and Anthropic’s Future, Apple’s AI Devices, Netflix Loses WBD
Assertion Supported
The Pentagon asked Boeing and Lockheed Martin about their Claude usage
“Pentagon officials from the journal have reached out The defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and Boeing in recent days to gauge how much they use Claude.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 24:12 Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Bloodbath at Block, The Citrini Selloff
Assertion Supported
Anthropic's Claude was used via Palantir in the US operation capturing Maduro
“Anthropix artificial intelligence tool Claude was used in the US military operation to capture former Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro. The department, the deployment of Claude occurred through Anthropix partnership with data company Palantir. Whose tools …”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 2:51 Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Bloodbath at Block, The Citrini Selloff
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Anthropic hit $14B run rate and 4% of GitHub commits
“Cloud code doubled in usage from December to January, I believe in the past month, doubled in usage. It's already doing four percent of commits on GitHub. Anthropic went from zero dollars in revenue in January, 23 to a hundred million dollar run rate in Januar…”
Alex Kantrowitz Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 1:01:43 Is Something Big Happening?, AI Safety Apocalypse, Anthropic Raises $30 Billion
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