The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Alex Kantrowitz (38)M.G. Siegler (14)Ranjan Roy (6)Mustafa Suleyman (5)Aaron Levie (5)Yann LeCun (3)Tom Eggemeier (3)Stephen Morris (3)Peter Diamandis (3)Noland Arbaugh (3)Matthew Prince (3)Geoffrey Hinton (3)
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The record (7) every resolved claim →
Roy predicts Robinhood will introduce weather futures contracts for retail trading
“Like, I think there are certain things like weather futures, which I think Robinhood is going to introduce.”
Roy: OpenAI Must Launch Ads Ahead of Any IPO
“They're just laying this groundwork and infrastructure for just lots of ads, and I actually think they're gonna have to release this ahead of any kind of IPO because, you know, online advertising, especially whatever that next wave of AI platform advertising i…”
Roy: Proposed $14B TikTok US buyout will not go through
“I don't think it's going to happen. Fourteen billion versus forty billion. And we don't actually have confirmation from Xi Jinping or from any one on the Chinese side.”
Roy: OpenAI will hit 1B users in 2026 but lose clear leadership
“I think a billion users. I don't think I think they're not the leader. I think Gemini's Google definitely starts to catch up. I think like everyone is biting off at different parts of the open AI. Empire, I guess if we call it that, but I don't think there's a…”