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Jun 4, 2022 · 32m · big-technology

Wait, The Robots Didn't Take Our Jobs? — With Erik Brynjolfsson

Erik Brynjolfsson · 23m spoken Alex Kantrowitz · 6m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this interview recorded at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Big Technology Podcast host Alex Kantrowitz speaks with Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson about why AI has not caused mass unemployment, exploring the task restructuring of labor, the economic trap of pure automation, and the ethical necessity of augmenting human capability.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 22.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Alex as informed peer 4.5 Guest teaching 4.3 Guest disagreement 1.2 Alex pushing back 1.5
05100:0010:0020:0030:001:43–5:13 · Alex as informed peer 3/10 Academic Roots and Early Machine Learning Insights Alex prompts Erik on his personal background bridging AI and economics. The atmosphere is warm, collaborative, and conversational as Erik shares his academic journey.5:13–10:36 · Alex as informed peer 4/10 Job Automation vs. The Great Restructuring Alex asks how full employment squares with AI automation fears. Erik clarifies and educates, citing his Science study analyzing 18,000 tasks to show AI automates tasks rather than entire occupations.10:36–18:25 · Alex as informed peer 5/10 The Turing Trap and Economic Inequality Alex brings up tax software and accounting examples, prompting Erik to explain the Turing Trap. Erik unpacks how policy and technology design favor labor substitution over human augmentation.18:25–24:28 · Alex as informed peer 6/10 Reimagining Work and Ethical Technology Design Alex brings specific reporting on Amazon's internal automation and pushes on algorithmic surveillance of warehouse workers. Erik builds on this to advocate for thoughtful system redesign rather than shallow automation.24:28–28:54 · Alex as informed peer 5/10 Robotic Process Automation and Higher Human Purpose Alex questions why Robotic Process Automation stumbled and asks broad philosophical questions about work. Erik clarifies what RPA really does and discusses higher-order human needs via Maslow's hierarchy.28:54–31:47 · Alex as informed peer 4/10 Davos Leadership Perspectives and the Path Forward Alex asks whether Davos attendees actually care about augmentation or are just seeking cost-cutting automation during downturns. Erik counters the cynical narrative by highlighting leaders pursuing mission-driven projects.1:43–5:13 · Guest teaching 2/10 Academic Roots and Early Machine Learning Insights Alex prompts Erik on his personal background bridging AI and economics. The atmosphere is warm, collaborative, and conversational as Erik shares his academic journey.5:13–10:36 · Guest teaching 6/10 Job Automation vs. The Great Restructuring Alex asks how full employment squares with AI automation fears. Erik clarifies and educates, citing his Science study analyzing 18,000 tasks to show AI automates tasks rather than entire occupations.10:36–18:25 · Guest teaching 6/10 The Turing Trap and Economic Inequality Alex brings up tax software and accounting examples, prompting Erik to explain the Turing Trap. Erik unpacks how policy and technology design favor labor substitution over human augmentation.18:25–24:28 · Guest teaching 4/10 Reimagining Work and Ethical Technology Design Alex brings specific reporting on Amazon's internal automation and pushes on algorithmic surveillance of warehouse workers. Erik builds on this to advocate for thoughtful system redesign rather than shallow automation.24:28–28:54 · Guest teaching 5/10 Robotic Process Automation and Higher Human Purpose Alex questions why Robotic Process Automation stumbled and asks broad philosophical questions about work. Erik clarifies what RPA really does and discusses higher-order human needs via Maslow's hierarchy.28:54–31:47 · Guest teaching 3/10 Davos Leadership Perspectives and the Path Forward Alex asks whether Davos attendees actually care about augmentation or are just seeking cost-cutting automation during downturns. Erik counters the cynical narrative by highlighting leaders pursuing mission-driven projects.1:43–5:13 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Academic Roots and Early Machine Learning Insights Alex prompts Erik on his personal background bridging AI and economics. The atmosphere is warm, collaborative, and conversational as Erik shares his academic journey.5:13–10:36 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Job Automation vs. The Great Restructuring Alex asks how full employment squares with AI automation fears. Erik clarifies and educates, citing his Science study analyzing 18,000 tasks to show AI automates tasks rather than entire occupations.10:36–18:25 · Guest disagreement 1/10 The Turing Trap and Economic Inequality Alex brings up tax software and accounting examples, prompting Erik to explain the Turing Trap. Erik unpacks how policy and technology design favor labor substitution over human augmentation.18:25–24:28 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Reimagining Work and Ethical Technology Design Alex brings specific reporting on Amazon's internal automation and pushes on algorithmic surveillance of warehouse workers. Erik builds on this to advocate for thoughtful system redesign rather than shallow automation.24:28–28:54 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Robotic Process Automation and Higher Human Purpose Alex questions why Robotic Process Automation stumbled and asks broad philosophical questions about work. Erik clarifies what RPA really does and discusses higher-order human needs via Maslow's hierarchy.28:54–31:47 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Davos Leadership Perspectives and the Path Forward Alex asks whether Davos attendees actually care about augmentation or are just seeking cost-cutting automation during downturns. Erik counters the cynical narrative by highlighting leaders pursuing mission-driven projects.1:43–5:13 · Alex pushing back 0/10 Academic Roots and Early Machine Learning Insights Alex prompts Erik on his personal background bridging AI and economics. The atmosphere is warm, collaborative, and conversational as Erik shares his academic journey.5:13–10:36 · Alex pushing back 2/10 Job Automation vs. The Great Restructuring Alex asks how full employment squares with AI automation fears. Erik clarifies and educates, citing his Science study analyzing 18,000 tasks to show AI automates tasks rather than entire occupations.10:36–18:25 · Alex pushing back 1/10 The Turing Trap and Economic Inequality Alex brings up tax software and accounting examples, prompting Erik to explain the Turing Trap. Erik unpacks how policy and technology design favor labor substitution over human augmentation.18:25–24:28 · Alex pushing back 3/10 Reimagining Work and Ethical Technology Design Alex brings specific reporting on Amazon's internal automation and pushes on algorithmic surveillance of warehouse workers. Erik builds on this to advocate for thoughtful system redesign rather than shallow automation.24:28–28:54 · Alex pushing back 1/10 Robotic Process Automation and Higher Human Purpose Alex questions why Robotic Process Automation stumbled and asks broad philosophical questions about work. Erik clarifies what RPA really does and discusses higher-order human needs via Maslow's hierarchy.28:54–31:47 · Alex pushing back 2/10 Davos Leadership Perspectives and the Path Forward Alex asks whether Davos attendees actually care about augmentation or are just seeking cost-cutting automation during downturns. Erik counters the cynical narrative by highlighting leaders pursuing mission-driven projects.

speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Alex 60.4% · guest 39.6%0:00 · Alex 60.4% · guest 39.6%3:00 · Alex 26.2% · guest 73.8%3:00 · Alex 26.2% · guest 73.8%6:00 · Alex 0% · guest 100%6:00 · Alex 0% · guest 100%9:00 · Alex 25.6% · guest 74.4%9:00 · Alex 25.6% · guest 74.4%12:00 · Alex 10.5% · guest 89.5%12:00 · Alex 10.5% · guest 89.5%15:00 · Alex 0% · guest 100%15:00 · Alex 0% · guest 100%18:00 · Alex 42.6% · guest 57.4%18:00 · Alex 42.6% · guest 57.4%21:00 · Alex 12.9% · guest 87.1%21:00 · Alex 12.9% · guest 87.1%24:00 · Alex 33.1% · guest 66.9%24:00 · Alex 33.1% · guest 66.9%27:00 · Alex 17.5% · guest 82.5%27:00 · Alex 17.5% · guest 82.5%30:00 · Alex 24.9% · guest 75.1%30:00 · Alex 24.9% · guest 75.1%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 29:24 Pushing back on Davos cynicism

Erik directly rejects the common assumption that Davos attendees are purely self-serving plutocrats, arguing many are genuinely mission-driven.

 Hardest push from Alex ▶ 22:19 Challenging optimistic framing with automated management

Alex challenges the optimistic view of workplace automation by citing Amazon shareholder proposals concerning workers managed and fired by tracking algorithms.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 6:15 Explaining task-level vs job-level automation

Erik educates Alex on labor economics by detailing his Science research covering 18,000 tasks to show why AI automates specific duties rather than entire professions.

 Alex holds their own ▶ 18:45 Citing Amazon executive reporting

Alex demonstrates direct industry expertise from his reporting, explaining how Dilip Kumar automated pricing tasks before creating Amazon Go.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicAlex as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementAlex pushing backWhy
Academic Roots and Early Machine Learning Insights 3200 Alex prompts Erik on his personal background bridging AI and economics. The atmosphere is warm, collaborative, and conversational as Erik shares his academic journey.
Job Automation vs. The Great Restructuring 4622 Alex asks how full employment squares with AI automation fears. Erik clarifies and educates, citing his Science study analyzing 18,000 tasks to show AI automates tasks rather than entire occupations.
The Turing Trap and Economic Inequality 5611 Alex brings up tax software and accounting examples, prompting Erik to explain the Turing Trap. Erik unpacks how policy and technology design favor labor substitution over human augmentation.
Reimagining Work and Ethical Technology Design 6413 Alex brings specific reporting on Amazon's internal automation and pushes on algorithmic surveillance of warehouse workers. Erik builds on this to advocate for thoughtful system redesign rather than shallow automation.
Robotic Process Automation and Higher Human Purpose 5511 Alex questions why Robotic Process Automation stumbled and asks broad philosophical questions about work. Erik clarifies what RPA really does and discusses higher-order human needs via Maslow's hierarchy.
Davos Leadership Perspectives and the Path Forward 4322 Alex asks whether Davos attendees actually care about augmentation or are just seeking cost-cutting automation during downturns. Erik counters the cynical narrative by highlighting leaders pursuing mission-driven projects.

Statements from this episode (9)

Assertion Supported
AI Cannot Fully Automate Any Single US Occupation, Study Finds
“What we found was that in most jobs, there were some tasks that machine learning could do better than humans, or would be able to if you applied the technology, and there's kind of a gold rush now to do that. But in not a single occupation, we looked at all of…”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 7:15
Assertion Supported
AI Can Augment or Replace at Least $1 Trillion of Economic Work
“If you look at the subset of tasks where machine learning can Help or take over for humans or augment humans. It adds up to about a trillion dollars worth of work if you were most conservative.”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 8:28
Insight
AI Depresses Middle-Skill Wages Rather Than Creating Mass Unemployment
“It's taking certain tasks. It's not leading to mass unemployment, but it is shifting the demand for different types of skills, and so there are places where there's less demand and there's more demand, and wages in some areas are depressed when a machine can d…”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 9:35
Assertion Supported
Technology Is the Primary Driver of US Wage Structure Shifts
“Of the three, most economists would say that technology's the single biggest one. Larry Katz, who runs the quarterly Journal of Economics and who's, you know, leading labor economist, looked at many of these issues says that it's not even close.”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 12:04
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Brynjolfsson: Next Tech Wave Will Disproportionately Hit Lower-Skill Jobs
“Our analysis that we did in a follow-up paper with Daniel Rock of Wharton suggests that as with the previous wave, the next wave of technology also will disproportionately affect some of the lower and middle skill jobs compared to the higher skill jobs”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 13:03
Opinion
Society Over-Incentivizes Labor Automation Over Human Augmentation
“In the Turing Trap article, I argue that, as I said earlier, while both of those strategies can in principle be profitable, right now there are excess incentives to focus on substitution and automation, and then not enough to focus on complementing humans.”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 16:34
What-if
Amazon Would Not Be a $2 Trillion Company by Merely Automating Cashiers
“If he had been uncreative, he would have walked into a bookstore and said, you know, that cashier, we could automate the cashier. We could put a robot where the cashier is and check people out with a robot cashier. And you know, maybe that would have led to a …”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 20:45
Opinion
Robotic Process Automation Was Overhyped Because It Merely Automates Existing Tasks
“I think that RPA was a bit overhyped, and so there's a bit of a bubble. There's definitely some value there, but in the end, it's what I said earlier. It's kind of focusing on taking what people are already doing, and automating that often they'll literally, l…”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 25:33
Opinion
Davos Attendees Genuinely Want to Improve the World, Not Just Hoard Wealth
“I think a big misconception about Davos is is, you know, there's all, The plutocrats and all the wealth and power that's here. But the people who come here they really do seem sincerely interested in changing the world to make it better.”
Erik Brynjolfsson Jun 4, 2022 ▶ 29:26
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