The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 63 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 63 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will scale massively over the next decade
“These human robots, like the general purpose robotics thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to …”
Balaji: Rate hikes will cause systemic failure across the US banking sector
“Powell is crashing the plane, and SVB and FRC and others were just positioned near the front of the plane. Okay. So like everybody's gonna die is my point.”
Balaji: Gold Seizure-Style Executive Order Will Be Attempted in US
“What I do think is I think that there is probably enough strength among grays and reds to prevent a complete repeat of executive order. Six one Oh two. I think it's going to be attempted.”
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before Trump's term ends in 2028
“We're going to return to the moon before end of President Trump's term. We're going to build a moon base so we can stay.”
Machado: Maduro's Fall Will Trigger Collapse of Cuban and Nicaraguan Regimes
“Once Maduro goes the regime in Cuba will follow. And also The Nicaraguan regime will fall. And for the first time in history, we will have the America's free of communism and dictatorship for the first time in history.”
Vought: The budget bill will drive 3% GDP growth and $4T output
“We believe it's in the neighborhood of four trillion dollars, three percent economic growth compared to 1.8% that CBO assumes.”
Israetel: Society will eliminate biological aging by the mid-to-late 2030s
“I think a lot of people aren't prepared for the mid to late 20 thirties, maybe even earlier, when the, when we just don't have old people anymore. We have people that are chronologically 57 years old, but biologically they look 22.”
Lomborg: Inaction on climate change will cost about 3-4% of GDP
“Climate change, if we don't do anything about it, will probably cost us, say, three, four percent of GDP”
Gallagher: US will go to war if China moves on Taiwan
“We will go to war with China if China makes a move against
Taiwan, not because one of our ships accidentally bumps into theirs.”
Balaji predicts a 'digital lockdown' featuring capital controls and crypto bans
“So, so what I think is coming in a phrase is is digital lockdown. Okay. Digital lockdown encapsulates essentially obviously bans on short selling, attempted bans on crypto, capital controls, probably wage controls, price controls, anti hoarding laws. They may …”
Findley: The US dollar will lose reserve currency status by 2050
“It's my opinion that it won't. You know, I think we've done a lot of damage to our economy”
Levie: Jevons paradox will create massive engineering demand across all industries
“And this is like classic Jevons paradox, which is we lowered the cost of engineering, which means that everybody wants to do more of it, and now finally people can. And so you're gonna see this huge surplus in, in demand For engineers across the economy in ind…”
Levie: AI progress will add 10 to 20 years to human lifespans
“This amazing progress that will totally add 10 or 15 or 20 years to people's lives over the next 50 years and absolutely kind of impact preventable, you know, diseases from people.”
Fully autonomous cyber defense systems will arrive in two to three years
“I think AI will advantage the offense in the near term, but everybody knows that and everybody's waiting to be able to, we're gonna have a total shift change in cybersecurity where you'll have AI agents on offense Being the cheapest way to create that autonomo…”
Nolan: Advanced nuclear reactor deployments will ramp significantly starting in 2030
“That, I think those, that timing is coming, you know, 20, 28 through 20 30. They're gonna first really start doing the, you know, single digit deployments, and then I think 2030 is where it really ramps.”
Scott: Global venture investments are on track to exceed $1T in 2026
“So the, these numbers are kind of apples to oranges, but I think they're, we're on track in 20, 26 to clear a trillion dollars of venture capital. Globally.”
Fry: Small Businesses Will Create Over 80% of Jobs Next Decade
“I believe that in the next decade, they'll rise to four out of five, five out of six jobs.”
Isaacman: Sending humans to Mars will be possible within years
“Within, within years, we'll be able to send humans to Mars. It's bringing them back.”
Mandia: Fully autonomous cyber defense systems will emerge within three years.
“Fast forward two or three years, Joe, you're going to see an autonomous defense crafted, trained by the world's best cyber offense, you know, the hyper attack platform.”
Liemandt: Alpha School will reduce global per-student education costs below $1,000
“And so, and that is our target goal. We're absolutely going to get there. It's not going to be tomorrow, but I, I'm in this for the next 20 years.”
Machado: Iran Operates Military Attack Drone Facility in Venezuela
“And the Iranian regime has production a facility that products drones military drones, attack drones in Venezuela. It's the only country in the region.”
Machado: Millions of Venezuelans will return immediately once Maduro falls
“Millions of Venezuelan will come back immediately as soon as Maduro comes.”
Hoffman: School testing will be 1-on-1 AI oral exams in 3 to 5 years
“A small number of years called three, five. How is assessment going to be done? It's going to be one-on-one oral interviews with AIs.”
Urban: Robot nannies and housekeepers will arrive in the 2020s
“Housekeepers, robot nannies and housekeepers will be in the twenties.”
Gallagher: Americans can easily buy dangerous pathogens like HIV online
“You right now, Joe, could go online and buy, you could buy, you could definitely buy AIDS, you could buy MERS, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. There's no tripwires in place for the purchase of this stuff,”
Andreessen: AIs will not get certified as doctors or lawyers anytime soon
“And my, the point in that essay is what Joe just said, which is like, it will be illegal to do that. Like, it's not going to happen because it's going to be illegal. Like AIs are not going to get certified as doctors and lawyers anytime soon. Like that, that I…”
Chambers predicts India will outgrow the world for the next decade
“You watch, ah, one economy that's gonna outgrow the rest of the world for the next decade, It'll be India. Wouldn't surprise me to see him grow in the nine to 11% range for a decade.”
Berdichevsky predicts most fossil fuel use will disappear by 2050
“I think by the middle of the century, I'm very, very confident that most fossil fuel fuel use will go away.”
Berdichevsky predicts battery costs will reach $50/kWh by 2030
“And so you can plot that out and you can see the costs. If technology improves trending to kind of 50 bucks a kilowatt hour, which would have been unthinkable to people, you know just a few years ago. I mean, a hundred seemed like a real stretch for everybody.…”
DeWitte: Oklo micro-reactors cost between $30M and $40M to build
“Oh, I mean you know, if you put the reactor inside of it, kind of depends a little bit on the exact sighting and how much work needs to go into it, but somewhere between 30 and forty million dollars.”
DeWitte: 15MW Oklo reactors can generate power below 4-5 cents/kWh
“It's a little more expensive, but if you move that to the 15 megawatt size range, then yeah, you can get the prices down to sort of below four, four or five cents kilowatt hour.”
Six-second voice clones will automate social engineering attacks against help desks
“You're gonna start seeing social engineering automated, where six seconds of Joe Lonsdale's voice is gonna be used to get a help desk to do something.”
Lonsdale: Texas Will Beat California to Flying Car Launch
“I think Texas will be first. I think California will eventually catch up.”
Mandia: Cybercrime and Espionage Will Shift from Human-Led to AI Agent-Led
“You're gonna have AI agents on offense, automating incredibly talented humans, you know, like literally that brain surgeon analogy. AI agents will be that, and you're gonna have swarms of agents that can communicate, and think, and instantiate normal, and lear…”
Levi: Streaming Services Will Let Users Generate Custom Movies
“Every studio, I firmly believe this, and this is gonna happen very quickly.
Every studio, you'll be able to go to their streaming service.
You'll be able to go to Disney, Disney Plus, and you'll be able to go to the Disney Plus Creators Corner, where you get t…”
Schmitt: FBI will deploy largest per-capita agent presence to St. Louis
“So in the FBI is going to have the largest per capita permanent infusion of permanent FBI agents in St. Louis, anywhere in the country.”
Sofman: Bedrock can retrofit heavy machines with autonomy in under four hours
“In a way that's totally reversible, it's non-invasive, and in less than four hours we can take a machine and upfit it to be, you know, to have the system on it.”
Cotton: American investors are buying global ports from Chinese operating companies
“Now President Trump's already getting some results, and a group of American investors are buying out those ports, not just in Panama, but around the world from that Hong Kong company, and I think he, he's committed to taking more action like that, reducing Chi…”
Tim Urban predicts humans will land on Mars around 2035
“I would, if I had to guess now, I'd say, you know, 20, 35, something around there.”
Lowery: Epirus system achieved 100 percent defeat rate in April Army trials
“We had zero targets that we did not take down. In other words, we were 100% effective on Every single scenario and every single target that they threw at us, we had an effect on”
Langone: Eli Lilly's Mounjaro will exceed $30B annually by 2030
“Well, I think that Mangiorno, probably by 2030, the pundits say,
Probably will be over thirty billion dollars a year, well over thirty billion.”
Langone: America faces a 110,000 doctor shortage in three specialties by 2030.
“Joe, in the year 2030. That's six years. Yep. America's gonna be short. 50,000 primary care physicians. 30,000 pediatricians and 30,000 OBGYN. Going to be short, a 110,000 doctors in just those specialties.”
Mintz: Fully autonomous vehicles are at least five years away
“I would say we're at least five years away.”
Pompeo: Saudi Arabia will likely join the Abraham Accords
“I think so. I'm praying that they all do.”
Scotti: Pharma Is 13% of Healthcare Revenue but 50% of Profits
“What do you think percentage wise revenue pharma is in revenue in healthcare? Most people would, you know, not realize it's about 13%, but profits in healthcare... It's half, exactly. It's 40, it's like 49, 50%, exactly.”
Aboyeji: Africa will hold the majority of the world's population by 2100
“Because by the end of the century, right, Africa is the majority of the world's population.”