The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2025
Machado: Iran Operates Military Attack Drone Facility in Venezuela
“And the Iranian regime has production a facility that products drones military drones, attack drones in Venezuela. It's the only country in the region.”
Maria Corina Machado Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 5:30 From Prosperity to Ruins: Venezuela’s Fight for Freedom · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2024
Gallagher: Americans can easily buy dangerous pathogens like HIV online
“You right now, Joe, could go online and buy, you could buy, you could definitely buy AIDS, you could buy MERS, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. There's no tripwires in place for the purchase of this stuff,”
Congressman Mike Gallagher Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 16:13 Ep 72: Illegal Chinese Bio Labs & Secret Police Inside America! Congressman Mike Gallagher · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2025
DeWitte: Oklo micro-reactors cost between $30M and $40M to build
“Oh, I mean you know, if you put the reactor inside of it, kind of depends a little bit on the exact sighting and how much work needs to go into it, but somewhere between 30 and forty million dollars.”
Jake DeWitt Apr 6, 2022 ▶ 11:33 Oklo's Amazing Small Reactor That Can Reuse Nuclear Waste · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Sofman: Bedrock can retrofit heavy machines with autonomy in under four hours
“In a way that's totally reversible, it's non-invasive, and in less than four hours we can take a machine and upfit it to be, you know, to have the system on it.”
Boris Sofman Jul 16, 2025 ▶ 28:06 How AI Robots Are Taking Over Construction · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Cotton: American investors are buying global ports from Chinese operating companies
“Now President Trump's already getting some results, and a group of American investors are buying out those ports, not just in Panama, but around the world from that Hong Kong company, and I think he, he's committed to taking more action like that, reducing Chi…”
Tom Cotton Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 16:28 Billionaire vs. U.S. Senator: Should TikTok Be Banned? · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Lowery: Epirus system achieved 100 percent defeat rate in April Army trials
“We had zero targets that we did not take down. In other words, we were 100% effective on Every single scenario and every single target that they threw at us, we had an effect on”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 16:56 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jan 2023
Scotti: Pharma Is 13% of Healthcare Revenue but 50% of Profits
“What do you think percentage wise revenue pharma is in revenue in healthcare? Most people would, you know, not realize it's about 13%, but profits in healthcare... It's half, exactly. It's 40, it's like 49, 50%, exactly.”
Kimmy Scotti Jan 26, 2023 ▶ 16:47 Kimmy Scotti: How to Spot (and Build) the Next Big Thing · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2026
Lonsdale: Over half of US home sales go through Qualia
“I think more than half of the house sales go through his platform, right?”
Joe Lonsdale Feb 17, 2026 ▶ 40:25 Top Tech Investors: This AI Wave Is 10X Bigger Than SaaS · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2100
Alperovitch: China is losing at least one million people annually
“They're already losing at least a million people a year, and that's only going to accelerate throughout the century.”
Dmitri Alperovitch Aug 22, 2024 ▶ 32:30 He Predicted Putin's Invasion. Now He Predicts When China Will Invade Taiwan. · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2024
Langone: Significant wage increases caused Home Depot's attrition rate to plunge
“Last year we initiated significant pay increases for the hourlies. Our attrition rate has plunged.”
Ken Langone Jul 3, 2024 ▶ 13:49 How Founder Ken Langone Turned Home Depot Into A $400 Billion Empire · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 1963
Jones smuggled MLK's Birmingham Jail drafts out under his shirt
“Twice a day in the morning, and in the afternoon, I would take what he had written, put it under my shirt, and then I would take the blank sheets of paper that he needed and give it to him, and then the following, that afternoon, or if it was the afternoon nex…”
Dr. Clarence Jones May 10, 2024 ▶ 16:06 A Conversation with MLK's Lawyer & Speechwriter: Dr. Clarence Jones · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Gebbia: Small modular reactors can reuse existing nuclear waste as fuel
“Small modular reactors which will address some of the issues of the costs involved in building nuclear plants, the timelines associated with building nuclear plants. Small modular actors can actually reuse existing nuclear waste as their energy source.”
Joe Gebbia Apr 12, 2023 ▶ 37:41 Ep 53: Joe Gebbia Changed the World with Airbnb. Here's What He's Building Next. · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Ghamsari: Blend processes roughly 20% of all US mortgages
“There's about four to five million mortgages happening this year, and Blend is about 20% of those. Maybe just under 20% of those.”
Nima Ghamsari Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 9:48 How AI Agents Are Creating an Infinitely Scalable Workforce · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2026
Boots: LiDAR emission makes vehicles easily detectable to equipped adversaries
“LiDAR, Projects projects into the environment. And so you can see it you know, very easily if you have the right sort of sensors.”
Byron Boots Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 10:17 The Man Behind the Military's Smartest Self-Driving Vehicles · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2024
Greenblatt: Google, Apollo, and J. Crew Joined ADL Workplace Pledge
“We created something called the Workplace Pledge Against Anti-Semitism. Google, WPP, Apollo, J. Crew, a bunch of gigantic companies and firms have joined that.”
Jonathan Greenblatt Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 32:21 Jonathan Greenblatt on Ta-Nehisi Coates, CRT, and woke politics · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2022
Apple had under one percent US market share when Fadell joined
“Yeah, it was much smaller, and it had a market share of one percent or less, only in the US. It didn't have retail stores, it only had the Mac. There was really nothing else that Apple had at that time.”
Tony Fadell May 20, 2022 ▶ 13:15 Legendary iPod & iPhone Creator Tony Fadell Shares His Design Secrets · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2022
Apple's iPod held 85 percent market share when phones added music
“We were at 85% market share at the time, and the market kept growing and growing and growing.”
Tony Fadell May 20, 2022 ▶ 21:29 Legendary iPod & iPhone Creator Tony Fadell Shares His Design Secrets · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Nov 2024
Raj Bhakta: M&A client bought Watkins-Johnson for $100M, IPO'd at $1B
“The guy buys the company for like a hundred million bucks and takes it public six months later for a billion.”
Raj Bhakta Nov 29, 2024 ▶ 17:32 Turning Whiskey Into Millions — The Hustler Behind WhistlePig · Joe Lonsdale
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