why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2025
Machado: Iran Operates Military Attack Drone Facility in Venezuela
“And the Iranian regime has production a facility that products drones military drones, attack drones in Venezuela. It's the only country in the region.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2024
Gallagher: Americans can easily buy dangerous pathogens like HIV online
“You right now, Joe, could go online and buy, you could buy, you could definitely buy AIDS, you could buy MERS, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. There's no tripwires in place for the purchase of this stuff,”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2025
DeWitte: Oklo micro-reactors cost between $30M and $40M to build
“Oh, I mean you know, if you put the reactor inside of it, kind of depends a little bit on the exact sighting and how much work needs to go into it, but somewhere between 30 and forty million dollars.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Sofman: Bedrock can retrofit heavy machines with autonomy in under four hours
“In a way that's totally reversible, it's non-invasive, and in less than four hours we can take a machine and upfit it to be, you know, to have the system on it.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Cotton: American investors are buying global ports from Chinese operating companies
“Now President Trump's already getting some results, and a group of American investors are buying out those ports, not just in Panama, but around the world from that Hong Kong company, and I think he, he's committed to taking more action like that, reducing Chi…”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Lowery: Epirus system achieved 100 percent defeat rate in April Army trials
“We had zero targets that we did not take down. In other words, we were 100% effective on Every single scenario and every single target that they threw at us, we had an effect on”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jan 2023
Scotti: Pharma Is 13% of Healthcare Revenue but 50% of Profits
“What do you think percentage wise revenue pharma is in revenue in healthcare? Most people would, you know, not realize it's about 13%, but profits in healthcare... It's half, exactly. It's 40, it's like 49, 50%, exactly.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2026
Lonsdale: Over half of US home sales go through Qualia
“I think more than half of the house sales go through his platform, right?”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2100
Alperovitch: China is losing at least one million people annually
“They're already losing at least a million people a year, and that's only going to accelerate throughout the century.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2024
Langone: Significant wage increases caused Home Depot's attrition rate to plunge
“Last year we initiated significant pay increases for the hourlies. Our attrition rate has plunged.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 1963
Jones smuggled MLK's Birmingham Jail drafts out under his shirt
“Twice a day in the morning, and in the afternoon, I would take what he had written, put it under my shirt, and then I would take the blank sheets of paper that he needed and give it to him, and then the following, that afternoon, or if it was the afternoon nex…”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Gebbia: Small modular reactors can reuse existing nuclear waste as fuel
“Small modular reactors which will address some of the issues of the costs involved in building nuclear plants, the timelines associated with building nuclear plants. Small modular actors can actually reuse existing nuclear waste as their energy source.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Ghamsari: Blend processes roughly 20% of all US mortgages
“There's about four to five million mortgages happening this year, and Blend is about 20% of those. Maybe just under 20% of those.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2026
Boots: LiDAR emission makes vehicles easily detectable to equipped adversaries
“LiDAR, Projects projects into the environment. And so you can see it you know, very easily if you have the right sort of sensors.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2024
Greenblatt: Google, Apollo, and J. Crew Joined ADL Workplace Pledge
“We created something called the Workplace Pledge Against Anti-Semitism. Google, WPP, Apollo, J. Crew, a bunch of gigantic companies and firms have joined that.”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2022
Apple had under one percent US market share when Fadell joined
“Yeah, it was much smaller, and it had a market share of one percent or less, only in the US. It didn't have retail stores, it only had the Mac. There was really nothing else that Apple had at that time.”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2022
Apple's iPod held 85 percent market share when phones added music
“We were at 85% market share at the time, and the market kept growing and growing and growing.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Nov 2024
Raj Bhakta: M&A client bought Watkins-Johnson for $100M, IPO'd at $1B
“The guy buys the company for like a hundred million bucks and takes it public six months later for a billion.”