The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji predicts US will divide into Bitcoin states and dollar states
“And I actually think this becomes a very important dividing line and political issue where it's essentially the Bitcoin states where you know, people are allowed to hold Bitcoin in private hands and the dollar states where they're not. Basically meaning you li…”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 30:25 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
Disclosure
Balaji Srinivasan prefers holding Bitcoin and foreign fiat over US dollars
“TLDR is, at least I personally prefer to hold Bitcoin and stable foreign fiat over USD.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 56:08 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Held up
Balaji Srinivasan: Bitcoin will be 10x PayPal and may be 10x gold
“I think Bitcoin will in the fullness of time, it's certainly 10 X, it will be 10 X PayPal. It may be 10 X gold.”
Balaji Sr i n i v a s a n Aug 11, 2021 ▶ 16:43 Balaji Srinivasan: Bitcoin, China, the "Woke" Mob, and the Future of the Internet · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Mandia: Uniformed North Korean government agents run cyberattacks to steal Bitcoin.
“Literally government agents in North Korea in uniform are hacking to steal Bitcoin.”
Kevin Mandia Feb 4, 2026 ▶ 17:59 AI Expert: Agents Will Take Over Everything · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Held up
Srinivasan: Europe, Asia, and Latin America will keep Bitcoin legal
“That means that Europe, the Middle East, big parts of Latin America, big parts of Asia, it will be at a minimum legal to buy, sell, send, and receive Bitcoin.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 25:40 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
Insight
Balaji: Building basic Bitcoin exchange infrastructure is trivial in 2023
“It's trivial to set up a buy, sell, send, receive Bitcoin thing in 20, 23. You can do that. Like I shouldn't say one engineer, but a few engineers.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 29:26 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
Insight
Ferguson: Crypto and DeFi are modern versions of historical stateless money
“So in some ways, I think of Bitcoin particularly, but crypto and decentralized finance generally as a new tech-enabled version of that stateless monetary system that evolved to finance trade.”
Niall Ferguson Aug 18, 2021 ▶ 16:11 Niall Ferguson: Why Great Civilizations Rise and Fall · Joe Lonsdale
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