Assertion certainty 3/5 debate potential 2/5

McGrew: OpenAI's 2017 thesis was that neural networks could reach AGI

Bob McGrew · Ep 66: Bob McGrew — the Superstar Palantir Alum Leading OpenAI's Transformative Research Projects · Joe Lonsdale · Aug 18, 2023 · at 9:17

Bob McGrew, VP of Research at OpenAI, discusses the founding technical hypothesis of OpenAI when he joined in 2017.

0:00 / 0:11exact quote · 11.0s
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“So I think that the thesis behind open AI when I joined in 2017 was that neural networks were the final architecture that could take AI all the way to human level intelligence or AGI.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

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Insight
McGrew: There is no limit to neural network capability with enough compute and data
“If you could figure out how to pour enough compute and pour enough data into a neural network, there's really no limit to how, how good it could get.”
Bob McGrew Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 18:46 Ep 66: Bob McGrew — the Superstar Palantir Alum Leading OpenAI's Transformative Research Projects · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Not checkable as stated
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“Ah, we think it's actually getting better over time that, you know, some of the reports are sort of confounding various different things.”
Bob McGrew Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 25:02 Ep 66: Bob McGrew — the Superstar Palantir Alum Leading OpenAI's Transformative Research Projects · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McGrew: AI scaling will keep working without hitting an asymptote
“The way I think about it is that we are still pretty far away from the level of scale that is the human brain. And so there's no reason for there to be an asymptote. I think it just keeps working.”
Bob McGrew Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 25:43 Ep 66: Bob McGrew — the Superstar Palantir Alum Leading OpenAI's Transformative Research Projects · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Not checkable as stated
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“When you push this to the level where AI is at the human level, I mean, they're basically going to be creating their own civilization.”
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Prediction Not checkable as stated
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“I'm always a little worried about the infrastructure work, because I think, you know, you're solving the problems as they exist today, and when GPD 4.5 and GPD five come out, you know, they're gonna have fundamentally different use cases and fundamentally diff…”
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Opinion
McGrew: We understand neural networks much better than the human brain
“I, at this point, I think we understand neural networks a lot better than we understand the brain. So whenever someone talks to me about the brain, I always think, well, what does a neural network do? And then probably actually the brain does that.”
Bob McGrew Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 11:36 Ep 66: Bob McGrew — the Superstar Palantir Alum Leading OpenAI's Transformative Research Projects · Joe Lonsdale
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