Mar 24, 2022 · 45m · american-optimist
Free Housing Won't Solve the Homeless Crisis. Here's What Will. · Joe Lonsdale
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In this episode of American Optimist, host Joe Lonsdale and policy expert Judge Glock analyze the structural failures driving America's urban housing and homelessness crises. They advocate replacing counterproductive federal 'Housing First' mandates with enforced public camping bans, outcome-based funding, specialized Mental Health Courts, and pro-growth housing deregulation.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Joe holds 28.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Joe as informed peer 5.4 Guest teaching 4.1 Guest disagreement 0.0 Joe pushing back 0.6
speaking balance: gold is Joe, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 30:53 Glock recounts hostile legislative pushback against common-sense reforms
Judge describes getting 'bloodied on the nose' and falsely branded as hateful and racist by activist groups when testifying against unconditional housing subsidies.
Hardest push from Joe ▶ 34:09 Lonsdale challenges state preemption of city homelessness policyJoe calls out the irony in demanding state-level intervention against rogue cities immediately after arguing for decentralized municipal autonomy.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 4:12 Glock educates on Serrano v. Priest's unintended consequencesJudge explains the obscure legal mechanics of the 1976 California Supreme Court case that stripped municipalities of their tax-base incentives to permit new development.
Joe holds their own ▶ 35:38 Lonsdale applies venture capital KPI frameworks to municipal spendingJoe demonstrates deep operational expertise by proposing outcome-based venture contracting to replace input-focused government homelessness funding.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Joe as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Joe pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Background on Judge Glock and the Cicero Institute | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | Joe establishes his familiarity with California housing incentives and introduces Prop 13. Judge elaborates with legal history on Serrano v. Priest, explaining how school funding equalization eliminated local development incentives. | |
| Environmental Regulations and the YIMBY vs. NIMBY Movement | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | Joe notes environmental abuse via CEQA and the left-leaning YIMBY push to abolish single-family zoning. Judge clarifies that California cities are already unusually dense compared to cheap Midwestern cities, pointing to greenfield sprawl as ecologically and economically viable. | |
| Decentralized Municipal Competition and Cicero's Housing Policy Framework | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Joe and Judge discuss municipal competition, the Tiebout hypothesis, and how decentralized local governments compete to keep taxes low and services high while previewing Cicero's state-level policy proposals. | |
| Unintended Consequences of Decriminalizing Street Camping | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Joe shares his personal observations in Austin following the repeal of the camping ban. Judge provides statistical data showing that street camping increased 50% while shelter occupancy dropped by 20%. | |
| Enforcing Public Camping Bans and Pushing Individuals Into Treatment | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | Joe poses the skeptical counterargument that camping bans simply push homeless people out of sight. Judge refutes this with data from LAPD's Safer Cities Initiative, showing a 40% reduction in crime and street victimization. | |
| Documentary Spotlight: Tom Wolf's Journey from Addiction to Recovery | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Following Tom Wolf's clip, Joe critiques the Housing First model using firsthand accounts from Cicero field tests. Judge explains the historical origins of Housing First in 1990s New York and its failure to address root causes like addiction. | |
| The Homeless Industrial Complex and Inflated Development Costs | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Joe introduces the concept of the homeless-industrial complex. Judge cites Willie Brown's 'sacred cartel' label and municipal audits in LA and SF showing subsidized units costing up to $800,000 per room due to 40% soft costs. | |
| Public Consensus vs. Ideological Pushback in Homelessness Policy | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | Judge details polling showing 70-80% bipartisan opposition to unconditional free housing. Joe pushes back on state intervention preempting cities, pointing out the philosophical irony given their earlier defense of local governance. | |
| Structural Alternatives: Pay-for-Performance and Mental Health Courts | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Joe compares government contract accountability to venture KPIs. Judge elaborates on pay-for-performance contracts and the Miami-Dade mental health court model as practical, outcome-driven alternatives. | |
| Independent Nonprofits and the Polluting Impact of Federal Mandates | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Judge highlights successful private initiatives like Community First! Village and Salvation Army, explaining how federal funding mandates distort and prohibit effective accountability measures. | |
| National Implications of the Crisis and Show Conclusion | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Joe asks why nationwide citizens outside California should care. Judge explains urban agglomeration economies and human costs, concluding with a PragerU documentary trailer. |
Statements from this episode (28)
Glock: Low Housing Costs Drove California's Mid-Century Boom Over New York
“California was the fastest growing state in the nation for decades and surpassed New York as the single largest state in the country in around 1960. And it was a very welcoming environment for builders. The, one of the main reasons people moved over there is b…”
Glock: Prop 13 Failed 2-to-1 in 1972 Before Passing 2-to-1 in 1978
“Originally Prop. 13 the goal was proposed by Howard Jarvis and others with the goal of limiting property taxes, and it failed in 1972 by about a two-to-one vote. Overwhelming rejection of Prop. 13. People of course had problems with local property taxes, but t…”
Glock: Serrano v. Priest Destroyed Local California Incentives to Build Housing
“Serrano v. Priest upset the entire the sort of shape of local funding in California. If you were building new sort of housing and developments in your area, or if merely you were increasing the property tax funding in your local schools, you got the benefit. E…”
Glock: CA Supreme Court blocked UC Berkeley student enrollment increases under CEQA
“The Berkeley ruling of the California Supreme court where they said you couldn't increase even the number of students at the university of Berkeley. Because of this California lawsuit system where you're allowed to sue just about anything.”
Glock: YIMBYs' main enemy is single-family suburbs and zoning
“But this YIMBY group is very, very focused on what we need to do is densify California cities. Their main enemy is single family suburbs and single family zoning.”
Glock: California Cities Are Exceptionally Dense Yet Suffer Far Higher Housing Prices
“California has
Actually, exceptionally dense cities.
They have cities about 7008 thousand people per square mile, which is very high relative to the rest of the U.S., which is more like three to 4000 people per square mile.
and yet it has housing prices that …”
Glock: 40% of Land in Nine-County Bay Area Is Reserved for Cattle
“The 40% of that land in that nine county Bay Area is reserved for cattle.”
Glock: Densification Is Not the Only Solution to Housing Affordability
“The only area where I disagree with sort of the Yimby's and where I think the evidence doesn't bear them out is the idea that, well, densification is the only real solution to the housing affordability crisis. And we shouldn't pay more attention to what's call…”
Glock: Tall Buildings Produce More Carbon Emissions Than Shorter Wooden Ones
“In fact, tall buildings tend to have more CO₂ emissions than short ones. They have to use concrete and steel. That requires a lot more energy intensive use than using wood, which is a carbon sink.”
Glock: US municipal governments raise 20% of all government revenue
“We have about 20,000 municipal governments in, in America, and they raise about 20% of all government revenue.”
Glock: Municipal competition lowers taxes and raises public service quality
“There's something called the Tebow hypothesis. The idea that People in local governments where they have options, quote, vote with their feet. If you have 15 different municipal government scenario, well, maybe you're a park person, or maybe you're a school pe…”
Lonsdale: UATX is planned east of Austin for easier building regulations
“You know, for the University of Austin, we're planning on doing it probably just east of the county that has Austin in it, because The county to the east is like slightly more permissible, easier to build, easier to work with is our guess.”
Glock: Austin saw 40-50% unsheltered homeless spike after camping ban repeal
“What you saw in Austin was in 2019, the city council turned back a previous ban on street camping. They repealed the law that said it was illegal to camp and sleep on the streets. And what you saw was pretty surprising and pretty rapid. You had, About a 40 to …”
Glock: Sheltered homelessness dropped 20% after Austin repealed camping ban
“One of the surprising things we saw there, and we've seen this elsewhere, Is the amount of sheltered homelessness went down by about 20%.”
Glock: Skid Row camping enforcement cut crime and violence by 40%
“A study done right afterwards showed that crime and violence in the area, mainly against the homeless themselves, went down 40%, and it didn't seem to spill over to these other neighborhoods.”
Lonsdale: 75% of homeless have mental health and drug conditions
“The studies show 75% of them have some kind of mental health condition, and 75% have some kind of drug condition, so usually there's a lot of overlap there.”
Glock: Leaving mentally ill people on the street is not compassionate
“Allowing a mentally ill individual to slowly kill themselves in the street is, In no way, shape, or form can be portrayed as compassionate. It's not.”
Tom Wolf: Housing the homeless without treatment leaves addiction and mental illness unresolved
“You can build all the housing and get everybody off the street housed, but if you're struggling with addiction or mental illness, you're just housed with drug addiction and mental illness.”
Glock: Cities building homes for every unsheltered person saw homelessness increase
“And yeah, San Francisco, Arizona, these other states and cities, they built enough homes for every single unsheltered homeless person in the street. 1015 years later, they have more homeless people in the streets.”
Glock: National Academy of Sciences found Housing First fails to improve health
“You know, as I often cite, the National Academy of Science said, there's no evidence that these housing first units improve the health of the homeless.”
Glock: LA and SF audits show subsidized housing costs reach $800K per unit
“They recently did an audit in LA and in San Francisco that found these things cost about 700 dollars per square foot and around 800,000 dollars maxed out per apartment.”
Glock: Roughly 40% of subsidized housing spending goes to soft costs
“About 40% of this money went to what's called soft costs in the construction industry. This is the paperwork, the financing, all these other little things in it.”
Judge Glock: Camping bans overwhelmingly passed in liberal cities like Austin and Denver
“When cities like Austin or San Francisco or Denver voted on, say, camping bans, overwhelmingly passed in some of these most liberal cities in America.”
Glock: 70% to 80% of Americans oppose unconditional free housing without sobriety mandates
“When you tell average Americans about this, we do the polls, do you think, ah, you know, basically free homes should be given out with no sobriety or mental health treatments to people on the street? Overwhelming. 70, 80% of people say, of course not. Again, a…”
Glock: Housing First's 80% retention rate is a miserable policy failure
“A lot of the housing first groups tout that, hey, you know, 80% of people stay in these units over two years, and to my mind, that seems like a disaster. If I give someone a free apartment and 20% leave for the streets after two years, I have failed miserably.”
Glock: Miami-Dade mental health court is a leading national model
“The Miami-Dade mental health court is one of the sort of pillars of the nation where they follow up people, make sure you're taking your pills, make sure you're taking treatment.”
Glock: Federal Funds Distort Nonprofit Homeless Programs With Restrictive Rules
“That federal money, it's polluting a lot of the nonprofit things. You have people like that that Indian group I talked about in Arizona that maybe want to be a little stricter, but the federal money is that even if it doesn't pay for all of it pays for just a …”