Mar 31, 2022 · 33m · american-optimist
Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
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Former Secretary of Defense Dr. Mark Esper joins host Joe Lonsdale to discuss critical national security challenges, analyzing Russian military failures in Ukraine, global terrorism, Iranian nuclear ambitions, and necessary defense procurement reforms to foster technological innovation.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Joe holds 34.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Joe as informed peer 4.7 Guest teaching 2.1 Guest disagreement 0.2 Joe pushing back 0.3
speaking balance: gold is Joe, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 23:37 Esper resists host's attribution of corrupt intent to bureaucrats
Esper rejects Joe's insinuation that senior bureaucrats intentionally favor prime contractors to protect post-government jobs, arguing instead that institutional risk aversion is the true cause.
Hardest push from Joe ▶ 8:32 Joe presses on NATO enforcement mechanismsJoe challenges Esper's explanation of alliance diplomacy, bluntly questioning whether enforcing the 2% spending requirement relies strictly on honor without practical enforcement tools.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 13:15 Esper clarifies legal boundaries of land warfareEsper corrects Joe's pragmatic suggestion that captured enemy combatants should simply be eliminated rather than released, explaining that US forces operate strictly within the Law of Land Warfare.
Joe holds their own ▶ 22:02 Joe details specific Air Force procurement failureJoe demonstrates deep domain and industry familiarity by citing a specific Air Force EMP RFP requiring outdated vacuum tube technology, showing firsthand knowledge from discussions with military leadership.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Joe as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Joe pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Title Sequence: Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Joe introduces Dr. Esper and prompts him on Russian military underperformance in Ukraine. Esper details strategic and tactical failures of the Russian armed forces. | |
| Corruption and Oligarchic Influence in Russian Defense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Joe asks about Russian defense corruption, cheap parts, and Soviet-era doctrine. Esper confirms the corruption hypothesis and notes Russia's reversion to indiscriminate siege tactics. | |
| The Role of Drones and Asymmetric Warfare | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Joe cites his conversations with the Israeli Defense Minister regarding active missile defense systems on tanks. Esper analyzes Ukraine's effective use of small unit drone and anti-armor tactics. | |
| NATO Defense Spending and German Policy Reversal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Joe presses on how the US can realistically enforce the 2% NATO defense spending target. Esper explains diplomatic constraints and the risk that punitive measures could compromise broader deterrence. | |
| Strategic Implications for China and Taiwan | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Joe connects Western resolve in Ukraine to deterrence in Taiwan and raises past prison management issues in Iraq and Afghanistan. Esper highlights Indo-Pacific responses to the conflict. | |
| Challenges in Terrorist Detainee Management and Legal Restraints | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Joe questions why captured terrorists are released rather than eliminated. Esper explains the legal obligations governing the US military, specifically citing the Law of Land Warfare. | |
| Critique of Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Joe critiques ongoing Iran negotiations and discusses nuclear game theory regarding North Korea and Libya. Esper agrees that any agreement should require Senate approval. | |
| Department of Defense Procurement and Risk-Averse Culture | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Joe brings up venture-backed defense tech and his portfolio company Epirus. Esper discusses his efforts founding Army Futures Command to overcome Pentagon risk aversion. | |
| Attracting Technologists and Overcoming Bureaucratic Inertia | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Joe gives a specific example of an Air Force EMP RFP demanding outdated vacuum tube tech rather than modern digital systems. Esper agrees but gently pushes back against Joe's suspicion of corrupt intent among procurement officials. | |
| Use-It-or-Lose-It Budgeting and Direct Innovation Contracting | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Joe asks about use-it-or-lose-it budget incentives and advocates for autonomous submersibles over large surface ships. Esper outlines his proposal for direct innovation discretionary funding and a 500-ship fleet. | |
| Recruiting Technical Talent and Prioritizing Emerging Technologies | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Joe cites his venture firm's data showing top computer science and engineering grads avoiding Pentagon work. Esper emphasizes the need for increased R&D and critical supply chain reshoring. | |
| Previewing Dr. Mark Esper's Memoir, 'A Sacred Oath' | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Joe asks about Esper's memoir and frames the debate between American decline and international reliance on US leadership. Esper reflects on historical resilience and identifies political dysfunction as the primary national threat. |
Statements from this episode (31)
Esper: The Russian military is weaker than Western assessments anticipated
“Russia is not as good as we thought they were. We've seen failures in everything from their generalship to the lack of an NCO corps and to the performance of their soldiers. And of course, that extends into their equipment their shortages when it comes to supp…”
Esper: Ukrainian military effectiveness exceeds expectations due to Western support
“The second thing we learned is that the Ukrainians have a much better military than we expect. And I think a lot of that is due to the arms and training that we provided them over the last few years.”
Esper: Putin failed strategically by unifying NATO and driving Ukraine westward
“I said before the invasion actually began that Putin had already lost. He lost because he had done three things before invading that he shouldn't have wanted to do in the first place. That is, number one, unifying NATO. Number two, have more NATO troops move t…”
Esper: Corruption and Sycophancy Undermined Putin's Military Modernization
“I think that is a prevailing theory that despite whatever Putin was doing when it comes to modernizing his forces, there was a lot of corruption going on. A lot of people were telling him what he wanted to hear. And at the end of the day, you can see the perfo…”
Esper: Russian Military Has Reverted to Soviet-Era Tactics in Ukraine
“Well, I did think we thought we would see a difference, but it appears to be not unlike what we saw during Soviet times. So the heavy use of massed forces, a reliance on artillery if you will, barrage tactics to take down cities. But we thought that they would…”
Esper: Ukraine combines Turkish drones and Javelins for small unit tactics
“We've actually seen the Ukrainians more, use more of the drones primarily Turkish bought, purchased drones. So again, they're using it to great effect. That combined with the use of anti-armor weapons, the javelins and the N-laws, anti-aircraft weapons like th…”
Esper: Russia Failed to Scale Advanced Defense Technology Production
“Russia does have very capable engineers and technicians, but again, we just don't see that they've advanced the technology or expanded enough through production to really feel the force of that level of modernization.”
Esper: Putin Cannot Accept Defeat and Will Continue Shelling Ukrainian Cities
“Can Putin walk away with a loss? I don't think so. He's gonna have to find a face saving way out. I think folks are gonna try and help him do that. At this point, I think his tactics will continue to be the indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities.”
Esper: Only about six NATO allies met 2% defense goal in 2017
“By time I had assumed office in 2017 as Secretary of the Army, you'd see that maybe a half a dozen out of the 29 at that time NATO allies were meeting their two percent goal, and it was a goal set under the Obama administration, which I thought was a worthy th…”
Esper: As Defense Secretary, he sought to move US forces east
“What I was trying to do as secretary of defense was actually push more forces East up to toward the Russian border in the frontline states as we call them.”
Esper: Russia's economy is one-tenth the size of China's
“Because look, if we won't push it, put tough sanctions on Russia, which is, has one 10th the size of the economy of China, then we wouldn't do it to Beijing.”
Esper: Ukraine's defense offers a vital blueprint for Taiwan against China
“The third thing though, and I said this again publicly, it was important to see the Taiwan, for the Taiwanese to see what an inspired, well-led defense, a territorial defense of their country can do, in this case, Ukraine, because that will be very important i…”
Esper: U.S. should not have fully withdrawn from Afghanistan without Taliban compliance
“That's why I was opposed to a complete withdrawal of our force from Afghanistan up until the, until the Taliban met their end of the political agreement, and if they weren't, then we should have stayed and maintained a presence and supported the Afghan army.”
Esper: European allies are often reluctant to repatriate captured terrorist prisoners
“In other cases where we capture prisoners and we hold them, we try and press other countries, like our European partners, to take them back and hold them in more secure facilities. And there's often a reluctance to do so.”
Esper: 2015 Obama Iran Nuclear Deal Was Not a Good Deal
“Well, the original Obama deal was not a good deal. It wasn't long enough. It didn't have enough accountability. We gave away too much upfront, et cetera.”
Esper: Biden Administration's Iran Deal Will Be Worse Than the Original
“We gotta wait and see what the Biden team comes up with, and I'm afraid what you're saying is correct, that they didn't lengthen and strengthen it as they promised to be, and it'll be it'll be a worse deal.”
Esper: Delisting Iran's Revolutionary Guard as Terrorists Is a Mistake
“Yeah, again, I think that's a mistake as well. I would not take them off because they are sponsoring terrorism throughout the region.”
Lonsdale: Saudi Arabia and UAE will need nukes if Iran acquires them
“If Iran's gonna have weapons, Saudi probably is gonna need to have their weapon, too, and the whole thing, and the UAE's gonna need one, too.”
Esper: China Is Expanding and Modernizing Its Nuclear Arsenal
“Look, we now see China expanding and improving It's nuclear arsenal. That's another concern of ours that we didn't have for the last 30 years.”
Esper: Pentagon Innovation Struggles Are Driven by Culture, Not Tools
“And first and foremost, I think it's more, far more about the culture than it is about the tools available to DoD.”
Esper: Army Futures Command Was Placed in Austin to Escape Traditional Hubs
“One of the reasons why when we stood up Futures Command, we wanted to put it here in Austin, Texas, is we wanted to get it away from those traditional hubs.”
Esper: Excessive Checklists and Requirements In Defense Acquisition Hurt Innovation
“They've been conditioned over years to follow, for example, long checklists of things they must do. They like to build long lists of requirements that, that tell an innovator everything he or she must do to make it To make the technology the way it is. And I t…”
Esper: Pentagon Counter-Drone RFP Mandated Legacy Vacuum Tube Technology
“And not, not long ago, if memory serves me right you know, a requirement came out from somebody within DOD and it said with a drone counter drone technology, it had to be vacuum tube technology.”
Esper: Defense Procurement Should Specify Desired Outcomes, Not Technology Types
“We shouldn't tell them what type of technology. We should just say, what's the outcome we want? We want the ability to shoot down certain types of drones, fixed wing, rotary wing at certain distances, and that's it. Whether it's vacuum tube, Or digital technol…”
Esper: Pentagon innovation requires multi-million dollar bets and accepting frequent failure
“It can't be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. It needs to be in the millions, at least, because that's what you need to get going. And also be willing, again, to have a 20, 30, 40% success rate. It's not going to be a hundred percent. If it's a hundred …”
Lonsdale: Autonomous submarines will be most cost-efficient naval combat systems
“On the Navy side, it seems to me that, like, autonomous,
Submarines and things like that that are kind of echoing the drones we're seeing that actually work, like, are gonna be the, by far, the most cost-efficient way of fighting and moving things around.”
Esper: US Navy is behind on autonomous drone technology
“Yeah, you know, I think the Navy's behind.
we've been flying drones in the air now since the nineties.
we should be having surface drones, subsurface drones now.
There's, you know some conflict within the Navy about that, some moving too fast, too slow peopl…”
Esper: US needs a 500+ ship fleet with 100+ unmanned vessels
“What I argued for, what I put forward was a 500 plus fleet force with well over 100 optionally manned systems.
That's where we need to be.
That's gonna get us the capacity to control and monitor the seas, and then the capability as well to fight in the future.”
Lonsdale: Top engineering graduates are avoiding jobs at the Pentagon
“And right now, if you go to these top schools, I map this out for my firm, if you see, basically none of the top couple hundred people are looking for jobs in the Pentagon, which to me is very scary.”
Esper: Pandemic Exposed Defense Supply Chains Dependent on China, Prompting Reshoring
“We learned that our supply chain was stretched all the way back to China, that we couldn't get certain supplies. In other parts of the world, it was an unreliable supply chain, and we really started looking hard at what the impacts would be, and we're looking …”