Crivello: 2025 will be a serious inflection point for AI agents
“A year. I broadly buy the meme that 2025 is the year of agents. It's like a year-ish. I think those mean to be a pretty serious inflection point.”
Crivello: Bearish on consumer AI agents because consumers are time-rich and money-poor
“I am actually quite bearish for consumer agents. I think, like, consumers are time rich and money poor, right? It's like, they don't want to trade time for money like that, which is why I think, like, Google Assistant and Alexa, like, they've been really failu…”
Crivello: Drop-in AI worker replacements for businesses will arrive in 12-18 months
“I think, like, there is going to be a transformational moment for businesses where you have, like, the holy grail of AI agencies, like, what we call the drop-in replacement for a human worker. And I think that's coming in, like, 12 to 18 months.”
Crivello: OpenAI is burning cash on viral consumer toys because it raised $40B
“And like, OpenAI is burning money right now on the Ghibli thing, and they don't care because they raise like forty billion dollars to have infinite money.”
Crivello: Employers Must Mandate AI Tooling Due to Engineering Productivity Gap
“And I think that's the gap has grown so much now between the frontier of the level of productivity that you can achieve as an engineer as the median practice of the median engineer, especially in big companies that now employers have no choice, but to just lay…”
Crivello: Meta's Llama 4 Has Good Evals but Bad Vibes
“I will say, I feel bad for saying that because I have friends like the Lama team, but boy, like Lama for the vibes are really bad. Like the emails are good and the vibes are quite bad actually.”
Crivello: Agency middlemen for deploying AI agents will soon be obsolete
“I think it's temporary though, because AI agents are soon going to be simple enough. Again, if you have a drop in replacement for a human worker, it's going to be no more complicated than collaborating with your human teammate. So I don't know that you're goin…”
Crivello: AI agent team topology will be a primary driver of performance
“I think ultimately this, like the AI agent team topology, is going to be one of the main drivers of the performance of your AI agent setup, and I think at first it's going to be on you as a user to figure out that topology.”
Crivello: AI chiefs of staff will soon design and recursively manage agent teams
“Eventually, and in the not too distant future, you are going to have an AI agent design that for you. So we call that the AI chief of staff. It's just going to Manage all of your agents. And you can imagine this is recursively, right? Just like agents, managin…”
Flo Crivello: A 10% AI Extinction Risk Is Unacceptably High and Under-Discussed
“Look, even if it was low, like, 10%, that's unacceptably high. If you listen to the Dwarcush podcast on EI 20, 27, that's the part, I love Dwarcush, I love the podcast, but that's the part where I'm like, what? At some point they talk about Pidoum, and one guy…”