The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Gilbert: Amazon will inevitably surpass Walmart in total global revenue
“If you look at the gap that Amazon closed in total revenue since the time they were founded to Walmart, they're going to catch them. No doubt about it.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:58:00 Walmart · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Microsoft will not make Activision games Xbox exclusive following the acquisition
“People are worried about with the Activision deal about whether Microsoft would make Activision's games exclusive on Xbox. I don't think they will.”
David Rosenthal Mar 7, 2022 ▶ 2:10:28 SONY (75 years of electronics history in 3 hours) · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Neoclouds Will Offer Google TPUs in the Coming Months
“I think within a year it might happen. There are rumors already that some NeoClouds in the coming months are gonna have TPUs.”
Ben Gilbert Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 3:31:22 Google Part III: The AI Company. Google is amazingly well-positioned... will they win in AI? (Audio) · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Rep. Gonzalez: Congress is close to legislating on stablecoins
“We're getting to a point as a Congress, which is really nice, where I feel like we're getting close to finally legislating on it, specifically around stable coins. We'll see if we get there, but I think that's sort of the first bite of the apple coming off the…”
Anthony Gonzalez Aug 2, 2022 ▶ 49:49 From NFL to Startup COO to Congressman Regulating Crypto (with Rep. Anthony Gonzalez) · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Gilbert: Walmart should win same-day grocery delivery via Supercenters
“In my bull case, there's, they kind of should win same-day grocery delivery since they have these super centers everywhere.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:32:36 Walmart · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Rosenthal: Amazon will soon pass Walmart in total revenue
“The only larger one being Walmart, which Amazon will almost assuredly pass very soon.”
David Rosenthal May 12, 2022 ▶ 29:41 Arena Show Part I: Idea Dinner + YC Continuity · Acquired
Prediction Held up
McCormick predicts Not Boring will cross $1M in revenue in 2021
“And I have a few pieces kind of coming up, and so I think chances are we're going to just kind of cross a million dollars in 2021.”
Packy McCormick Dec 3, 2021 ▶ 1:37:25 Not Boring (with Packy McCormick) - Extended Cut · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Rosenthal: Ford and Red Bull Will Score a Podium in Their First Season
“Whereas Ford is coming in with Red Bull, one of the top teams, like they're going to be on the podium from season one.”
David Rosenthal Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 3:35:43 Formula 1: Fast cars, celebrities, and B2B software (Audio) · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Gilbert: TSMC will ramp its 2nm process in the second half of 2025
“I think they're actually doing the small production runs, getting ready to ramp in the second half of this year on the two nanometer process.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 27, 2025 ▶ 2:32:30 TSMC founder Morris Chang · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Predominant enterprise AI GPU compute consumption will occur via the cloud
“It looks like the predominant way that companies are going to use that compute is gonna be in the cloud.”
David Rosenthal Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 51:44 Nvidia Part III: The Dawn of the AI Era (2022-2023) (Audio) · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Costco operates at an 11% gross margin and will never expand it
“Even though Costco is only an 11% gross margin business, and only ever will be an 11% gross margin business, it's still a pretty amazing business to own.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 1:49:11 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Rep. Gonzalez: Congress will likely pass fiat-backed stablecoin legislation
“What I think you'll probably see is some sort of law that enshrines a quote payment stable coin. That language has been used in a couple of different bills. A payment stable coin as essentially a fiat backed stable coin.”
Anthony Gonzalez Aug 2, 2022 ▶ 1:05:03 From NFL to Startup COO to Congressman Regulating Crypto (with Rep. Anthony Gonzalez) · Acquired
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