The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 411 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rep. Gonzalez: January 6 was an unforgivable assault inspired by Trump
“My view remains that it's an unforgivable assault on the country. And it was led by the former president who was inspired by him. And ultimately my view, which I think is coming out in this January six commission is that he kind of liked it and kind of liked w…”
Schultz: Coffee in Italy is no longer as good as it once was
“The by and large coffee in Italy is not as good as it once was. There are certain coffee companies that have maintained the standard, but by and large, the coffee is not as good.”
Munger says top venture capital earners are trend-chasers, not great investors
“The people who made the most money out of venture capital are a lot like investment bankers deciding which hot new area they're going to get in. They're not great investors or great at anything.”
Munger claims BYD founder Wang Chuanfu is better at manufacturing than Musk
“The guy at BYD is better at actually making things than Elon is.”
Calacanis: Andreessen Horowitz is a soulless index fund of venture capital
“I think they're just an index adventure. I find it quite soulless, if I'm being honest. Like, I feel like it's a giant index on venture, and I don't think that their hearts are super into it.”
Netflix functions as a utility button, not a brand with emotional equity
“The Netflix brand doesn't mean anything to anyone. The Netflix brand is the button that I push on my TV when I want to watch stuff. And sometimes it's great stuff, but if it's not great stuff, whatever. It whizzes by. I don't think one way or another about Net…”
The NFL blackballed Colin Kaepernick following his 2016 national anthem protests
“The NFL blackballed Colin Kaepernick after this.”
Michael Lewis argues private companies are much better run than public ones
“I think there's an argument to be made that in any industry where they're both private and public companies, the private companies end up being much better run. And I mean like that mostly bad things happen when companies go public and certainly less pleasant.”
Meta AI's User Numbers Are Inflated by Accidental Instagram Searches
“That was complete garbage. That was people searching Instagram who accidentally hit a llama model that made some things happen, and they were like, oh, go away. I actually am just looking for a user.”
Ballmer: Google remains only a one to one-and-a-half trick pony
“I might argue that Google's a one to one and a half trick pony. Still. I mean, if you just look at its revenue.”
Rosenthal: The IPL is structurally superior to the NFL
“To me, this is not a controversial statement. The IPL is better set up structurally than the NFL. It is the Most perfect sports league that exists.”
Gilbert: Cambridge Analytica impacting the 2016 election is wildly oversold
“They had an incredible treasure trove of data that apps could slurp up in the early 20 tens, but the actual narrative of Facebook data that Cambridge Analytica had impacted election results is, like, wildly oversold.”
Rosenthal: Taylor Swift Enterprise Value Is $11B Using Disney's 20x Multiple
“Disney trades at 20 X free cash flow. Taylor is five hundred and fifty million in free cash flow. That's a eleven billion dollar enterprise value for Taylor.”
Zuckerberg: Meta's post-2016 political strategy was a 20-year mistake
“My guess is if the IPO Was a year and a half mistake. I think that the political miscalculation was a 20 year mistake.”
Rosenthal: Steve Ballmer and Ray Ozzie deserve all credit for Azure's vision
“I kind of think all of the credit for the vision for it and the championing it for the initial seven years within Microsoft goes to Steve and to Ray.”
Schultz: Mobile Order & Pay is Starbucks' biggest Achilles' heel
“It is the biggest Achilles heel for Starbucks. And it's not even a close second.”
Schultz: Starbucks developed hubris and shifted to playing defense over time
“The worst thing that could happen to a company is believing that you are incapable of doing anything but succeeding, and you deserve the success. But if you start playing defense and don't have the offensive mind, it's not going to go well. And I think over ti…”
Munger says short-term gains should be taxed without any loss offsets
“If I were running the world, I would have a tax on short-term gains with no offset for losses on anything. And I would just drive this whole crowd every ball of business.”
Munger says consistently investing well in venture capital is nearly impossible
“It's very difficult to invest money well, and I think it's all but impossible to do time after time after time in venture capital.”
Munger claims most startup operators end up hating their venture capitalists
“By and large, having bumped into a lot of people in the businesses with venture capital financing, I would say the ordinary rule is that people in the business doing the work, they more or not, they hate the venture capitalists. They don't feel their partner t…”
Munger claims private fund managers enrich themselves while underdelivering to endowments
“The world is full of Goldman Sachs partners that formed a private fund, and they manage a billion dollars or something like that, and they charge two points off the top plus this, and that enables them to make very handsome livings themselves, but the endowmen…”
Munger calls John Malone a great manipulator who avoided paying income taxes
“Well, I've never liked John Malone's extreme manipulations. I don't want to be known as the great manipulator like John Malone is. He paid less income taxes than anybody.”
Munger says business forecasting fails when CEOs like Bob Iger prioritize PR
“Well, I think a lot of companies are pretty good, but you can't confidently say what's going to happen because you may get some guy like Iger in that just wants to push everything and do the right public relations. So no matter how good the business is, it'll …”
The SR-71 Blackbird Was Effectively a Decoy for Space Satellites
“This is heretical to say, because it's so beloved, but I think the Blackbird was a decoy. We were getting everything we needed from space. We just didn't want anybody to know about it.”
Boyle: Healthcare, housing, and education costs rose because tech hasn't touched them
“Everything has come down the cost curve, like televisions are less expensive, everything is less expensive in consumer land, except for healthcare, except for housing, and except for education. And it's really because technology has not touched those sectors, …”
Boyle: VC creates jobs while private equity fires people
“Private equity and venture capital as a category could not be more different from what they are doing. Venture capital is creating new things from nothing, and it is creating more jobs, it is Pouring money into companies so that they can grow, expand, and solv…”
Eich: Mozilla became captured by Google and cannot compete on distribution
“When I was thinking about Brave, I realized not only had Mozilla become captured by its search partner and was probably going to die because it couldn't compete, not just on Chrome intrinsic qualities, but on distribution, which really matters at scale.”
Eich: Google is complicit with digital ad fraudsters by collecting fees
“And that Google still gets the fee when this advertising money is stolen by fraudsters makes Google complicit with the fraudsters to some degree. It misaligns the interests again. It's a conflict of interest.”
Taylor Swift's Original Masters Are the Music Industry's Most Overvalued Asset
“There has never been a more overvalued asset in the music industry than the masters for Taylor Swift's original albums at three hundred million today. Not only is she actively devaluing them, but the whole industry is at complete peak for what people are willi…”
Bankman-Fried: The two dominant crypto futures exchanges in 2018 were 'shitshows'
“There are only two real players in it, and they're shitshows. But they're still printing money, despite being shitshows.”
Gilbert: 21st Century Fox Is Disney's Worst Major Acquisition
“But certainly it's the worst of the four big acquisitions, five if you include BamTech.”
Gilbert: Iger Erred by Appointing Chapek for Peacetime
“Ultimately, I kind of think they just chose the wrong guy in Bob Chapek, and I think Iger's mistake in recommending Bob Chapek for the job was thinking that the company was about to enter a peacetime.”
Keeping content exclusively on Disney+ severely limits Disney's downstream IP monetization
“So they do have Disney Plus. It does have a hundred and thirty million people subscribed, but a 130 is not 350. And so your content that you want to drive people to the parks and to merch is only reaching 40% of the people that it could if it were on Netflix, …”
Nintendo's intellectual property rivals Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm combined
“Nintendo is like Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm combined. I mean, they have some of the very best IP in the entire world. They've got three franchises that can stand toe to toe with anything at Disney in Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon.”
Vanguard represents the most extreme historical example of business counterpositioning
“I think this may be the most extreme example of counterpositioning ever. Bogle did something that was essentially non-economic. There's no economic incentive to create this company in the first place. Their ownership and fee structure was an advantage that can…”
Ferrari Is Arguably the Only Legitimate Luxury Brand Founded Post-1950
“I think you could maybe even argue they are the only legitimate luxury brand established in the second half of the 20th century.”
The 2011 Google Brain 'Cat Paper' Drove Hundreds of Billions in Revenue
“I think it's not that much of a leap to say that the cat paper led to probably hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue generated by Google and Facebook and ByteDance over the next decade.”
Google's DeepMind Buy Directly Spawned Modern AI Labs
“This company and this purchase of it by Google was the butterfly flapping its wings equivalent moment that directly leads to OpenAI, ChatGPT, Anthropic, and basically everything.”
DeepMind Would Be Worth $500 Billion as an Independent Company
“This is an asset that Google owns today that, again, I think is worth half a trillion dollars if it's independent.”
2017 Began a 5-Year Period of Google Failing on Transformers
“It is fair to say that 2017 begins the five-year period of Google not sufficiently seizing the opportunity that they had created.”
Google Chrome Kept the Web Alive as a Viable Application Platform
“I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that Chrome kept the web alive. As a viable platform for applications.”
Google Is the Only Tech Giant to Extend Its Business Across Eras
“Nobody stretches a business model across technology eras. Nobody. And Google did it.”
Dimon: The $2T private credit market is not a systemic risk
“So there, it may, there may be something in there that would become a problem one day. I don't think it's systemic. So that two trillion, the mortgage market when the time it blew up was, I'm going to say, nine trillion, and a trillion dollars was lost.”
Dimon: US critical infrastructure protections are inadequate for cyber war
“But it is, you're talking about grids and communications companies and water and even part of the military establishment. The protections are not what you need. If we ever get any kind of war where cyber is involved, and China is very good at it, and so is Rus…”
Dimon: SVB and First Republic took excessive interest-rate risk known to regulators
“Both those had, they took too much interest rate exposure, known to management, and it was known to the regulators, and, you know, ah, and fixable.”
Dimon: Citigroup's conglomerate acquisitions like truck leasing lacked strategic fit and added risk
“Whereas, you know, Citi had consumer, consumer finance, that didn't fit. Life insurance, that didn't fit. Property, that didn't, they eventually got rid of them all. Sandy just wanted to do more of them. You know, he bought an American general, which did truck…”
Rosenthal: Google Has the Best Business Model in Corporate History
“It's the same beautiful ballet where every piece of the Google business model works together and reinforces the other pieces, and in concert it creates the best business model of all time.”
Ballmer: One of my major regrets is Microsoft losing its consumer muscle
“One of my regrets is we lost the consumer muscle along the way, because I think the ability to be ultra ultra, I mean, we're a great company, Microsoft's great company, but to have both of those muscles totally firing, if I'd been able to sustain that consumer…”