The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 345 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chang: Tim Cook told me in 2011 that Intel cannot run a foundry
“And anyway, he told me there's nothing to worry about because Intel just does not know how to be a Foundry.”
Ballmer: Bill Gates and I did not speak for a year after I became CEO
“I think it was basically from sometime in about March or April of 2000 to 2001. I mean, literally we weren't speaking. I didn't know what it meant to be his boss and he didn't know what it meant to work for me.”
Morris Chang: Mark Liu declined TSMC BD role due to small headcount
“So, I, ah, first offered the marketing, ah, business development job to the guy who was in the Bigger job, advanced technology, Mark. And I explained to him that I did not think he had had any significant marketing experience in the past, and this would, this …”
Chang: None of Taiwan's PC makers liked dealing with Intel
“Before this Apple thing, Apple and we, before Apple became our customer, I knew a lot of Intel's customers in Taiwan. You know, all the PC makers are Intel's customers. I mean, they, none of them liked Intel. None of them.”
Zuckerberg: Meta's 2016 political mistake will take another 10 years to resolve
“I think that the political miscalculation was a 20 year mistake. And so it started in 2016... And I think it's going to take another 10 years or so for us to kind of fully work through that cycle before our brand and all of that is back to kind of the place th…”
Schultz: An Il Giornale investor tried to hijack the 1987 Starbucks acquisition
“Jerry gave me about, I think he gave me 90 days to raise 3.8 million dollars. Around the second month, he just came to me and said, where are you with all this? And I think I had about half of it raised. I might have fibbed a bit and said I had a little bit mo…”
Munger claims China's economy has better 20-year prospects than most
“Well, my position in China has been Well, that the Chinese economy has better future prospects over the next 20 years than almost any other big economy.”
Costco delayed its China entry for decades after refusing a $30,000 bribe
“The first store they tried to open in China, the first store somebody wanted a 30,000 dollar bribe. You know, Chinese culture. And they just wouldn't pay it. And that made such a bad impression on Jim Senegal. He wouldn't even talk to him going into China for …”
Lasky: Traditional sports owners who bought franchised esports teams hold dead assets
“I spent five years talking those owners, like the existing sports owners who had terrible FOMO from like dumping money into these things, and some of them took my advice, and some of them didn't, and ended up in, you know, with some really dead assets. But tha…”
Calacanis: California will be damaged for a decade or two
“I think Austin's kind of the future. I think California's gonna be damaged for a decade or two. So I think for the rest of our adult lives, this town.”
Calacanis: Andreessen Horowitz's long-term returns won't match Benchmark or Sequoia
“I think in the arc, it will not be comparable to benchmark at Sequoia.”
Ovitz: Michael Eisner undercut me at every opportunity at Disney
“When I got to Disney, it was very clear there was a head-to-head conflict, and Michael undercut me every chance he could, and after a couple years, I just didn't want to deal with it anymore”
Extensive research uncovered zero evidence that Walt Disney was anti-Semitic
“I turned over every stone I possibly could on this company, and we spent, I don't know, the better part of the year so far researching this, and I found zero evidence of that.”
The NFL is the largest single-property media business in the world
“I'm pretty sure the NFL is the largest single media business in the world. Not an aggregate diversified media business, but like, if you consider the league as a single property, then I think it is the largest individual single property in the world.”
Gilbert: Networks will overpay for NFL rights until economics break
“I continue to think that networks are just on this treadmill where they're just going to keep paying more and more and more for NFL rights until is actually non-economic for them to do so, but then they'll be in so deep that it's pretty hard to recover from th…”
Google TPUs Are Only Scaled AI Chip Deployment Besides Nvidia
“They're a chip company with their Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, which is the only real scale deployment of AI chips in the world besides Nvidia GPUs.”
Waymo Can Become a Google-Sized Business if Costs Drop
“You could see a path to a Google-sized opportunity for Waymo as a standalone company just through this analysis, as long as they figure out a way to get costs down to the point where they can run this as a large and profitable business.”
AI Data Center Costs Are Over 50% Chips, Under 6% Power
“I've seen estimates that over half the cost of running an AI data center is the chips and the associated depreciation. The human cost, that R&D is actually a pretty high amount because hiring these AI researchers and all the software engineering Is meaningful.…”
AI Chat Ad Rates Will Be Dramatically Higher Than Search Ads
“So, there should be an ad model that emerges, and ad rates should actually be dramatically higher because you have perfect precision.”
Google's AI Market Share Will Stabilize Between 25% and 50%
“They own 90% of the search market. I don't know what they own of the AI market, but it ain't 90%. Is it 25%? I don't know, but at steady state it probably will be something like 25, maybe up to 50%, but This is going to be a market with several big players in …”
AI Will Capture the Highest-Value Search Query Use Cases
“AI might take away the majority of the use cases of search, and even if it doesn't, I bet it takes away a lot of the highest value ones.”
Dimon: Bank One held more credit risk than Citibank under aggressive accounting
“I quickly realized that BankOne had more U.S. Corporate credit risk
Than Citibank did.
And they, the way they accounted for it was unbelievably aggressive.
And, you know, so they had less capital, less reserves, less this.
They were calling these things profit…”
Dimon: Banks earning 30% ROE pre-2007 mostly went bankrupt in 2008
“If you look at the history of banks from up until 2007, a lot of banks were earning 30% equity.
Most of them went bankrupt.
We never did that much.
Okay.
But in oh eight and oh nine, we were fine and they weren't.”
Ballmer: Microsoft wasn't seen as an enterprise company until late 2000s
“It was the late 2000. You know, certainly it wasn't before 2005. It wasn't the beginning of my tenure. We were still trying to prove that we were an enterprise company.”
Ballmer: Gates strongly disagreed with Microsoft making Surface, phones, and HoloLens
“Disagreed about whether we should do hardware. That was a big one. We did, you know, surface was a big disagreement. Phone, big disagreement. HoloLens. Big disagreement.”
Rosenthal: BCCI controls world cricket talent via wealth and veto rights
“The BCCI has cornered resource access to the best talent in the world. Because they have all the money, and they have the Indian fans who care about watching the best Indian players, and they have essentially veto right over the best Indian players playing any…”
Rosenthal: Winning the Super Bowl is a net-negative fiscal event for an NFL team
“Winning the Super Bowl is actually like a net negative economic event for an NFL team.”
Rosenthal: IPL could rival the NFL in size by age 30
“And in theory, by the time it is, call it 30 years old, could be as big as the NFL.”
Gilbert: Only a complete paradigm shift can unseat TSMC
“I think the only thing that will unseat TSMC is a complete paradigm shift.”
TSMC will soon create more value than the entire prior silicon industry
“So it is true that the value that TSMC will create in the world over the next year, two years, three years, is probably more than the entire silicon industry leading up to this point combined.”
Mars has generated billions in profit from commodity trading operations
“Rumors are, these are rumors, but heard from multiple places, Mars has actually made Many billions of dollars of profit from commodity trading over the years.”
Mars is so private it does not produce financial statements for bankers
“No one knows what their balance sheet looks like, including their bankers. They don't produce financial statements for their bankers.”
Chocolate sales will not decline despite widespread adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs
“Even if everyone starts taking Ozempic, I don't actually think chocolate sales are gonna fall.”
IKEA has no direct globally scaled furniture competitor in 2024
“IKEA does not have a direct competitor today in 2024. There is not a single other globally scaled furniture business in the world.”
Sandberg Bet on Mobile Because Zuckerberg's Control Prevented His Firing
“And when they sort of arrived at this plan of, we are going to forego a lot of desktop revenue to basically bet it all on figuring out mobile revenue, she said, well, Mark, nobody can fire you, and only you can fire me, so if you're in, I'm in.”
Zuckerberg: Holographic smart glasses will be the ultimate form of AI
“It's going to be, I think, the ultimate Digital social experience, and I think it's also going to be the ultimate incarnation of AI, because you're going to have conversations where it's like, alright, there's some people, it's like maybe like, I'm physically …”
Zuckerberg: Meta brand will take another 10 years to recover
“I think it's going to take another 10 years or so for us to kind of fully work through that cycle before our brand and all of that is back to kind of the place that it maybe could have been if I hadn't messed that up in the first place.”
Zuckerberg: AR and AI smart glasses will become completely ubiquitous
“I'm pretty sure glasses and kind of, like, holographic presence and AR is going to be a completely ubiquitous Product, right? It's just like everyone who had a phone before replaced it with a smartphone, and then a lot of more people got smartphones. If all we…”
Zuckerberg: Apple is Meta's primary competitor in ideological open-vs-closed race
“I expect them to be our primary competitor, and I think it will not be Just a product competition. I think it's like a, in some ways, very deeply values driven and ideological competition around what the future of the tech industry should be”
Zuckerberg: Full-scale AI will arrive before AR holograms
“A few years ago, I would have predicted that AR holograms would have been available before kind of, like, full-scale AI. And now I think it's probably gonna be the other order.”
Zuckerberg: Apple will be Meta's primary rival in ideological platform war
“I think Apple will have a place for sure. I expect them to be our primary competitor, and I think it will not be Just a product competition. I think it's like a, in some ways, very deeply values driven and ideological competition around what the future of the …”
Gilbert: Microsoft shelved finished Office for iPad project in 2013
“And absolutely, 100% something that happened is all 200 of us worked for multiple years to get these things ready. We had a ship date. Well, we had what we thought was a ship date. Actually, what happened was we were told that actually we're gonna shelve it. A…”
Schultz: Previous Starbucks leadership diluted coffee quality to maximize yield
“Because the previous administration had done things that diluted the integrity of coffee to maximize yield.”
Schultz: Straight espresso is Starbucks' number one selling beverage in Italy
“Two, three years later, what do you think the number one beverage is? It's espresso. For Starbucks. Straight espresso. Espresso is the number one beverage.”
No other major quant fund operates with a single unified model
“No other at scale investment firm period, and especially quant firm operates this way today with just one model.”
Munger claims quant firms achieve high returns through increasingly massive leverage
“And the way they get their returns year after year is taking the leverage, the midday leverage up higher and higher and higher and higher. So they're making smaller and smaller profits on more and more volume, which gives them this big peak leverage risk, whic…”
Endowments across America are slashing effective private fund fees by 50%
“The endowments have started to say to the, all these people that charged three and 30 or whatever they charge, they said, we'll pay your three and 30, but we're going to put in twice as much money, and then the next half you'll get nothing on it, or you're jus…”