The Ledger

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why aren't all 48 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Gilbert: Amazon will inevitably surpass Walmart in total global revenue
“If you look at the gap that Amazon closed in total revenue since the time they were founded to Walmart, they're going to catch them. No doubt about it.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:58:00 Walmart · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Gilbert: Walmart should win same-day grocery delivery via Supercenters
“In my bull case, there's, they kind of should win same-day grocery delivery since they have these super centers everywhere.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:32:36 Walmart · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Rosenthal: Amazon will soon pass Walmart in total revenue
“The only larger one being Walmart, which Amazon will almost assuredly pass very soon.”
David Rosenthal May 12, 2022 ▶ 29:41 Arena Show Part I: Idea Dinner + YC Continuity · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Costco pays an average hourly wage of $26 versus Walmart's $19.50
“Costco's average hourly wage is 26 dollars, and Walmart's is nineteen-fifty.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 31:28 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Costco generates approximately ten times more revenue per SKU than Walmart
“The average revenue per product, because of the SKU count, at Costco is about 10 times Walmart.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 1:30:26 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Costco generates $1,800 per square foot versus Walmart's $600 and Target's $450
“Target's about 450 dollars per square foot of revenue. Walmart's about 600 dollars. Costco is 1800 dollars per square foot of revenue.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 2:04:07 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
92% of Costco's merchandise is cross-docked compared to 10% for Walmart
“92% of Costco's merchandise is cross-stocked. Only 10% of Walmart has cross-stocked merchandise on a pallet system like this.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 1:47:29 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Walmart's 1998 Amazon trade-secret lawsuit settled with no damages
“In late 1998, Walmart sues Amazon for trying to steal trade secrets. The case settles with no damages, but there was damage. It happened. That DNA came right out of Walmart and right into Amazon.”
David Rosenthal Aug 16, 2022 ▶ 2:06:59 Amazon.com · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Walmart ended handgun sales in 1990s and assault rifles in 2015
“They stopped selling handguns in the nineties. And now after the shooting in the store, they don't sell guns to people under 21. In 2015, they stopped selling assault rifles.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:53:55 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Walmart controls over 20% of the US grocery market
“So Walmart has over 20% market share of us groceries. Kroger has under 10% and then Albertsons and Costco are tied at five percent each.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:59:30 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
Rosenthal: Grocery accounts for 55% and over $300B of Walmart revenue
“In the last most recent fiscal year, grocery accounted for 55% of Walmart's total revenue, which is over three hundred billion dollars alone just from grocery.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:00:20 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
The Walton family retains over 50% ownership of Walmart 60 years later
“It is still controlled by the Walton family, who owns just over 50% of the business a full 60 years after it was founded.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:59 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Walmart Had Negative Free Cash Flow for Its First 15 Years
“Walmart for the first 15 years that it was public had negative free cashflow for each of those years. Walmart was profitable on the income statement, but they were investing like crazy.”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 23:05 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Trader Joe's stores average 15,000 square feet versus Walmart's 150,000
“Trader Joe's today average about, call it 15 thousand-ish, maybe a little less square feet per store. The average supermarket is like 50,000 square feet, and the average Walmart is like a 150,000 square feet.”
David Rosenthal Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 1:01:43 Trader Joe’s: Hawaiian shirts and counter positioning (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Ben Gilbert: Apple and Tiffany lead retail with $5,500 and $3,000 sales per foot
“Costco is 1800 dollars a foot. They are trying to maximize their dollar per foot. Walmart is about 600. Target is about 450 dollars. And then these, like, crazy businesses, just to compare it to the all-time greatest, Tiffany is 3000 dollars a foot for jewelry…”
Ben Gilbert Nov 18, 2024 ▶ 2:44:42 IKEA (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Costco turns its inventory 12.4 times yearly compared to Walmart's 8
“Costco actually turns their inventory 12.4 times per year. And just for comparison, Walmart turns their inventory eight times per year. Home Depot is more like five times per year.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 57:33 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart and Kmart carried around 50,000 SKUs during Price Club's launch
“So at the time, Walmarts and Kmarts had on the order of about 50,000 SKUs and even FedMart had Probably close to that many at the time.”
David Rosenthal Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 49:14 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Costco is the third-largest retailer in the US behind Amazon and Walmart
“And you're the third biggest player in the largest market, you know, America, behind Amazon and Walmart.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 2:02:22 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
The typical Costco shopper earns $125,000, roughly 70% above the US median
“There was an independent research firm that found that the typical Costco consumer makes about a 125,000 dollars a year in household income and has a four-year degree. Walmart, by comparison, has a median income of about 80,000 dollars. And keep in mind, the m…”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 1:20:18 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Khosrowshahi: Walmart uses Uber's fulfillment services without joining its marketplace
“So for example, Walmart, Isn't in our marketplace because they're Walmart, they have an incredible brand, et cetera, but they use our fulfillment services”
Dara Khosrowshahi Jun 13, 2023 ▶ 58:24 Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Linkabit's First Commercial Project Was Walmart's Satellite Network
“Linkovitz first project is doing the satellite communication system. For Walmart.”
David Rosenthal Nov 15, 2022 ▶ 35:12 Qualcomm · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Walmart ran private satellite network for 12 years by 1997
“At this point, they had been the largest computerized logistics distribution company in the world and operated their own private satellite network to communicate amongst all their stores and had been doing that for a dozen years.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 16, 2022 ▶ 2:01:42 Amazon.com · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Amazon pitched running Walmart's website, but Walmart declined
“They even go pitch the idea to Walmart to do the same thing with Walmart. Walmart is they're like, Yeah. No, thanks guys. No, nice try.”
David Rosenthal Aug 16, 2022 ▶ 2:42:23 Amazon.com · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Walton Enterprises partnership structure prevented unilateral stock sales and takeovers
“And this is why, because the family were all partners in Walton Enterprises. They couldn't just sell their stock. The partnership, the family as a whole had to decide to sell, and that allowed them to keep majority control of Walmart all through the history.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 26:42 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
Rosenthal: Walmart is the largest US commercial producer of solar power
“So like Walmart, I think is now the largest U S commercial producer of solar power.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:52:22 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Early Walmart managers held equity in their own and their peers' stores
“And remember all these managers were equity owners in their own stores and in most cases in the stores of all the other managers too.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:28:23 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Walmart reached Washington in 1993, one year before Amazon was founded
“The first store opened in Washington in 1993 and Amazon was founded in 1994.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:52:35 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Home Depot modeled its employee stock purchase program on Walmart's
“Home Depot modeled their employee stock program purchase program after Walmart's, and it's brilliant. It's the same thing. You put up your own money, but you can do it pre-tax dollars out of your paycheck at a 15% discount to the stock price.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:05:22 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
US e-commerce retailers two through nine combined trail Amazon by 50%
“If you add up two through nine in e-commerce, and Walmart is second place to Amazon, it is still not equivalent to Amazon's total sales in a year. And in fact, I think it's something like two through nine added together are still 50% shy of Amazon's e-commerce…”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:59:57 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
The Waltons are the world's wealthiest family with multi-hundred-billion-dollar net worth
“The Walton family goes on to be the wealthiest family in the world. All of Sam's future generations are worth a few hundred billion dollars, depending on the day that you look at Walmart's market cap, since it's nearly all invested in Walmart, but it's a multi…”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 14:24 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Kmart operated at a much larger scale than Walmart for a long time
“I didn't realize that Kmart for a very long time was much, much larger than Walmart. They were kind of Walmart's big brother incumbent.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 39:18 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Rosenthal: Walmart Supercenter grocery prices are on average 15% cheaper
“So most items by and large, on average, across the board, the grocery items in a Walmart super center are 15% cheaper than a comparable grocery store, which if you're like a middle or lower income family, that's hundreds of dollars a month that you're saving, …”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:58:35 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Walmart surpassed Sears as America's largest retailer by 1990
“So, by 1990, Walmart passes Sears to become the largest retailer in America.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:51:53 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart generates nearly $600 billion in revenue on a 4% operating margin
“They did close to six hundred billion dollars of revenue last year. They did twenty-five billion dollars of operating income. That's only about a four percent operating margin for those counting at home.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:18:03 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart spent $24 million in 1987 to build a private satellite network
“So, they invested twenty-four million dollars to link all stores with a two-way voice and data transmission and a one-way video communication from Bentonville. And basically, there was not enough bandwidth available on any other communication lines.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:46:45 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart operates at 24% gross margins, between Costco's 13% and Target's 30%
“If you look at Walmart's twenty-four-ish percent gross margin, so that's basically what they get from the goods that they sell on the shelf, you see, ok, it's less than Target, which makes 29 30% of anything that they sell on the shelf. Well, Costco's gross pr…”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:20:28 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Walmart's Revenue Growth Slowed to ~3% Annually Since 2013
“If we look back, all the way back to, let's see, 1982, They were growing about 40 to 50% a year, and that has basically been on a slow, steady decline all the way until about 20 13, where it's been about flat at three percent since then.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:24:24 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart operates 10,500 stores and serves 230 million customers weekly
“There's 10,500 stores. Each week, two hundred and thirty million customers visit one of these stores.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:17:25 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart is the world's largest company by revenue at nearly $600B
“It is the largest by revenue in the world, doing nearly six hundred billion dollars a year in sales.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:41 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Walmart Bought a 77% Stake in Flipkart for Over $16B in 2018
“Walmart bought 77%, I think, stake in Flipkart back in I think it was 2018 for over sixteen billion dollars”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:23:25 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
90% of the US population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart
“Today, 90% of America lives within 10 miles of a Walmart, but there are three places where that is not true, and a fourth kind of where it's technically true but not in spirit.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:14 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
In 1967, Kmart generated $800 million compared to Walmart's $10 million
“By like 1967 ish Kmart has 250 stores all across the country doing eight hundred million dollars in sales. And the new Walmart concept, Walmart revenue was still only around ten million dollars at that point in time”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:30:34 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart is the largest non-governmental employer with 2.3 million workers
“It is the world's largest employer, other than public entities like governments employing nearly 2.3 million people around the world.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:52 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
E-commerce accounts for roughly 13% of Walmart's total revenue, around $75 billion
“Only about 13% of Walmart's revenue comes from e-commerce. Now, that's seventy-five billion dollars.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:06:18 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Walmart operates at 20-24% gross margins vs 33%+ historically
“Walmart probably has a gross margin between 20 and 24% at any given time, and every store had like a 33% gross margin. Even the, like, Target is sort of like a high-end discounter. It's sort of like a nicer stuff, more expensive. They're in the 29% category, b…”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:11:53 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart compounded revenue at 40% in the 1970s and 32% in 1980s
“So Walmart's compound annual revenue growth rate for the whole decade of the 19 seventies was 40.1%, four 0.1% for the whole decade. And then in the 19 eighties, it was 32.4%.”
David Rosenthal Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 1:42:49 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Early Walmart locations operated as individual companies with localized equity
“Each store was actually its own company, so that different people could sort of hold shares in each store. The management, different people who, you know, wanted to invest in the store, that sort of thing.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 26:11 Walmart · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Walmart's US revenue is approximately triple Costco's US revenue
“So, Walmart's revenue today is about three times Costco in the US.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 1:30:10 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
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