The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rosenthal: TSMC will likely be sole manufacturer at 3nm node
“So, very likely in the next process, it's just going to be TSMC.”
David Rosenthal Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:20:14 TSMC · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
TSMC and Aramco are the only non-US West Coast trillion-dollar firms
“They and Saudi Aramco are the only trillion dollar companies in the world that are not located on the west coast of the United States.”
David Rosenthal Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:50 TSMC · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
TSMC is spending $12 billion in Arizona for non-leading-edge fabs
“They are spending, I think, twelve billion dollars this year to start a plant in Arizona, which will not be the three nanometer, I don't even think it'll be the five nanometer.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 2:01:33 TSMC · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
Nvidia split consumer and data center GPU architectures in September 2022
“Up until NVIDIA's current GPU generation, the hopper generation of GPUs for the data center, there was only one GPU architecture at NVIDIA, and that same architecture and those same chips from the same wafers made at TSMC, some of them went to consumer gaming …”
David Rosenthal Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 1:06:05 Nvidia Part III: The Dawn of the AI Era (2022-2023) (Audio) · Acquired
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rosenthal: NVIDIA Hopper will be TSMC's first 4nm chip
“I think Hopper is going to be the world's first four nanometer process chip using TSMC's new four nanometer.”
David Rosenthal Apr 20, 2022 ▶ 1:21:40 Nvidia: The Machine Learning Company (2006-2022) · Acquired
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