The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 102 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rosenthal: NVIDIA Hopper will be TSMC's first 4nm chip
“I think Hopper is going to be the world's first four nanometer process chip using TSMC's new four nanometer.”
David Rosenthal Apr 20, 2022 ▶ 1:21:40 Nvidia: The Machine Learning Company (2006-2022) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Nvidia and TSMC signed a multi-year foundry partnership that remains today
“The next year, the two companies sign a huge multi-year deal for TSMC to become the primary foundry for NVIDIA and still are today.”
David Rosenthal Mar 28, 2022 ▶ 1:03:21 Nvidia: The GPU Company (1993-2006) · Acquired
Disclosure
NZS Capital: Microsoft and TSMC anchor resilient portfolio with ~10% turnover
“And so this would be a company like companies we own in the head of the portfolio, be someone like a Microsoft or a TSMC where we're not looking for like value stocks or kind of like cheap companies. We're looking for companies that are healthy growers that we…”
John Bathgate Nov 3, 2021 ▶ 17:32 Complexity Investing & Semiconductors with NZS Capital (Extended Cut) · Acquired
Disclosure
Bathgate: TSMC never exceeds a 10% portfolio position due to geopolitical risk
“I mean, I guess it'll never be our, like, a 10% position for that reason as there is always this risk”
John Bathgate Nov 3, 2021 ▶ 1:25:29 Complexity Investing & Semiconductors with NZS Capital (Extended Cut) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
ASML took nine years between first EUV shipment and high-volume production
“They shipped the first EUV tool in 2010 to TSMC, and EUV didn't even really start high volume, and this was after, you know, a decade of R&D already, but then they didn't start high volume manufacturing on EUV until 2019. So they had, like, almost a decade of …”
John Bathgate Nov 3, 2021 ▶ 1:40:07 Complexity Investing & Semiconductors with NZS Capital (Extended Cut) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Morris Chang returned from retirement at 78 to secure Apple's business
“Morris Chang is Founded TSMC at age 56, retired at 74, then came back at age 78, inked the deal to make all of Apple's chips”
David Rosenthal Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 2:56 TSMC · Acquired
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