why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Andreessen Horowitz's long-term returns won't match Benchmark or Sequoia
“I think in the arc, it will not be comparable to benchmark at Sequoia.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sequoia refused to raise a mulligan fund after the dot-com crash
“We interviewed Doug Leone who was, you know, one of the, I guess, two stewards ago of Sequoia, and he told us that after the dot-com crash for the Sequoia fund that was the dot-com bubble fund, every other venture firm out there, after the bubble popped, were …”
What-if
Benchmark almost assuredly could have won a slot in Google's Series A
“But could they have beaten one of those two firms to get one of the two primary VC slots in Google? Almost assuredly. I mean, at this point, this was Bench where they had just done eBay. You know, they were at the height of their powers. They were the internet…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sequoia Capital acquired a massive secondary stake in Epic
“One fun thing is at one point in time, I think this was probably the 2000, maybe a pretty good chunk of those shares Made their way to Sequoia Capital.”
Disclosure
Calacanis: Sequoia offered a 50/50 carry split on early scout deals
“It was like you know, at the time, they carried fifty-fifty. Fifty-fifty at the time. They dropped it down after that.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Miller: a16z and Sequoia will launch retail-accessible funds within five years
“And I'm gonna bet you that within five years, the likes of Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, also launch funds just like this.”
Opinion
Rosenthal: Sequoia selling Apple early is investing history's biggest mistake
“I think this is probably the single biggest mistake, period, in investing history.
I don't see, I don't think there's any way that it can't be, definitionally.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2025
Larry Page Pre-empted Benchmark and Sequoia to Acqui-hire Sebastian Thrun
“He and some, I think it was grad students, were in the process of starting a company, had term sheets from Benchmark and Sequoia.”
Assertion Supported
Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins aggressively split Google's Series A round
“Famously, Kleiner and Sequoia end up splitting the deal, and Michael Moritz and John Doerr, the two most legendary VCs in the world, they team up, they join forces, they split the deal, and they both join the board of Google at the Series A.”
Assertion Supported
Top VCs gave Google a $100M Series A valuation pre-revenue
“They just...
Paid a hundred million dollar post for a Series A company with no revenue.”
Disclosure
Calacanis: My initial Uber investment was Sequoia's money as a scout
“That was Sequoia's money.”
Assertion Supported
Sequoia invested in Instagram 48 hours before the Facebook acquisition
“It's also funny that Sequoia claims Instagram was one of their investments where it sold 48 hours after they invested.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Sequoia invested $150k in Apple and sold entirely for $6M
“Ah, Don invested a 150,000 in Apple computer in 1977.
And then, 18 months later, they had an opportunity to realize one of the greatest venture returns of all time.
They made a forty-X on that investment.
They sold their shares for six
Million dollars before t…”
Insight
Gilbert: Moore's Law guarantees tech addressable markets keep expanding
“As long as Moore's Law continues to hold and computing power continues to get exponentially cheaper, The markets that technology can attack should keep getting bigger and bigger.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rosenthal: Nvidia Raised a $2M Seed Round at a $6M Valuation
“Two million dollar total round. I don't know who invested what. I assume a million each, but two million dollar total round at a six million dollar post money valuation.”
Opinion
Rosenthal: Early Sequoia Nvidia investment is one of the best venture returns ever
“I think a lot of the GPs at Sequoia and certainly Mark Stevens, who was one of my professors at GSB. Who was on the board for Sequoia is still on the board have held their shares personally for like to this day. Like that's one of the best venture investment r…”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Sequoia charged 30% carry on its fund at the time
“And they had 30% carry at Sequoia at that point, I think.”
Assertion Supported
Roelof Botha experienced a prolonged dry spell after early YouTube success
“He took over for Leone, right? And one of his very first investments was YouTube. So right out the gate, he's crushing it. But then he hit a dry spell, and it was really hard on him, and it was hard on the partnership, and he talks about it.”
Assertion Supported
Benchmark and Sequoia split Webvan's $7 million round with $3.5 million each
“So it's a seven million dollar round. Benchmark splits the deal with Mike Moritz at Sequoia. Sequoia does three and a half million. Benchmark does three and a half million. Moritz and Byrne join the board.”
Assertion Supported
Google's Series A with Kleiner and Sequoia was valued at $100M post-money
“The Series A that would happen shortly thereafter of Google famously split between John Dora Kleiner and Mike Moritz at Sequoia was at a hundred million dollar post-money valuation, which was insane for the Point in time.”
Assertion Supported
Nvidia IPO'd at a $600M Valuation in 1999
“They go public in beginning in 1999 at a six hundred million dollar market cap. So a hundred X return from the six million dollar post money valuation on the Sequoia and Sutter Hill round”
Assertion Contradicted
Rosenthal: LSI Logic IPO delivered historic $153M return to Sequoia
“LSI logic, which had just gotten public and we've talked about it on the show made Don Valentine and Sequoia the then largest venture return in an IPO in history, maybe the largest venture return ever in history when they went public of a hundred and fifty thr…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Nvidia raised about $20M in total venture capital before going public
“They did raise some more money in between that initial two million and going public. I think they raised twenty million in total, but like there wasn't a lot of window and I think it was Sequoia and Sutter Hill that put that capital in for the rest of that twe…”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Tiger, Coatue do seed as Sequoia restructures for public holdings
“We are watching hedge funds like Tiger Global and KOTU come all the way down to seed investing, and we're simultaneously seeing classically early stage venture capital firms like Sequoia completely reinvent their structure to hold on to their winners longer Ev…”