The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Chang: Apple placed initial 16nm chip orders with Samsung over TSMC
“I mean, it was a real shock when I heard that Apple had placed their first orders of 16 with Samsung.”
Morris Chang Jan 27, 2025 ▶ 1:52:00 TSMC founder Morris Chang · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Chang: TSMC launched 16nm six months later and won most Apple orders
“We developed, we had our own 16 about half a year later, and most of Apple's 60 nanometer requirements still belonged to us.”
Morris Chang Jan 27, 2025 ▶ 1:54:38 TSMC founder Morris Chang · Acquired
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rosenthal: TSMC will likely be sole manufacturer at 3nm node
“So, very likely in the next process, it's just going to be TSMC.”
David Rosenthal Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:20:14 TSMC · Acquired
Assertion Supported
TSMC holds over 90% global market share in 5-nanometer chip manufacturing
“In the five nanometer, Samsung has like five, 10% market share, and TSMC has 90 plus percent.”
David Rosenthal Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:48:07 TSMC · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Bathgate: Intel, TSMC, and Samsung bought 25% of ASML to fund EUV
“Intel and TSMC and Samsung partnered and actually bought 25% of ASML to inject capital into ASML to develop EUV systems.”
John Bathgate Nov 3, 2021 ▶ 1:44:40 Complexity Investing & Semiconductors with NZS Capital (Extended Cut) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Apple's early iPhones relied on off-the-shelf Samsung processors
“They weren't designing their own chips. They just used an off-the-shelf Samsung chip.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:33:34 TSMC · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Johns: Samsung controls 50% of DRAM and one-third of NAND market
“They have 50% of the market share in DRAM and about a third of the market share in NAND.”
Brinton Johns Nov 3, 2021 ▶ 1:15:29 Complexity Investing & Semiconductors with NZS Capital (Extended Cut) · Acquired
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