why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Chang: Apple placed initial 16nm chip orders with Samsung over TSMC
“I mean, it was a real shock when I heard that Apple had placed their first orders of 16 with Samsung.”
Assertion Supported
Chang: TSMC launched 16nm six months later and won most Apple orders
“We developed, we had our own 16 about half a year later, and most of Apple's 60 nanometer requirements still belonged to us.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rosenthal: TSMC will likely be sole manufacturer at 3nm node
“So, very likely in the next process, it's just going to be TSMC.”
Assertion Supported
TSMC holds over 90% global market share in 5-nanometer chip manufacturing
“In the five nanometer, Samsung has like five, 10% market share, and TSMC has 90 plus percent.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bathgate: Intel, TSMC, and Samsung bought 25% of ASML to fund EUV
“Intel and TSMC and Samsung partnered and actually bought 25% of ASML to inject capital into ASML to develop EUV systems.”
Insight
Johns: Samsung's consumer hardware division creates a foundry trust deficit versus TSMC
“Samsung is also doing logic, but it's, they have a different business model, right? They compete with their customers. So it's harder for their customers to trust them. Whereas TSMC doesn't have that conflict.”
Assertion Supported
Apple's early iPhones relied on off-the-shelf Samsung processors
“They weren't designing their own chips. They just used an off-the-shelf Samsung chip.”
Assertion Partly supported
Johns: Samsung controls 50% of DRAM and one-third of NAND market
“They have 50% of the market share in DRAM and about a third of the market share in NAND.”