The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
John Foley sold $96M of Peloton stock near its 2021 peak
“John Foley sold ninety six million dollars of Peloton stock in 2021 when the price was really high and he was talking about what a strong future the company still had in front of it.”
Ben Gilbert predicted in 2022 that Peloton would be acquired soon
“I think two years from now, I think the most likely thing is that it's acquired by someone”
Peloton raised its original bike price to $2,245 to signal luxury
“People thought it was, the hardware couldn't be that great if it was 1200 dollars, and they realized that if they raised the price up to 2245 dollars, that then in people's minds, this becomes this, like, jewel, premium, expensive, aspirational, luxury product…”
Peloton simultaneously canceled its factory, laid off 2,800, and replaced its CEO
“They lower guidance significantly. They pull the plug on Peloton Output Park. They cancel the plans to build the manufacturing facility in Ohio. They lay off 2800 people. And Barry McCarthy is riding in as the new CEO.”
John Foley and his co-founders control over 57% of Peloton's voting power
“According to Peloton's proxy statement, he controls 39.6, so right around 40% of the voting power of Peloton's stock, and his co-founders own another 18%.”
Peloton's digital trials spiked 10x to 1.2M users at COVID-19's onset
“Six months ago, we had about a 100,000 digital subscribers for the business. And within 45 days of COVID hitting they gave this deal that said, you're not getting a month free, you get three months free because people need to work out at home. And within 45 da…”
Tiger Global invested $5M in Peloton's Series B at $35M post
“By leaf Excel in 2014, it was a ten million dollar total round on a thirty five million post where Tiger put in five million. Tiger would go on to become the largest shareholder at IPO owning just under 20% of the business.”
Activist investor Blackwells Capital took a 5% stake in Peloton
“After that news on January 20th, a couple of weeks later, an activist investor called Blackwells Capital comes out and announces that they've accumulated a five percent stake in Peloton.”
John Foley retained $500M in Peloton equity despite the massive stock plunge
“His current remaining stock, even at the closing price on Monday was five hundred million dollars.”
Peloton accumulated $1.3B in unsold hardware inventory on its balance sheet
“They have piled up 1.3 billion dollars worth of bikes and treadmills, and it's just, it's not good to hold it on the books.”
Peloton nearly partnered with Flywheel for content before vertically integrating
“And they actually got to term sheet with Flywheel. I think SoulCycle sort of gave them the cold shoulder as sort of, you know, they were so hot at the time and so big and so dominant, but Flywheel, they actually got to terms on what would it look like to make …”
Peloton accounted for 28% of Affirm's revenue in the year pre-IPO
“At the time of IPO, of a firm's IPO, 28% of all of the revenue in the previous year leading up to the IPO was from the Peloton deal.”
Peloton pays music labels approximately 3.1 cents per song streamed
“According to a piece from Tricordist, which is a music industry site, Peloton pays out 3.1 cents every time that you are on a ride and hear a song.”
Peloton reported approximately 7% annual subscriber churn in fiscal year 2021
“And so when they reported their last full year fiscal end, I believe churn was like .6 monthly churn was like .6% worked out to about seven percent annual churn.”
Peloton's market cap peaked near $49B before retreating to $8B
“IPO at eight billion went all the way up to, I think, forty nine billion. And then today is floating a little above the IPO price between nine and ten billion.”
Peloton stock plunged 32% in one day following November 2021 earnings
“And then November of 2021, last fall, they miss earnings. They cut their Outlook, and the stock gets hammered down 32% in one day with the earnings announcement.”
Peloton's subscription gross margins are roughly 66%, trailing typical software margins
“About a third of the revenue that comes from subscription, so not like the physical bike sales, but if you just look at the Subscription revenue. A third of that goes to cost of revenue. And while we don't know for sure, it's very likely that the majority of t…”
Music publishers sued Peloton for up to $300M in 2019
“Earlier in 2019, they get sued for first one hundred and fifty million dollars, and then they up it to three hundred million dollars by the music publishers, national music publishers association because they're obviously using all this music as part of the cl…”
Peloton dropped 11% on its opening day to a $7.2B valuation
“The IPO is, is not a good one prices around eight billion dollars, but then trades down 11% on opening to a 7.2 Billion dollar market cap.”
Peloton maintained approximately 40% gross margins on its hardware at IPO
“Interestingly, the hardware revenue connected fitness products is the segment. They call it also about a 40% gross margin.”
Peloton spent $730M on marketing to add 1.4M subscribers in FY2021
“In the most recent full fiscal year, which ended June, 30, 20, 21, they spent seven hundred and thirty million dollars on sales and marketing and they added about 1.4 million gross ads on subscribers.”
Peloton's headcount ballooned from 4,000 to 9,000 employees in one year
“When you look at as of January, 20, 21, they had 4000 employees that ballooned over the next year to about 9000 before these recent layoffs.”
John Foley raised Peloton's initial $400K seed at a $2M valuation
“He ends up raising 400,000 dollars to start from friends and family at a two million dollar post money valuation.”
Peloton faced a four-month hardware delivery backlog by September 2020
“September of 20 20, it's basically impossible to get one of these, the Peloton bikes at all. There's like a four month backlog.”
Peloton grew its membership from 700,000 to nearly 3 million during COVID-19
“They grew membership from 700,000 to nearly three million.”
Peloton owns its own hardware delivery and distribution network across America
“They own all their own distribution, and they're driving around neighborhoods all over America.”