The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 26 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
United States officials alleged Novo increased insulin prices 600% since 2001
“In 2021, U.S. Officials alleged that Novo Nordisk increased prices more than 600% between 2001 and 2019 in lockstep with competitors to the detriment of diabetics.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:41:34 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
The Novo Nordisk Foundation blocked a proposed Serono merger in 2004
“Management comes in, they present in two board meetings, first in August, 2004, and then the second one in September where they get a do over and they fail to convince the foundation board. So they block the merger.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 1:39:49 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Novo Nordisk's 84% gross margins surpass Microsoft and Google
“Gross margins are better than software. They run about 84%. Lilly is also a very high margin company, running about 80%. For context, Microsoft has a gross margin of 70% and Google is 56%.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:24:28 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Massive GLP-1 demand will enable multiple pharma hits like insulin
“I think this is going to be like insulin all over again, where there's just going to be a series of product improvements and companies will drive innovation and increase supply. I mean, the demand is so huge out there that Monroe can be a huge hit. Ozempic and…”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:36:13 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Novo Nordisk awards no stock options to executives or board members
“Executives and board members are not given stock options as a part of their compensation.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 3:04:13 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Prediction Not checkable as stated
GLP-1s could surpass Humira and remain defensible for a decade
“So I think, assuming that Novo stays sort of neck and neck with Eli Lilly as they both keep coming out with better and better versions, that this could be the next Humira, or potentially much bigger than Humira. And I think the defensibility is an open questio…”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 3:35:25 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Semaglutide is twice as effective as liraglutide for weight loss
“Two, and much more important for the near term, it is twice as effective as liraglutide for weight loss.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:15:53 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2005
Novo Nordisk's CEO declared in 2005 that obesity was not a business
“As recently as 2005, 2005, like same year Baeta came out, Novo Nordisk's own official position on the obesity category, as articulated by the then CEO Lars Sorensen, was quote, Obesity is primarily a social and cultural problem. It should be solved by means of…”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:04:09 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Novo Nordisk surpassed LVMH as Europe's largest company by market cap
“Novo Nordisk has become Europe's largest company, surpassing even LVMH last year”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:11 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Novo Nordisk derives 85% of revenue from metabolic disorders
“85% of their revenue is dedicated to metabolic disorders. They are the second largest market cap pharma, second only to Eli Lilly.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:56:52 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
GLP-1 drugs generate 69% of Novo Nordisk's total revenue
“51% of their revenue comes from diabetes-focused GLP-I drugs, and an additional 18% from obesity-related GLP-I. So 69% of their revenue comes from semaglutide or liraglutide.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:23:21 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Novo Nordisk tests semaglutide for Alzheimer's and kidney disease treatments
“So currently, Novo has clinical trials going for semaglutide, like same drug, same GLP-I's, use case in treating cardiovascular disease, in treating Alzheimer's, in treating kidney disease, many others.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:26:19 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
What-if
Novo Nordisk survived only because of its foundation ownership structure
“And, foreshadowing, there is a moment much later in history where, absent the control of this foundation, Novo Nordisk would have ceased to exist. It is only because of this structure that Novo Nordisk survived, and that we have GLP-I's and everything we have …”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 34:48 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
Wegovy matched Saxenda's lifetime United States doctor prescriptions in one month
“So when Wegevee finally launches in the U.S. In 2021 as the official FDA sanctioned weight loss version of semaglutide, it gets the same number of prescriptions written for it by doctors. In the first slightly over one month than Saxenda had in its entire drug…”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:20:57 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
The Novo Nordisk Foundation controls 77% of voting shares
“The operating company is now publicly traded, but still, that foundation controls 77% of the voting shares of Novo Nordisk and 28% of the economic shares.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 36:53 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Novo Nordisk revenue grew from $20 billion to $30 billion recently
“Revenue goes from twenty billion in 2019 to 25 in 2021, Thirty billion in twenty-twenty-two, and in twenty-twenty-three, so far, and the first three quarters that they've reported, it is up another 30% year on year.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:22:51 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly controlled 95% of the insulin market
“So the new combined company has roughly a billion dollars in insulin revenue and 50%, five zero percent global market share with Eli Lilly just behind at 45% and host at five percent.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 1:33:27 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Novo Nordisk's founder nominated Banting and Macleod for the Nobel Prize
“The actual nomination for that prize was put forth by a previous Nobel Prize winner in physiology or medicine. The 1920 Nobel Prize winner from Copenhagen, Denmark, a animal biologist named August Crowe. Who also happens to be the founder of Novo Nordisk.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 17:01 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and Sanofi control the entire insulin market
“Sanofi today, yeah, the three of those companies are essentially the entire insulin market.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 1:20:31 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Novo Nordisk is controlled by a non-profit foundation
“This pharma giant is unique in that they are owned and controlled by a non-profit foundation.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 1:29 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Novo Nordisk's Victoza reached $1 billion in sales in 2011
“So year one in the first year that it's on the market, Victoza does roughly three hundred million dollars in sales. The next year, the first full year it's on the market in 2011, it does over a billion dollars in sales. Just in that year.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:08:44 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Liraglutide extends GLP-1 half-life to 13 hours in humans
“Liraglutide ends up having a half-life in the human body of 13 hours compared to, you know, like, a half-life of two and a half minutes for straight up GLP-I.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 1:49:05 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Ozempic exceeded $1 billion in revenue during its first full year
“Ozempic does over a billion dollars in revenue in 2019. It's first year on the market.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:19:23 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Novo Nordisk holds the semaglutide patent until 2032
“Novo Nordisk has the patent on semaglutide until 2032.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:45:46 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Semaglutide requires once-weekly injections compared to daily liraglutide doses
“One, it is much, much longer lasting in the body, so it only needs to be injected once per week instead of once per day.”
David Rosenthal Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 2:15:37 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Lego and Maersk share Novo Nordisk's foundation ownership model
“By the way, this is not that uncommon in Danish companies. Lego, same structure. Maersk, the shipping company, same structure.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 22, 2024 ▶ 35:07 Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) · Acquired
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