why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
McCormick: Independent creator-investors lose value when joining traditional venture firms
“As soon as I go in-house somewhere, Like I lose half of my value or, you know, X percent of my value as soon as I go in-house somewhere. And that is kind of one, even though, you know, I do do sponsored posts and all of that, there is like this independent voi…”
What-if
McCormick: I likely would have written a positive sponsored post on Theranos
“One of the tests that I always run for myself, and I probably actually would have failed this test, is if Theranos had come to me on a sponsored post, you know, however many years ago, chances are, frankly, I would have written something positive on Theranos b…”
Prediction Held up
McCormick predicts Not Boring will cross $1M in revenue in 2021
“And I have a few pieces kind of coming up, and so I think chances are we're going to just kind of cross a million dollars in 2021.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Not Boring can reach 1M subscribers within five years
“There's a path to this being a million person newsletter at some point in the next five years.”
Insight
McCormick: Winning founder allocation depends on if they are already active readers
“I don't think it's gotten, you know, any easier convincing founders to give me allocation at 50,000 readers or 88,000 readers. Like if they're a reader, then they kind of get it. And if they're not, then You know, they don't on the sponsorship side. It's diffe…”
Insight
McCormick: Playing an online persona makes creator work unsustainably difficult
“If you're not yourself, it's not like a be true to yourself kind of thing. It's like, you're going to have a miserable experience because all of your interactions are going to be other people wanting to interact with this persona, or if I were writing from a d…”
Insight
McCormick: Expanding creator brands beyond core content risks turning into shill factories
“The more I do of that stuff, the more dilutes the core thing. And the more it makes it seem like kind of a shill factory”
Insight
McCormick: Paid newsletters succeed when companies expense them for specific roles
“Lenny's audience is so specific and like, you know exactly who you are and who should be paying for that, which is people who do product or people who do growth. And not only do they know that they should be reading that and that they need to pay for it, their…”
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Not Boring is the number one business newsletter on Substack
“I did some research last night. Not Boring is the number one substack newsletter on business.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Substack is completely free for Not Boring's ad-supported model
“The most beautiful part about sub stack is because they've taken such a strong stand for subscriptions and against advertising. No one on their team has ever even reached out to me. And so I paid zero dollars for my main platform because they want to pretend l…”
Assertion Supported
McCormick: Not Boring reached 105,000 Twitter followers and 88,000 newsletter subscribers
“I'm like, you know, a 105 or something on Twitter and 88 in the newsletter.”
Insight
McCormick: Not Boring has severe key-person risk and momentum slows without me
“If I get hit by a bus, like not boring is just done. And that's like the extreme example and the example that everybody uses when they talk about one person things, but that means that like every week, if I don't show up and write something, the momentum slows…”
Disclosure
McCormick: I will not raise outside venture capital for Not Boring
“I think I don't want to raise money because then I'd have bosses and I don't think I'd get a valuation that I'd be happy to sell part of myself for.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Not Boring adds 1,000 to 2,000 subscribers per week
“It still grows a thousand to 2000 people a week, the newsletter, but a thousand to 2000 people a week is a lot different when you're at 40,000 versus 80,000.”
Assertion Supported
McCormick: Wrote roughly one million words for Not Boring in 18 months
“It's been probably close to a million words in a year and a half at this point.”