why aren't all 235 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Microsoft generated $381,000 in revenue in 1977
“They end in 1977 with 381,000 dollars in revenue, despite zero for the first, like, 11 months of the year.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft generated $16,000 in 1975 and $22,000 in 1976
“Microsoft does 16,000 dollars in revenue that year from their 30 dollars a pop the basics that are getting sold with the Altair, which is great, especially the first year that they're starting. And the next year in 1976, everybody's so excited about this new m…”
Assertion Supported
Regulators forced Microsoft to end per-processor OEM licensing in 1994
“Now, this is, of course, the way that regulators would look at it in 1994, and that would get Microsoft in some hot water, and they had to agree to stop doing this practice.”
Assertion Supported
Bill Gates and Paul Allen's founding equity split was 60/40
“Initially, it's sixty-forty ownership. Bill is 60%. Paul is 40%. Later, it gets changed to Bill is 64%, and Paul is 36%.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Cutler is still writing code at Microsoft today
“Like, he's still writing code at Microsoft today, which is amazing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
A 1977 arbitration dispute was Microsoft's only period of cash constraint
“The interim months while this arbitration is happening are the only moment in Microsoft's history where, like, cash gets tight. They're sort of running out of money because they can't really make any sales here.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's MITS contract required best efforts to commercialize BASIC
“And that clause is that MITS must use its best efforts to license, promote, And commercialize the basic broadly in the marketplace, and that any failure to do so by MITS would be grounds for termination of the contract by Microsoft.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's first application bundle launched on the Mac in 1985
“So in 1985, in January, the bundle is released, and it was originally called the Business Pack for Microsoft. And it started on the Mac.”
Assertion Supported
Only 360 people built Microsoft Windows 95
“There's only 360 people that built Windows 95, so it's still kind of a small team”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft's MITS deal paid $30 per copy plus 50% sublicense revenue
“And the terms of the deal are Microsoft is to get 30 dollars for each copy of BASIC that MITS sells, plus 50% of the revenue that comes from These sub-licensing deals that MITS may or may not do with other companies who want to use the BASIC.”
Assertion Supported
Excel copied Lotus 1-2-3's keyboard shortcuts to preserve user muscle memory
“So a lot of the keyboard shortcuts in Excel to this day are there because they were originally the Lotus one, two, three shortcuts, and they wanted people to have the same muscle memory that just worked.”
Assertion Supported
Steve Ballmer took over engineering management to ship Windows 1.0
“Steve Bomber gets drafted to come in and be the dev manager for the final push to release Windows one point out, which is hilarious.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft revenue jumped from $25M in 1982 to $98M in FY1984
“I believe that for calendar year, 1982, Microsoft's revenue was twenty five million dollars, and I think this must have been when they switched to fiscal year end and June 30th. So Microsoft's fiscal year end starting then and up through now is June 30th. So t…”
Assertion Supported
Steve Jobs showed Bill Gates the Mac project in 1981
“Steve Jobs Shows Bill Gates the Mac project in 1981. Three years before it ships. And Microsoft and Apple signed an agreement to work together on applications for it in 1982.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Microsoft's 6,000-person Office team consistently hit three-year planned ship dates
“I did always think it was absolutely incredible when I was at Microsoft and we would ship a version of Office every three years, I worked on Office 15, that the entire 6000 person organization had a process in place where we could release to manufacturing, RTM…”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft licensed BASIC to Apple for $31,000 over eight years
“So like the Apple deal is 31,000 dollars for eight years. Of access for Apple, for the Apple II to Microsoft's BASIC.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft had 75 million Windows users before Windows 95 shipped
“I mean, even before Windows 95 shipped, they had seventy five million Windows users.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's lifetime BASIC revenue from MITS was capped at $180,000
“And the kicker on this contract is that the total Amount of lifetime revenue that Microsoft can make from the Basic. From MITS is capped at a 180,000 dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft generated $5M in revenue and $2M–$3M profit in 1980
“And Dave's remarking at this point in 1980, they're doing five million in revenue, two to three million in profit.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft announced Windows in 1983 prior to the Mac's launch
“Starting in 1983, they're like, we gotta Do our own graphical operating system, or at least user interface, and this is the origins of the Windows product, and they actually announced it in November of 1983 before the Mac ends up shipping, which their partner …”
Insight
Document file formats created massive network effects before the internet
“The document formats are a huge network effect thing, even before the internet, even before organizations were networked and computers were networked outside of an organization. File formats. You're right. There's huge network economies to file formats.”
Assertion Supported
The PC market grew at a 98% CAGR from 1975 to 1986
“From 1975 to 1986, 11 years prior to their IPO, so founding to IPO, PCs grew
At a compound annual growth rate of 98%.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's 30-person staff outnumbered IBM's entire Project Chess team
“The Microsoft team of 30, which the whole company of Microsoft pivots to, like, work on the IBM PC Partnership is bigger than the project chess team in Boca.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft is the exclusive cloud infrastructure provider for OpenAI
“Microsoft is the exclusive cloud infrastructure provider for OpenAI, which runs, as far as we know, solely on NVIDIA infrastructure, but they buy it all through Microsoft.”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft employs five times more people per market-cap dollar than Nvidia
“They have 26,000 employees, and that sounds like a big number, but for comparison, Microsoft, whose market cap is only twice as big, has 220,000. So that is five X the number of employees per dollar of market cap going on over at Microsoft”
Assertion Supported
TVI was the only venture capital investor in Microsoft before its IPO
“But TVI, technology venture investors, they had the unique honor and what made them single-handedly really part of the then top tier of venture capital firms is they were the only venture capital investor in Microsoft.”
Assertion Supported
TVI invested $1 million for a 5% pre-IPO stake in Microsoft
“One million dollars to own five percent of the company. I don't believe they raised another dollar until the IPO.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Microsoft treats product management as marketing and program management as engineering
“Microsoft considers product management a marketing function. So it's owned in the marketing org and is much more go to market oriented, whereas Microsoft's program manager is in the engineering org. It's on the same comp ladder and same promotion ladder as eng…”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Amazon, Microsoft, and Google hold 40%, 22%, and 10% cloud share
“Amazon's got 35, maybe 40%. Microsoft's got 20 to 22%. Google's somewhere around 10%.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: NVIDIA trades at 3x Apple's P/S and 2x Microsoft's
“Nvidia has literally three times the price to sales ratio of Apple, or price to revenue as Apple, and nearly two x Microsoft.”
Assertion Supported
Xbox Game Pass generates $2 billion to $3 billion annually
“Microsoft is now up to eighteen million subscribers to Game Pass, which to your point, I think there's like a cheap version at 10 and then a more expensive version at 15. So every year as an annuity is generating two to three billion dollars on Game Pass.”
Assertion Partly supported
Eich: Microsoft was convicted for threatening Compaq over Netscape bundling
“They had the Windows Monopoly, but what they did in tying the browser to it and threatening Compaq with revocation of the Windows license if Compact Shift Netscape as the default browser was illegal, and they got convicted for it.”
Disclosure
NZS Capital: Microsoft and TSMC anchor resilient portfolio with ~10% turnover
“And so this would be a company like companies we own in the head of the portfolio, be someone like a Microsoft or a TSMC where we're not looking for like value stocks or kind of like cheap companies. We're looking for companies that are healthy growers that we…”
Assertion Supported
Johns: Texas Instruments generates higher operating margins than Microsoft
“Who has higher operating margins, Texas Instruments or Microsoft, right? Because I ask it, you know, the answer is, it's TI.”
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Microsoft Was the Only 2001 Top 10 Company Remaining in 2021
“So Microsoft is the only company that made the list both times.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft generated $27 billion in operating income in 2013
“Microsoft's operating income in 2013 was twenty seven billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Gates Promoted Mobile and Tablet Computing in 2001 Windows XP Launch
“One of which was Bill Gates was always talking about mobile computing, so much so that in the key slide in the Windows XP presentation, one of the big bullet points is mobile computing. All the way back in 2001, and Gates thought natural user interfaces was go…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Ray Ozzie named Microsoft Chief Software Architect in June 2006
“So in June, 2006, when Bill announces his coming retirement, Ray gets named as his successor in the official chief software architect role.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Windows Mobile Permitted Handset Makers to Modify Operating System Code
“The handset makers could modify the code of Windows Mobile. So, when you bought a handset, first and foremost, you were trusting the product quality of the people at the handset maker, and they had several OS's that they could buy and effectively start from.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft acquired Danger, maker of the T-Mobile Sidekick
“Microsoft buys Danger, the company that made the T-Mobile sidekick.”
Assertion Supported
PowerPoint creator Forethought was Microsoft's first major acquisition
“Forethought was the company that made PowerPoint. Microsoft acquired the first major acquisition for the company.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft generated $600M in FY1988 with almost nothing from OS/2
“Fiscal 88, they do six hundred million in revenue. Basically none of this is from OS two and the IBM world.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft is the world's most valuable company at over $3 trillion
“It is the world's most valuable company worth over three trillion dollars.”